Action packed forecast period

Good Tuesday, folks. There is no shortage of busy weather to talk about for the bluegrass state. We have several systems lined up to take aim at the region, with a lot of rain falling in the coming days. Eventually, this pattern takes on more of a wintry look.

Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are out there today, but it’s not going to rain all day. Winds will be gusty with temps in the 60s.

 

We go get one day break in the action on Wednesday. This will lead to slightly chillier air before another surge of mild and storms by Thursday. Locally heavy rains carry us into Friday.

Another massive system then makes a run at us later this weekend into early next week. This huge upper level system is likely to spawn a powerful storm system right on top of the region:

Euro

This can lead to high winds and heavy rains at the beginning, with a potential transition toward some winter stuff under the low by Monday:

Euro 2

Cutoff lows can get a little wild and this one has some potential to do just that.

The next week can unleash another 2″-4″ of rain across the bluegrass state. This is pretty crazy.

I’ve also been talking about how the cutoff system likely gets the ball rolling toward another back loaded winter with cold and snow. Well, here’s what the Euro shows following that upper low by the middle of next week:

Euro 3

Given the block showing up over the top, watch for that system, similar to the one this weekend, to trend farther south.

The ensembles 5 day temp average to end January:

Euro 4

Have a great day and take care.

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Warmer air joins the soggy setup

Good Monday, everyone. We are coming off one of he ugliest weather weekends I can ever remember around here. Things can only get better from here, right? Well, yes and no. Temps are going to warm up, but the soggy setup remains.

Temps today will surge toward the 60s on a strong southwesterly wind. Scattered showers will also be possible through the afternoon, but rounds of showers and storms kick in later this evening.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be around into Tuesday as temps stay in the 60s for highs.

We may catch a chilly break on Wednesday, but more showers and thunderstorms work in later Thursday and Friday.

Canadian

We continue to watch this pattern evolve toward another back loaded winter. One of the cool ways to illustrate this change is to look at the 500mb anomalies for the next 10 days on the European Model. Watch how the big warm ridge across the USA gets pushed north into Canada. As it does so it strengthens into a healthy block allowing bowling ball winter systems to roll eastward across the country:

Euro

That first massive cutoff low blows up across the region about a week from now. Watch how the surface low rapidly deepens toward the northwest:

Euro 3

Here’s a different look at that storm system:

Euro

Cutoffs like that can produce some very extreme weather and that is something we will be mindful off as we go through the next week.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Another active week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. We are wrapping up one of the ugliest weekends we have had in a long, long time. More of the same continues out there today, but some changes are coming for the week ahead.

Those changes include a surge in temps to go along with some rounds of showers and thunderstorms. As this March-like setup continues, Old Man Winter is plotting his revenge for the following week.

Highs today range from the mid 30s in the north to near 60 in the far southeast. Additional showers and gusty winds will be notes:

Monday will find the warmer air wins the battle by Monday on a strong southwesterly wind. Temps should hit the 60s with showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the day. Those will continue into Tuesday as a weak cold front moves in:

GFS

After a brief drop in temps, the next system quickly ejects out of the southwest and brings more showers and thunderstorms in here for the end of the week:

GFS 2

At first glance, that looks like a severe weather maker to our south, with the potential to move into our part of the world. Worth watching.

After that, we continue to find all the models following the theme of the past several winters… Back loaded snow and cold.

There is strong agreement for a major cutoff storm system late next weekend into early the following week:

Euro

Watch how the European Model wraps this system up and allows cold air in here:

Euro 2

Those setups can lead to high winds and thunderstorms to start, with cold and snow moving in as winter overwhelms the pattern.

The GFS is also showing this:

GFS

This follows along very well with what the ensembles have been screaming now for a few days. They continue to point toward a full blown back loaded winter kicking in:

GFS GIf

It’s pretty amazing at how the extremes this winter has thrown at us, so it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see this pattern absolutely tank. It would certainly follow the precedent set by the past several winters.

Have a great day and take care.

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A very ugly weekend of weather

Good Saturday, everyone. If you look up the definition of ugly weather in the dictionary, it will simply tell you to look outside. The weather we have out there right now is just flat out nasty and will carry us through Sunday.

