A slow thaw ahead

Good Thursday to one and all. Temps continue to run well below normal, but that’s about to change in the coming days. A slow thaw is on the way into the coming weekend, and that likely kicks off a milder overall pattern.

Our day starts with the single digits and ends with highs in the mid and upper 20s. Sunny skies will combine with the snow cover to produce a very bright day.

Highs on Friday go above freezing with 35-40 in most areas. Watch for re-freezing during the overnight hours as temps drop back below freezing.

We start to moderate those temps over the few days, with some milder days actually settling in for Saturday and Sunday. That’ ahead of a strong cold front, producing gusty winds and a wall of rain crossing the state late Sunday and Monday:

There could be a touch of snow behind that as temps take a bit of a dip. Seasonally cold air does sweep in behind that system through next week, but the pattern is going to skew milder over the final few weeks of the month. Watch these big shots of milder temps try to fight off colder shots diving in from the north:

Obviously, that’s a VERY active setup, with storm systems crossing the country:

Is this the famed “January Thaw” setting up? That seems like a realistic possibility, but if it’s just a “thaw”, it means more winter will follow that. My winter forecast of a milder February isn’t too happy with the long term prospects I’m seeing. That said, it’s loving the front loaded winter we have had to this point. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

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From bitter cold to a slow thaw

Good Wednesday to one and all. We are dealing with another bitterly cold day across Kentucky, but we will slowly climb out of the deep freeze later this week and the weekend.

Morning temps are within a few degrees of zero in many areas, making this a brutally cold start to the day. Afternoon highs reach the teens, with the potential for a few snow showers and flurries:

Temps slowly rebound later in the week. with an outside chance at a high of 60 by Sunday. That’s ahead of a potent cold front, bringing rain our way:

Seasonally cold air comes in behind that early next week, with another system trying to swing in behind it:

The pattern should be trending milder over the next few weeks, but the European model doesn’t really want a lot of that. It has an interesting look late next week:

 

When a winter gets going like this one, it can be hard to completely flip a switch to turn it off, even if the global signals are there.

Have a great day and take care.

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Winter storm warning

Good Tuesday, everyone. A winter storm warning is out for much of Central Kentucky through the afternoon, with a winter weather advisory out for eastern parts of the state.

 

We might see Eastern Kentucky upgraded to a warning soon, as similar snows sweep through. This slow-moving band of snow is producing 4 inches or more of snow in some areas, with the bitterly cold air really enhancing the ratios. A few pockets of 6-inch snowfall will show up with such a slow-mover.

The bitter cold also is a huge player. Many areas will struggle to get to 10 degrees in the afternoon, with temps well below zero possible tonight. Wind chills are even colder and in the danger category.

Wednesday will find a few snow showers and flurries on the move, with highs in the teens.

Here are your tracking tools for Tuesday’s snow in the central and east:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Have a good one and take care.

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Tracking snow and bitter cold

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our arctic front continues to slowly press across the region, bringing a band of snow and bitter cold. This snow band means business, creating snow-covered roads for many

Here’s a breakdown:

  • Light snow continues to press across Central and Eastern Kentucky, reaching far southeastern Kentucky Tuesday morning.
  • Bands of moderate snow are setting up within the overall band, putting down streaks of heavier totals.
  • Most areas finish with 1 to 4 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. The higher amounts might show up in a streak from the Lexington area, southwest toward Bowling Green. Another could show up in the far southeast.
  • Bitterly cold air moves, in with temps staying at 10 to 15 degrees for much of the day. Lows by Wednesday morning will reach zero or below in some areas. Wind chills will be below zero.
  • The cold slowly lets go later in the week, with milder weather for the weekend. Rain also moves in by Sunday.

I have you all set to do some arctic snow tracking on this Tuesday:

Let’s get you back to the tracking toys…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62

Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

Make it a good one and take care.

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Winter weather advisory

Good Monday, everyone. We have rounds of snow moving across the region on this MLK holiday. The snows will cause slick travel, as another round of bitterly cold air presses in behind an arctic front.

A Winter weather advisory is out for much of the region.

The first surge of light snow moves in this morning across the western, central and northern parts of the state.

Once that passes through, the arctic front dives in from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening. That will have a nice band of snow along and behind it. Much of the state picks up a general 1″-3″ through Tuesday morning. That front will slow down across the southeast, potentially leading to some enhanced snows that can exceed 3″.

Travel conditions go downhill quickly, especially with the band of snow behind the front.

Temps tank on Tuesday with readings in the low and middle teens, and wind chills around zero or below. The models underplayed the cold on the snowpack this morning, and will likely do it again in the coming days. Still, they are already seeing zero or below numbers:

Wind chill numbers will be way below zero at times from Tuesday through Wednesday.

The bitter cold eases later in the week, with a big mild surge on the way for the weekend. That’s when temps can make another run at the 60s:

That’s ahead of another cold front moving through here in about a week from now:

That can give us showers and storms, with flip to flakes in just a few hours time.

Let’s get back to today’s snows. I have you all set to do some tracking:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Have a great day and take care.

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Arctic front on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. Frigid temps have settled back into the bluegrass state, with another surge of bitterly cold air on the way. This air comes behind an arctic front slamming in here Monday night and Tuesday.

