The action picks up in the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We are putting the wraps on a chilly, but pleasant weekend of weather across our part of the world. As we roll into the week ahead, our calm weather becomes much more active. That’s an active pattern that looks to roll through the rest of the month.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Clouds will increase as temps make a run at 50 or a little better. Winds will also gust up ahead of a couple of systems set to dive in here from the northwest over the next couple of days.

This will lead to some light precipitation across the region and that could be a touch of rain and snow shower action.

Canadian

European

Those are trying to look clipperish and we will need to watch to see if one of them is a little stronger than advertised.

The models continue to change with each run on how they’re handling the end of next week into the following weekend. We’ve talked about this for days now because this is a very energetic pattern with blocking setting up. That’s a combo to give the models fits.

We do know one system moves in by Thursday and Friday, likely with rain ending with the chance for some Friday flakes. Another system will try to follow that up next weekend. Here’s how the last run of the Euro handles this setup:

The details will change from run to run, but we will soon be getting into the ‘watching trends’ time frame.

I mentioned the blocking setting up and it’s looking fairly stout as we get deeper into the second half of November. The Euro is showing this to begin Thanksgiving week:

Notice that big positive up the west coast… That argues for a very deep trough in the east and you can see how that’s just showing up at the end of that run. Throw in some energy coming from the southwest and things could get fun.

The European Ensembles have a blocky look through the start of December:

Winter cometh early this year, but we’ve already seen that firsthand!

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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A more active pattern next week

Good Saturday, folks. Our weekend is off and running with a good looking sky,  but with chilly temps staying with us. This below normal pattern isn’t as cold as what we’ve been seeing, but there’s some indication that pattern may return Thanksgiving week.

Highs today are in the 40-45 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. The chill eases a bit on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to near 50. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of our next system.

The system coming in here early next week continues to look fairly weak, but can produce a rain or snow shower. This is just getting into the range of the NAM and it shows what I’m talking about Monday into Monday evening:

Again, this system doesn’t look like a big deal, but could be a precursor to a bigger event by the end of next week:

I mentioned how Thanksgiving week is looking colder and colder. The GFS Ensembles show one heck of a deep trough through the end of the month:

The temp anomalies have a crazy cold look considering how much smoothing goes into the maps from this far out:

Have a happy Saturday and take care.

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A chilly and pleasant weekend ahead

Good Friday to one and all. Our weekend is kicking off on a calm and chilly note and that looks to continue into the coming weekend. Once into next week, the pattern starts to turn busy with several systems targeting our part of the world.

Temperatures today are in the 20s to start and upper 30s to low 40s to end. A mix of sun and clouds will be possible. The forecast for Saturday looks pretty much the same.

Clouds will increase as winds gust up on Sunday. Temps will be closer to the 50 degree mark for much of central and eastern Kentucky.

The setup for early next week remains the same as a storm moves up the east coast with a few weaker systems diving in here from the northwest. Those may be able to spit out a touch of rain and snow in our neck of the woods. Here’s the European Model:

What comes after this has the potential to become a bigger storm system by late next week into the following weekend. The Euro is showing one system working through, bringing some colder air behind it and then has a slow moving cutoff with winter weather:

It’s interesting to note how the GFS is very similar to that:

The models will continue to flip around a lot in the coming days because there is just so much energy to throw the models for a loop.

As we start to look toward Thanksgiving week, the Ensembles keep us colder than normal:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Calming it down for a few days

Good Thursday, everyone. We are coming off a history making blast of winter weather here in the bluegrass state. As we get ready to close out the week and head into the weekend, things look calm and rather cold.

Lexington set a new record low yesterday with 12 degrees. Many areas dropped deep into the single digits, with Henderson checking in with a whopping 2 degrees.

Check out the lows from the Kentucky Mesonet:

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Highs will return to the 40s for many, but we are likely to see the north struggle to get much past 40.

Temps do come back down some for Friday and Saturday. Lows are deep into the 20s with highs ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s across the state. Those numbers are still colder than we should be for the middle of November.

Looking down the road into next week, changes start to show up.

As I’ve mentioned several times lately, there’s so much energy in the pattern that the computer models are going to struggle mightily. This time of year with the seasonal change is hard enough, but the shear amount of energy and storm systems doesn’t bode well for them.

Still, let’s give a little check on what they’re saying.

The European has our east coast system this weekend into early next week. It also shows the weak little system diving in here by Monday and Tuesday, possibly producing a rain or snow shower:

There’s another system working in quickly behind that later next week. The European Model brings that through here by Thursday and Friday:

The Canadian Model has a much bigger system:

I like the bigger system idea as this is a pattern that can really amplify and produce a big storm system or storm systems over the next few weeks.

