Strong storms possible

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a potent cold front dropping into the region today and it’s bringing the potential for severe storms. This low-end risk will usher in another brand of nice air to start the week, but things turn steamy and stormy to end the week.

Today’s front sweeps east by the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be developing and a few could be strong or severe. Here’s the risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary players from the storms going up. These boomers will also put down a lot of rain that can lead to local high water issues.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Let’s break down the weather for the week ahead:

  • Monday looks awesome with a mix of sun and clouds with highs ranging from 80-85. Humidity levels will be low.
  • Tuesday is another pretty nice summer day as temps rebound into the middle 80s with a dry sky.
  • Steamy temps return for Wednesday through the rest of the week. Readings may be back into the upper 80s and low 90s for highs with humidity levels making it feel even hotter.
  • Rounds of thunderstorms may also increase during this time and continue into next weekend. These storms may help us out in the temperature department.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Better weather blows in today

Good Saturday, folks. It’s a really nice weather day taking shape across the region, but we have another front on the move for Sunday. That will bring a renewed threat for strong thunderstorms across our region. There’s also a steam vs storm battle taking shape later next week.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Humidity levels and temps are down compared to the past several days with most areas in the middle 80s.

There is still the threat for a storm or two going up, but the chances are fairly low across central and eastern Kentucky. The west is closer to the Sunday front, so they have a better risk for some late day storms and a few could be strong. Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The low-end threat for severe storms then moves east into much of the state for Sunday:

Damaging winds and large hail are the main players. These storms will also have a lot of rain, so local flash flooding issues may develop. I will get to your tracking tools in a bit.

Monday looks awesome with highs 80-85 with low humidity and a mix of sun and clouds. I can’t rule out a morning shower in the east, but the day looks dry.

Temps take off for the middle and end of next week with the west seeing the hottest air. However, the clear trend is now for more thunderstorm action to work across the state through next weekend:

GFS

CANADIAN

EURO

Some big time thunderstorms can move around a heat ridge like that, so we will need to be mindful of this going forward. Thunderstorms can knock the numbers down.

I leave you with your Saturday radars:

Have a great day and take care.

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Cold fronts bookend the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have a cold front dropping into the region today with another coming up on Sunday. These fronts will bring some showers and storms in here, but the big news will be the better brand of air. Yes, humidity levels and temps will both come way down.

As always, let’s begin with today. As the front moves in, scattered showers and storms kick in. A few of these may be on the strong side and put down heavy rains. Here are your tracking toys to end the week:

Tropical Storm Fay is along the east coast continues to work northward along the coast:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

This is the earliest F named storm on record. Here’s the track from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Nothing like a July tropical system hitting New York City. Keep doing your thing, 2020.

That forces the next system to dive in here from the northwest by Sunday and reinforces the pleasant air we have ahead of it on Saturday. Showers and storms will accompany our gusty front:

Temps behind this will be pretty darn awesome to start the week with low humidity and temps only in the 80-85 degree range for Monday. Lows may even sneak into the high 50s:

The second half of next week will see a plains heat ridge move east, but how long and strong it gets around here remains to be seen. The latest 7 day height anomalies from the GFS Ensembles aren’t quite as strong:

One of the things that could also cut into the numbers… Rounds of storms. We are seeing more of a storm signal showing up on the models…

GFS

CANADIAN

We shall see about that.

Have a happy Friday and take care.

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Big changes on the way

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another hot and humid day as more rounds of storms develop as we continue with a similar pattern to recent days. The good news is we have some big changes on the way for the weekend as two cold fronts sweep in here and bring much better air.

Today is back into the upper 80s to low 90s for most of the state. High humidity levels will make it feel like the mid and upper 90s at times. That same high humidity will help crank thunderstorms that can put down a ton of rain in a small time span. These storms may also briefly go severe with damaging winds the main threat.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Before we get to the weekend systems, let’s talk about the system off the east coast. This continues to become tropical as it hugs the coast all the way to New England:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

That system will ride northward along the east coast through the weekend and could have a decent impact all the way into southern New England:

Two fronts dive in behind this system to impact our weather from Friday through the weekend. The first front arrives Friday with showers and storms on the increase. Strong storms and heavy rains will once again be possible. Temps and humidity levels come down behind this for Saturday and it feels pretty good. Our Saturday sky may look pretty darn nice, too.

A potent system drops in here Sunday with booming thunderstorms a good bet. Here’s a look at both systems:

Temps are generally in the low and middle 80s into early next week. Make sure to enjoy that because the hottest air of the summer may very well move in here later next week:

If you recall back in early May, the main analog to the late season record cold was 1966. That gave Lexington the coldest May temp ever recorded while this May gave us the second coldest May temp ever recorded. 1966 went on to feature a period of real deal heat (mid-upper 90s) in July, before below normal temps ensued from August through the winter. As a matter of fact, August 1966 couldn’t even get to 90 in Lexington. Interesting.

Happy Thursday and take care.

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More of the same

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s the middle of the week and we have the rubber stamp out for the forecast. The weather for the next few days looks and feels a lot like where we have been since this past weekend. If you’re looking for change, the coming weekend will likely bring some changes.

As always, let’s kick things off with what’s going on out there today. Highs are back to around the 90 degree mark with a heat index coming in with mid and upper 90s at times. Scattered storms will go up again this afternoon and evening and some could be strong.  We will also have to be on guard for locally heavy rains.

