Here comes a cold front

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a wet and windy day across the region as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This is ushering in colder air and we are on guard for a brush from winter weather across the south by Thursday.

Let’s begin with today and move forward. Showers will be with us, but it’s not going to rain all day. Here are your radars to follow along:

Winds will continue to be gusty with temps in the 50s for highs.

That sets the stage for a seasonal brand of chill on Wednesday as skies go mostly sunny.

The European Model now brushes far southeastern Kentucky with a little bit of a mix of some light snow by Thursday:

The NAM goes the same route:

The GFS is a bit north as well:

The ICON is most aggressive:

As we head into the weekend, we find our next system rolling our way by Sunday. Nice weather will be noted ahead of this, but things change quickly as a bowling ball of a low pressure works in. The Euro has rain and snow with this and follows it up with another system a few days later:

You can see the cold coming in at the end of that run and this is something the  Ensembles continue to point to as we end the month and begin March:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Tracking a cold front into Kentucky

Good Monday, folks. It’s a nice and mild day across the Commonwealth, but wet weather is on the way for Tuesday. That’s when a cold front drops in here from the northwest with gusty showers and colder air coming in behind it. That cold air is likely to force the next system to our south later in the week.

Clouds will thicken this afternoon with temps warming into the 60-65 degree range for many. Soak. It Up.

A few showers will be noted to our west and north and some of these may work into areas of Kentucky before the evening is over. Here is your regional radar to follow along:

Tuesday is a windy day as our front slams in from the northwest with showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. Colder air comes in behind this for Wednesday, pushing our boundary far enough south to likely keep that next system far enough away to have little impact on our weather:

Seasonally chilly air controls the second half of the week with temps climbing this weekend. That’s when we wait and see what a couple of bowling ball looking systems bring our way.

The Ensembles continue to point toward mild going to cold to end the month and kick off March:

GFS

EUROMake

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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A little change to the weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend is off and running with temps slowly climbing out of the deep freeze, but I do have a little change for Sunday. A shower or two now looks to develop ahead of a bigger system coming in here early next week.

Let’s begin with today and move forward. Temps are in the teens this morning before warming into the mid and upper 40s this afternoon. A few clouds will be on the increase.

Sunday is milder, but a sneaky system brings a few late day showers into play, especially in the north and east:

Temps continue to climb Monday and Tuesday, but with a wet price. Showers and a few storms move in ahead of a potent cold front. There’s a lot of cold air coming in behind this and we will need to watch for a second system pushing through a few days later. That one could be a winter weather maker.

Here’s the GFS with the setup:

The European Model has a colder push of air and keeps any possible system well to our south:

Regardless, this is a very cold setup coming in behind that, but it’s not going to stick around very long. Odds favor some wild swings through the rest of the month. Check out the Euro Ensembles temperature deviations from normal:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Arctic cold starts the weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Our Valentine’s Day is one of the coldest days of the entire winter as arctic air has taken control of the weather. This won’t carry us through the entire weekend, but it’s another reminder that we are indeed still in winter.

Temps this morning will be in the teens with wind chills in the single digits. A few flurries or light snow showers may even show up to start the day:

Afternoon skies become partly sunny with highs in the upper 20s and low 30s. That sets the stage for another frigid night with temps back into the teens.

Saturday starts absolutely frigid, but ends on a nice note with temps in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Sunday looks even milder with temps reaching the 50s across the entire area.

Our next system moves our way by Tuesday and will have a surge of milder air ahead of it. 60s are possible:

A cold front then moves in by Tuesday night and will bring widespread showers and a few storms. Winds look very gusty as cold air crashes in behind it.

Can this setup produce some winter weather around here? It’s one that actually bears watching as the front could check up and allow for winter weather makers to roll along it. That’s something the European is hinting at, but has the action to our south and southeast:

That’s something to follow in the coming days.

Have a great Valentine’s Day and take care.

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Cold air pushes the rain away

Good Thursday, everyone. Flooding rains are pushing away from the region early today, but high water issues look to remain. Much colder air is settling in for a few days as a drying trend sets in for the weekend.

Many areas are under Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Warnings to begin the day. Here’s a look:

Here are your tracking tools to get you through the high water issues:

Colder winds are blowing across the region today with an arctic front arriving by late this afternoon. That may have a rain or snow shower alone it, with the cold air surging in behind it. Temps by Friday morning drop into the teens with a few wind chills in the single digits. Highs on Friday range from the upper 20s to the middle 30s, depending on where you are.

After another morning in the teens, Saturday turns much better with a mostly sunny sky showing up. Temps hit 50 in the west and into the 40s for the rest of the state.

Sunday looks like a great day with highs in the 50s and a mostly dry sky.

Our next chance for rain arrives with a front Monday into Tuesday.

Have a great day and take care.

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Flash Flood Watch continues

Good Wednesday, folks. Another big rain event is unfolding across the region today as rounds of heavy rain and storms roll in. These storms may also be on the strong side by this evening.