The European Ensembles then show another deep trough in the east as we head into Thanksgiving week:

Have a great day and take care.

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Historic temps start the day

Good Wednesday, folks. Our history-making blast of winter weather continues out there today. Temps this morning are likely the coldest temps ever recorded this early in the season for Lexington and the entire state.

Temps to start the day are in the single digits and low teens, breaking all kinds of records for the date. Wow!

After the current arctic cold pushes east, temps moderate but are still skewing colder than normal for the rest of the week.

The overall pattern looks very blocky with systems cutting off across the eastern part of the country this weekend into early next week. Can we get some kind of merger to take place? That’s something we need to be on guard for. Check out the Canadian upper levels to see what I’m talking about:

That would form one heck of a storm along the east coast with the potential for another system to pop in our region by early next week:

The Canadian brings a little rain and snow to the area by Monday and Tuesday. The ICON has a similar evolution:

The Canadian then digs another deep system into the east later next week:

With so many systems on the map, look for some fairly wide model swings in the coming days.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Bitter cold and snow showers today

Good Tuesday, everyone. Record snow fell in many areas Monday and now we turn our attention to more snows and bitter cold. This cold may set a few record lows by the time we roll into Wednesday morning.

Here are some new thoughts as Old Man Winter continues to rock our fall world:

  • Our system snows wind down across southeastern Kentucky early this morning.
  • Temps to start out the day will range from the middle teens to low 20s but wind chills will be in the single digits at times.
  • Slick travel is a good bet for many areas.
  • Highs this afternoon stay in the 20s with a wind chill in the teens. That’s super hard to do this early in the season.
  • Don’t sleep on the northwest arctic flow coming down the length of Lake Michigan and into central and eastern Kentucky. A few snow showers and snow squalls will likely develop. Those could drop some hit and run accumulations and lower visibility at times. This might be enough to keep the Winter Weather Advisory rolling through the afternoon, at least in my eyes.
  • Clearing skies tonight will allow temps to head close to record territory by Wednesday morning. Readings from 10 to 15 will be possible, but the colder valleys may reach the high single digits. Wind chills will be colder than the actual temps.

Here are your Tuesday tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

Have

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter weather moves in tonight

Good Monday, everyone. A blast of early season winter weather is on the way to the bluegrass state. This will bring the first light snowfall of the season tonight and Tuesday and will also bring us a taste of arctic cold temps.

Let’s start you out with a breakdown of how this looks to play out:

  • The late arriving front means temps are mild for the daylight hours today. Once the front blows in, temps drop some 20-30 degrees in a few hours.
  • Highs today may reach the low 60s and then be roughly 40 degrees colder by Tuesday morning with upper teens and low 20s.
  • Rain develops along and ahead of the front, then quickly transitions to snow behind it. That’s where the bulk of the precipitation will be.
  • A decent band of light to moderate snow will be noted as it works from northwest to southeast across the state.
  • As our wave of low pressure develops, there is likely to be an enhancement of the snow across southeastern Kentucky late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
  • The northwest wind coming down the length of Lake Michigan is aimed at central and eastern Kentucky into Tuesday, keeping flurries and snow showers going.
  • Snowfall accumulation is likely across the entire region. Coatings to 2″ look good, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. We will have to watch southeastern Kentucky for the possibility of locally higher amounts showing up.
  • Given the rapid temp drop, slick spots will likely develop on area roads Monday night and Tuesday. This may bring a few delays or cancellations.
  • Temps are frigid and wind chills will be crazy for this early in the year. Record lows will be possible Wednesday.

This is what I’m expecting in terms of a light snowfall:

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

Have a happy Monday and take care.

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Winter weather on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a blast of winter weather blowing in here late Monday through the middle of the week. This will be complete with early season arctic air and the increasing threat for the first snowfall of the very young winter season.