Here are your tracking tools for the middle of the week:

Guess what Thursday brings? If you said more of the same, you win a free subscription to Kentucky Weather Center. 😉

We continue to watch our disturbance slowly working off the southeast coast. This will emerge into the Atlantic and may become a tropical system as it lifts northward along the coast:

That continues to show up on the models as two systems dive in behind it, impacting our weather. The first arrives Friday with an increase in storms and the next one comes Sunday. Both could bring some strong or severe storms:

EURO

EURO

CANADIAN

Temps will come way down behind each of these and it will actually feel comfortable for a while. Once all that moves east, we will need to watch for another blossoming plains heat ridge trying to make a run at us.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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More storms on the move

Good Tuesday to one and all. Rounds of showers and storms are targeting the region again today as our steamy setup continues. This pattern looks to persist into the next few days, but a weekend cold front drops in here and brings a little bit of late weekend relief.

. Highs today range from the middle 80s to low 90s with very high humidity levels. This will fuel more storms to go up and we should see a little better coverage than the past few days. Strong to severe storms are possible on a local scale today. These storms will also have a ton of rain with them that can cause flash flooding.

This is cloudburst season in Kentucky, so be on guard. Here are your storm tracking tools for the day:

This same pattern will be with us for Wednesday into Thursday, so we will be on guard for additional storm issues.

At the same time, we are watching the southeast coast for the possibility of a tropical system taking shape. This could develop and ride up the east coast:

As this storm rides up the east coast into the weekend, a couple of systems move in here behind the departing storm. The first is a strong cold front that could touch off some big storms on Friday, then another system comes in over the weekend:

That is part of a deepening trough that may cut off from the main flow into early next week:

Obviously, this will knock the temps way down. Ain’t life grand? 🙂

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Storms and steam

Good Monday, everybody. We are tracking an increase in storms and the potential for a significant weekend cold front.

Let’s start this party with a look at where we stand on the rainfall front. The latest soil moisture map shows our region in pretty good shape…

The northern part of the state is a little closer to normal for soil moisture with the rest of the state showing up in a lot of green. Why is that? Look at the rainfall anomalies on the year…

Some areas of the state are pushing 20″ above normal since January 1st. This seems to be a yearly thing now across Kentucky. That said, if we don’t get 10″ of rain each week, the pathetic Drought Monitor will show us becoming the next Dust Bowl. 🙂

As far as the current weather goes, temps are back into the upper 80s and low 90s as a few storms go up. This isn’t terribly widespread, but any storm that’s out there can put down a lot of water in a short amount of time.A few of the storms may even be strong or severe. Here are your trackers…

The threat for scattered showers and storms will continue with us for the rest of the week. Any storm that goes up can be strong and put down enough rain to cause local high water issues. Again, it’s cloudburst season around here.

We continue to watch the southeast coast for the possibility of a tropical system…

This may hug the coast as it strengthens in the coming days. At the same time, a couple of systems dive in behind this, bringing showers and storms into our weekend…

EURO

CANADIAN

This is a very nice trough digging in behind this for the weekend and early next week…

Have a happy Monday and take care.

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A few storms join the steam

Good Sunday to one and all. As we wrap up the long 4th of July weekend, we begin to turn our weather focus toward a few thunderstorms. This action will be increasing as we head into the first full week of July.

As always, let’s begin with the precious present before looking ahead. Highs today are back into the upper 80s to around 90, but you will notice a little more humidity into the mix. This will lead to a better chance for a few storms going up across central and eastern Kentucky.

Here are your day after the 4th storm trackers:

Here’s the breakdown for the week ahead:

  • It’s a typical summertime setup across the region with highs ranging from the middle 80s to low 90s.
  • Humidity levels will be fairly high, making it feel steamy.
  • A daily threat for showers and storms will be noted, but this won’t be terribly widespread. Much of the storm action develops during the afternoon and dries up overnight.
  • Given the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, any storm can dump very heavy rains on a local scale.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Steam and a few storms settle in

Good Saturday and Happy 4th of July! Our Independence Day is featuring typical July temps and the smallest risk for a shower or storm. As we head into Sunday and beyond, there’s a much better shot at a few storms going up.

Highs today are in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of our region. A little more humidity will be in the air, I can’t rule out a stray shower or storm going up. Most areas look to remain dry, but here are your radars to help ya out:

The threat for scattered storms will increase Sunday and then increase even more by early next week. This action is more prominent during the afternoon and evening hours. This action may continue into much of next week. The GFS continues to be the most enthusiastic:

The Canadian isn’t too far behind:

Even the EURO is getting on board:

It’s cloudburst season in Kentucky, so we will have to watch any thunderstorm that blows up. With the increase in thunderstorm action, temps will likely come down from where we are this weekend.

Have a happy and safe 4th and take care.

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Typical 4th of July Forecast

Good Friday, folks. As crazy as it sounds, we’ve made it to the 4th of July holiday weekend. As expected, our temps are running on the seasonally toasty side of the thermometer, but there’s an increasing shot of some storms cutting into the numbers. That’s especially true late in the weekend through next week.

Highs out there today will be range from the middle 80s to lower 90s, depending on where you live. We will keep those numbers going through the holiday weekend.

However, the setup continues to find the hottest temps going up and around us as much lower heights show up from our region into the deep south…

That’s essentially another upper level low spinning and that will try to throw a storm or two at us on the 4th, with better chances showing up from the 5th through 7th…

There’s the chance we keep a few storms going the rest of next week and into next weekend…

The Canadian is sniffing out the same thing…

The Euro isn’t quite as bullish on the storm chances, but you know my thoughts on the Euro this year. It’s really struggling with not being able to see two things… Rain and cooler temps. If the Euro had been accurate, we would have had numerous days in the 90s back in June. Memo to the local weather world… Stop using the Euro until it matches other models and sheds it’s current biases. 🙂

Have a Happy 3rd of July and take care.

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