Highs today range from the low and mid 30s in the north, where there could be some ice, to the mid and upper 40s in the south. Rounds of showers will continue to roll through the region from west to east:

There is very little change in the weather through Sunday. This is pretty much a “what you see is what you get” type of a forecast.

Temps surge again by Monday and Tuesday with readings heading toward the 60 degree mark. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will be possible during this time.  This looks like a surge of rain that will be followed by a brief chill down on Wednesday:

GFS 2

In this active pattern, there’s no shortage of systems ready to take its place. Watch how the action increases again by Thursday and Friday:

GFS 4

It’s after this system that we start to see Old Man Winter flex a little muscle. The European Model shows an interesting scenario late next weekend with a huge cutoff storm system developing:

Euro 2

Notice how the higher heights show up in Canada instead of the United States. That allows for a much colder setup with an active southern storm track.

The GFS Ensembles also are on board for this winter pattern taking over:

GFS 3

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Spring and winter battle it out

Good Friday to one and all. It’s a much colder day out there as winter and spring have a little battle across our region. This fight might set the stage for some ice across northern parts of the state.

In the overall scheme of things, this slugfest in temps means a very active weather pattern over the next week or so.

Temps Friday will be a lot lower than what we had out there Thursday. Highs will range from the low and mid-30s in the north to near 50 in the far south. A gusty shower or two will be noted, with a small threat of freezing rain across the far north:

We know there will be a huge temperature difference from north to south across the region over the next few days. That’s a given. What remains to be seen is exactly where the 32-degree line sets up as additional waves of precipitation move in.

The farther north you are, the more likely the chance of seeing freezing rain from later Friday through Saturday night. The Canadian model freezing rain accumulation map remains largely unchanged:

Canadian

You can clearly see how the far west and far north have the most likely chance of freezing rain, but those will come at different times.

Milder air then surges northward again by later in the weekend and Monday. This could open up the floodgates for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. The GFS keeps spitting out some impressive rain totals:

GFS Rain

Once past this week ahead, winter threatens to take over just about the same time it has each of the past three winters. That’s something I didn’t think would happen this year, but Mother Nature does her own thing.

Right on cue, we are seeing the operational models and the ensembles going in that direction. The latest GFS:

GFS Gif 7

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A wild temperature ride on the way

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a spring-like day out there across the Bluegrass State, but much colder air is blowing in for the next few days. This could set the stage for some freezing rain in a few areas across the north.

As mentioned, Thursday is a very mild day, with highs in the 60s on a gusty southwesterly wind. Scattered showers will be possible ahead of a cold front moving in later in the evening. That front might have a line of very gusty showers and thunderstorms ahead of it:

The arctic front then moves in Thursday night, erasing the mild from northwest to southeast. Temps by Friday morning drop into the low and middle 30s, and this could touch off some freezing rain in the north and west.

That ice threat still has us walking a very fine line across the Bluegrass State. The greatest chance for some freezing rain will be across the north. The latest freezing rain threat maps from the WPC really show that well:

WPC

WPC 2

WPC 3

WPC 4

 

We have to wait and see exactly where that 32-degree line sets up, but it’s safe to say it will be in the vicinity of Northern Kentucky.

Once we get into Sunday and Monday, temps surge again on a strong southwesterly flow. That flow is ahead of a slow-moving upper level that will cause additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and roll across the region. Rain totals over the next week are impressive:

GFS 2

Obviously, those kinds of totals can cause some high-water problems.

Once we get through all that, the same pattern of the past six weeks shows up as things trend much colder. The European ensembles from WeatherBell shows the return very well:

Euro 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Big temp swings could bring some wild weather

Good Wednesday, everyone. Gusty winds are blowing some big temperature swings into Central and Eastern Kentucky. These swings can touch off everything from thunderstorms to freezing rain. Let’s buckle up for the ride.

Winds won’t be as gusty Wednesday, but they will start to crank again later Wednesday night and Thursday. Gusts of 40 to 45 mph gusts will be possible again. This is along a warm front that could touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms:

I have no real changes on the potential as we roll forward. An arctic front will dive in by Thursday night and Friday and hang out for a few days. Depending on exactly where that sets up will be the deciding factor on where the freezing rain sets up.