Here’s a breakdown of what I’m expecting:

  • The slower arrival of the arctic front means milder temps during the daylight hours of Monday. Readings can reach the low 60s.
  • That just sets us up for a bigger drop with temps dropping like a rock as the front moves through. You may have a nearly 30 degree drop in just an hour or two.
  • Rain will develop in the afternoon and evening, but much of the precipitation is behind the front in the form or snow.
  • A nice shield of light to moderate snow is likely to develop and work across the state Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
  • A cold flow coming down the length of a relatively warm Lake Michigan will bring snow showers and flurries into our region on Tuesday.
  • Snow accumulations are a good bet, though I’m not ready to commit to specific totals and locations just yet. At this point, the entire state and surrounding areas would pretty much be in the coating-2″ range.
  • A First Call For Snowfall will come your way at some point today. 🙂
  • With such a rapid temperature drop, a flash freeze will be possible. This could cause some slick spots to develop Monday night and Tuesday.
  • The arctic cold air is very impressive! Temps stay in the 20s on Tuesday afternoon and that’s crazy hard to do this time of year. Lows on Tuesday morning can reach the teens in many areas. Record lows of 10-15 will be possible Wednesday morning.
  • Wind chills will drop into the single digits at times early Tuesday and early Wednesday.

The latest round of models continue to back up everything you just read:

GFS

Here’s the snow map from that run of the GFS:

European

Euro snow map:

Canadian

Canadian snow map:

Have a great day and take care.

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Arctic air and some snow on the way

Good Saturday, folks. It’s a fairly calm weekend, but all that changes as we roll into Monday. That’s when a blast of arctic air invades much of the country, including here in Kentucky. This could threaten a few records and even bring some snow into our part of the world.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the 40s after another frigid start in the 20s. Skies will be mainly clear and that continues into the evening for Wildcats fans out at Kroger Field. Dress warm because temps are in the 30s during the game.

Sunday is a better feeling day with readings deep into the 50s. Winds will be gusty as some clouds increase during the afternoon and evening.

here are my updated thoughts on the setup ahead:

  • The arctic front arrives from northwest to southeast on Monday and is likely to have a wave of low pressure along it.
  • Temps ahead of this boundary may touch 60 in the east and southeast early on, with a major crash taking place as the day wears on.
  • Rain develops ahead of the boundary on Monday, but much of the precipitation appears to be behind the front in the cold air.
  • This leads to a band of snow behind our front from Monday afternoon through Monday night.
  • As the system snows work away early Tuesday, a northwest flow should pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan and bring flurries and some snow showers on Tuesday across the central and east.
  • Can we get some accumulations from this? It’s looking more and more like the answer is yes. That will be especially true Monday evening and Monday night.
  • With a rapid temp drop to well below freezing, a decent freeze up will be possible.
  • Temps will be brutal for this time of year Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps on Tuesday may stay mid and upper 20s for highs with wind chills dipping into the single digits. Lows by Wednesday morning may be historic for so early in the season.

As we get closer to this winter blast, the models are in line with the general line of thinking.

Here’s the GFS:

Here’s the current GFS snow map:

The European Model is just a little slower with the evolution of the system, but it has the same idea:

The Euro snow map:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Winter weather possible early next week

Good Friday and welcome to the start of your weekend. It’s a cold end to the week and beginning of the weekend, but the focus continues to be on the setup for early next week. Arctic air and the chance for snow  look to be with us.

Let’s kick things off with the weather we have going on out there today. We are starting things out with temps in the low and middle 20s with a wind chill in the teens. Brr! By the afternoon, a mix of sun and clouds will be noted as highs struggle to get out of the 30s.

If you’re heading out to high school football action, temps will fall quickly into the 20s.

The weekend sees a little better weather, but it’s still very chilly. Saturday starts in the 20s and ends with readings in the 40s for highs. Kroger Field will be hopping as the Cats host that team in orange from just to our south. Temps will generally be in the 30s during the game with a clean sky.

Highs by Sunday warm deep into the 50s as winds gust up and afternoon clouds increase. Here are some thoughts on early next week…

  • The arctic front drops in from the northwest on Monday, but the exact timing for any one location is yet to be determined.
  • A band of rain may focus along and ahead of the front and before the temp crash.
  • Much of the precipitation with a front like this is usually focused behind it and into the cold air. That’s where a band of light snow can set up.
  • A wave of low pressure is going to try to develop along this front. If that happens near us, it can enhance the band of snow behind the front.
  • As this system pulls away Tuesday, a STRONG northwest wind could produce snow showers and flurries for many. Lake Michigan may be wide open for business and we may get in on some of that action.
  • Can we get an early season light snowfall? That’s certainly a possibility, especially across central and eastern Kentucky. No promises as of now! 😉
  • There are no current indications of this being anything other than a light winter weather maker at best.
  • Temps will be crazy cold for this time of year. Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday may not get above freezing and lows can reach deep into the teens. Wind chills could even reach single digits in the morning hours.

A quick check of the models find the GFS and Euro with a similar look:

GFS

EURO

Have a happy Friday and take care.

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