The setup is there for a general 1″-3″ of additional rain to fall by Thursday morning. This will cause flooding and flash flooding to develop across parts of the state. Here’s your Flash Flood Watch…

This continues to be part of an amazingly wet stretch of weather that has been with us for the past several years. 2020 doesn’t look to change that trend. Look at the rain numbers since January 1:

The potential continues to be there for some strong or severe storms, especially across southeastern parts of the state. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center:

Cold air crashes in behind all this on Thursday, with an arctic front arriving with a band of snow showers and squalls late in the day. The air behind this is FRIGID for Friday. Look at Friday Morning temps:

And Wind Chills:

Here are all the tracking toys you need for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

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Tracking the flood threat

Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to track the potential for early day flooding across southeastern Kentucky. Once into Wednesday, we have a much bigger system on tap with more heavy rain and the potential for strong storms.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Rain is with us to start the day and it’s going to be heavy at times. This can lead to local high water issues, especially across southeastern Kentucky. Temps will be much colder today and this may even bring a mix to far northern Kentucky this morning.

Skies try to dry this afternoon and evening with cloudy skies and a seasonal chill in the air.

Our next system then rolls in here on Wednesday and looks to bring some pretty active weather in here. Heavy rain starts the day as a warm front lifts northward across the state. Winds will be gusty as temps then spike to near 60 by evening in central and eastern Kentucky.

As the low passes by, it drags a cold front across the state and this front will have a potent line of showers and thunderstorms with it. Watch how all this plays out on the Hi Res NAM:

That setup can lead to another 1″-3″ of rain across much of the state. While the greatest flood threat will be across the recently devastated areas, this setup brings a flood risk to much of the state.

It will also bring the potential for strong to severe storms. The greatest severe threat is across central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s the latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Much colder air then crashes in for Thursday with some snow showers and flurries around into early Friday.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Flood threat returns

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain continue to roll across the region and this is a sign of things to come. Additional heavy rain and strong storms will be noted through the middle of the week as a potent system moves in. All of this leads to an increased flooding risk.

A Flood Watch is out for only a few counties in the far southeastern part of the state..

I get that those were the counties hardest hit, but come on guys. Expand that thing to include much more of this region. Geez.

This may need to be expanded much farther north for Tuesday and Wednesday as the next wave of heavy rain moves across much of the region. That’s especially true since some areas have already picked up well more than 1″ of rain through noon today…

The next round of heavier rain arrives tonight and early Tuesday before a bit of a break in the action. That window closes quickly with heavy rain and strong storms arriving Wednesday. Colder winds blow for Thursday with some flakes flying…

The Flood Threat map remains the same during this time…

The severe risk for Wednesday afternoon and evening is there, especially across parts of southern Kentucky. Here’s the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

The setup from this weekend through next week continues the active pattern with more rounds of heavy rain…

I leave you with your tracking toys…

Enjoy the day and take care.

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A little light snow

Good Saturday to one and all. Light snow is working across the region today, but this doesn’t look anything like what we have been seeing of late. Still, some minor accumulations will be noted.

As the next system moves in, a Winter Weather Advisory is now out for areas of northern Kentucky into the Louisville metro…

That seems a little specific given the nature of this system, but may need to be expanded a bit farther east. Up to an inch or so of snow is possible for some, especially along and north of Interstate 64…

Hi Res NAM…

GFS

This has a potent little spin with it, so I’m wondering if there will be a little more of a line of snow working in. If that’s the case, then a quick hitting squall line looking setup takes place.

Sunday will clear out early on, but the next front drops in by Sunday night and Monday. With milder air ahead of this, rain is likely during this time.

That front does allow colder air to take control for next week, but this isn’t anything REALLY cold. It’s more seasonal than anything, but it could set the stage for a southern storm system with additional winter weather later in the week…

I leave you with your tracking toys for the evening…

Lexington


Georgetown

Frankfort

Morehead

Winchester

Maysville

Mt. Vernon

London

Corbin

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pikeville

Have a great day and take care.

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Snow blows across Kentucky

Good Friday, everyone. It took a little while, but Old Man Winter has finally arrived in the bluegrass state. Today’s snow marks our first real measureable snow in Lexington since early November. Wow!

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for most of the region to start the day…

Here’s a quick update before we get your tracking toys:

  • A healthy swath of snow will be with us this morning across much of central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Snowfall totals are lighter in the west and heavier in the east. Areas of central and eastern parts of the state fall within the 1″ and 4″ range.
  • There’s the potential for a few areas to overachieve.
  • By afternoon, light snows taper to snow showers and flurries.
  • Travel will be rather messy this morning with some black ice under any snow that falls.
  • Another light snow maker will roll in here early Saturday and should be able to drop some additional light accumulations.

I will have updates later today so check back. Until then, I have you all set to do some Friday snow tracking…

Paducah

Fort Campbell

Bowling Green

E-town

Louisville

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No image available.

Lexington


Covington area

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_75_1908.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0045.jpg

Florence

No image available.

Georgetown

Frankfort

Morehead

Winchester

Maysville

Mt. Vernon

Corbin

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Have a happy Friday and take care.

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