The trend of the Canadian and European models continues to be a little colder for the entire weekend. The Canadian model now shows a pretty expansive area of freezing rain:

canadian-2

The temp trend on the European model keeps that freezing line right on top of the region on and off through the weekend. Here’s Friday morning:

img_0016

Here’s Saturday night:

img_0017

The WPC is now closely watching the potential for freezing rain Friday. Here are the percentages of seeing freezing rain by different times Friday:

wpc

wpc-2

wpc-3

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Rain kicks off a volatile setup

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are rolling out of a bitterly cold pattern and rolling into one that has a very volatile look. Some wild temperature swings are on the way, and this could result in everything from thunderstorms to some ice.

Tuesday’s showers might start out as a touch of frozen stuff early. Very gusty winds will be noted as temperatures begin to climb and showers take over.

The showers are ahead of a cold front that puts the brakes on and returns to the north as a warm front by Wednesday. This could touch off a few rumbles of thunder:

nam

Winds can reach 40 mph during this time as temps really begin to spike. Readings by Thursday shoot into the 60- to 65-degree range.

Showers and some thunder will be noted into Thursday night as the leading edge of arctic air closes in. The numbers for Friday continue to look threatening for some ice across parts of the state:

euro

Here’s a better look at the dramatic temperature drop:

euro-4

Here’s where the European model has us by Friday afternoon:

euro-2

Notice the magic 32-degree line digs pretty deep into Kentucky as precipitation continues. That could very well mean a period of freezing rain into Friday night.

After that, we might see that front head back to the north as a warm front by Saturday night into Sunday. That could return our temps to 60 for a day or two, ahead of another storm system.

Precipitation totals over the next week and change continue to run on the high side:

canadian

We will just take a wait and see approach on this whole setup, but wild temp swings are a given!

Have a great day and take care.

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Active weather this week

Good Monday, everyone. Our frigid weather is about to take a break and will be replaced by a very active period. It’s a setup that can bring some wild temperature swings to go along with various precipitation types.

Milder air is pushing in Monday and could touch off some very light snow and flurries. Highs will go above freezing for the first time in several days:

Showers increase Tuesday and take us into Wednesday. This will be accompanied by temps on the increase, and those numbers can hit 60 by Thursday.

As the numbers climb, another brutally cold air mass is moving into the northern part of the country. Check out this contrast in temps by Thursday:

euro-3

Watch how the battle zone sets up right on top of our region by Friday:

euro-2

That’s pretty incredible and will lead to some nasty weather from the lower Plains into the Ohio Valley. For us, you can see the line we are walking in terms of winter weather. It is my experience that arctic air tends to expand a littler farther south than models show from this far out. We will see how that works out in the coming days.

One thing is for sure, that type of temperature gradient is loaded with precipitation. Check out the straight up precipitation totals through next weekend on the models:

GFS

gfs-rain

Canadian

canadian

Everything from flooding rain to snow and ice, to a combo of the three are possible late this week and next weekend.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Bitter cold finally starts to ease

Good Sunday, everyone. We are wrapping up a brutally cold weekend across the bluegrass state. Morning lows have been near or just below zero over the past couple of mornings. This air is finally beginning to ease up and that will leave us with a much different looking and feeling week ahead.

Highs today will hit the upper teens to around 20 with clouds on the increase. Those clouds can spit out a snow flurry or two:

As temps climb early in the week, showers develop by Tuesday.

This looks to be the start of a very active, and potentially wild pattern. It’s one that can put our region in the dividing line between arctic cold to the north and spring temps to the south. Each of those temp patterns can oscillate back and forth across Kentucky.

The late week setup is an intriguing one from a couple of aspects. It can bring thunderstorms and torrential rains before the potential for ice and snow.

I actually like what the GFS is doing with this by late Thursday and Friday:

gfsWatch the change from storms to winter in just a few hours:

gfs-2

That could very well feature a 40+ temperature swing along that boundary.

Often when I see situations like this, the heavy rain threat immediately pops into my mind. Check out the GFS rain totals over the next week or so:

gfs-rain-2

The Canadian Model just gave the GFS a “like”:

canadian

The GFS then brings that boundary back into Kentucky early the following week and does the same thing all over again. The two week rain totals from that run of the GFS:

gfs-rain

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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