Our day is starting out in the single digits with afternoon highs reaching the low 20s for most areas. We will have a mix of sun and clouds, with those clouds increasing in the afternoon and evening.

There’s a slight chance early on Monday, but the main snow threat arrives by Monday night and carries us into Tuesday.

The arctic front moves in with a very small wave of low pressure along it:

Those snows typically fall just behind the front and are generally widespread 1″-3″ amounts, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Winds of 30mph will accompany the front, blowing the arctic flakes around.

Bitterly cold air comes in behind this, potentially sending lows to around zero or below:

Wind chills will be solidly below zero for a few days:

For those of you who follow me, you know it’s not too far away from the time of the year when I become a full blown spring fan. I start looking for warm ups and there is another coming by next weekend, but it doesn’t last too long:

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Winter storm moves away

Good Saturday, everyone. Our winter storm is pulling on out of town, leaving behind snow and ice covered roads to start the weekend. Frigid temps are following in behind this system, with bitterly cold air on the way in the week ahead.

The transition from rain to snow took a little longer than anticipated, cutting down on snow totals in some areas. Still, several inches of snow fell on top of ice, giving us one ugly travel setup. Gusty winds also continue to blow the snows around early today.

Here are your travel trackers:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Leftover flurries continue today as highs only reach the low 20s. Single digit lows show up by Sunday morning with temps back in the low 20s for highs.

An arctic front moves in late on our MLK holiday, bringing accumulating snows back to the region:

Bitterly cold temps come in behind that, with the potential for thermometers to head to zero or below in some areas:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking the winter storm

Good Friday to one and all. After back-to-back record highs, a winter storm is moving across Kentucky, bringing significant amounts of snow and ice. This will lead to some nasty travel conditions as the day wears on.

Here’s a breakdown of how this might play out:

  • The temperature drop Friday is nothing short of astounding. As the front moves through, temps can drop 20 to 30 degrees in an hour or so.
  • Winds are going to be a big player through Friday night, with gusts reaching 30 mph or greater.
  • The transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will work east, reaching Eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Here’s hoping for more sleet than freezing rain.
  • The transition to snow takes place early Friday in the west, reaching Central Kentucky in the afternoon, then Eastern Kentucky during the evening hours.
  • We are likely to see an area of enhanced snow setting up across the region from late afternoon into the evening. Areas under that may pick up snow at a rate of 1 to 2 inches an hour or so.
  • Snowfall totals will depend on how quickly the transition from freezing rain and sleet to snow is where you live. The quicker the transition, the more snow. The slower, the less snow.

Here’s my current call:

Much of that won’t fall until the evening hours, so be patient. Also, understand that the weather doesn’t follow lines or abide by what I think it should do. The lines and totals are a general estimate. 😉

I made that map Thursday afternoon, and it looks as if the new European model had the same idea:

Here’s the ice forecast from the Euro:

As always, I have the blog set up to be your one-stop shop for tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

Winchester

Georgetown

Stay safe out there and make it a great Friday. Take care.

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Winter storm moves in Friday

Good Thursday, everyone. While we are flirting with record highs out there today, a winter storm is brewing and it is rolling our way in less than 24 hours. This setup goes from mild to wild in a hurry late Thursday night and Friday morning.

Here’s a quick breakdown:

  • Highs Thursday reach the middle 60s, potentially setting another record high in Lexington. 66 is the number to shoot for.
  • Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder will be possible.
  • Friday morning gets the winter party started. Cold air surges in from the west, with a 20- to 30-degree temperature drop in less than an hour.
  • Rain quickly changes to sleet, freezing rain then snow from west to east.
  • Significant amounts of snow and ice are possible from midday Friday through Saturday morning.

Here’s my current call for ice and snowfall:

Those numbers will be updated later Thursday, as I continue to get a better handle on how the storm looks to behave.

As far as models go, I like what the European model is doing. Watch the quick transition to ice and snow starting early Friday, with snow going through Saturday morning:

The freezing rain forecast from that model is impressive, especially across the west:

Here’s the snow forecast that comes on top of the freezing rain:

The NAM is similar to that, but isn’t as enthusiastic with the snow band in central Kentucky, The model is still spitting some hefty amounts:

The high-res NAM goes only through 7 a.m. Saturday, but you can see it picking up on the heavy snow band,  but just a bit west of the European model and the map from above:

That run of the NAM is trending eastward with that main snow setup.

Frigid temps come in behind this system over the weekend, with another snow maker quickly moving in Monday and Tuesday:

That has the potential to put down a few more inches of snow, with bitterly cold air settling in with it.

I will have another update later Thursday, so check back. Have a great day and take care.

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Update on the potential late-week storm

Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the potential for a late-week winter storm to hit our region. This system will roll in Friday, with crashing temps and the potential for rain to change to ice and then snow.

There are a ton of uncertainties with this storm, including the track of the low and precipitation amounts.

My current thinking is that western and parts of Central Kentucky have the greatest risk on seeing significant amounts of snow (4 inches or more) or ice:

That risk is lower the farther east and southeast that you live. Still, it’s a fluid situation that is likely to change over the next day or two.

Enjoy the sunshine of Wednesday and take care.

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