Temps start to climb

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another pretty nice weather day across the state, but the pattern is skewing warmer in the coming days. More typical August temps are on the way and this is likely to bring along an increased risk for showers and storms for the week ahead.

Let’s kick things off with what’s happening out there today. Highs are generally in the low and middle 80s with comfy humidity levels. Skies stay partly sunny.

The numbers climb a bit for Sunday as a touch more humidity enters the picture. That will lead to a stray shower or storm in the afternoon and evening.

Rounds of showers and storms look to target our region starting Monday and taking us through next week, at least.

You can see what I’m talking about on the EURO:

That could send some pretty good storms into the region. The same model run is showing some pretty good rain totals in here:

Have a great day and take care.

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Warmer for the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. It’s another very pleasant day across the region, but things are about to turn warmer as we head into the weekend. As temps return to normal through next week, rounds of showers and storms also look to increase.

Highs out there today are generally in the 80-85 degree range. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds with low humidity levels.

Temps return to the middle 80s across the central and east on Saturday with upper 80s in the west. Humidity still isn’t half bad as our skies look mainly dry.

Sunday is mid and upper 80s for many and that’s right at our seasonal norms for the most part. The chance for a shower or storm creeps into the picture by the afternoon and evening.

The pattern for next week will feature a big heat ridge building across the northern part of the country. A system will move in from the northwest and put a dent in this ridge and that brings an increase in showers and storms. That same system looks to hang around our region or into the south for the rest of next week and into the weekend.

Essentially, we are going into a pattern that finds Kentucky between a heat ridge in the north and more of a trough in the south:

This means rounds of storms appear likely:

The GFS Ensembles continue to point toward a wetter than normal overall pattern for the next two weeks:

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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A few more days of nice temps

Good Thursday, everyone. We have been dealing with a September feeling pattern for several days now and we have a few more left in the tank. Once into the weekend, more typical summertime temps roll back into central and eastern Kentucky.

Let’s start with what’s shaking out there today. Highs are back into the upper 70s to low 80s with fairly low humidity. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted and there’s a chance for a scattered shower or storm going up. The best chance is across the east and southeast, but some of that action may inch into central parts of the state.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

The numbers continue into the normal category next week as the threat for showers and storms begins to increase. That said, there’s a growing signal for a bit of a cutoff system trying to hang around here for the middle and end of next week:

This whole scenario would lead to an increase in showers and storms:

CANADIAN

EURO

The GFS Ensembles have been hinting at this for the past several days and continue to show a ridge going by well to our north with a trough through the south:

That same model does keep temps in good shape around here as we roll into the second half of the month:

Make it a good day and take care.

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September preview rolls on

Good Wednesday to one and all.

We continue to see much below normal temps for our part of the world as August keeps it’s cool. This September weather pattern has a few more days left in the tank before we get into a more typical August setup.

Let’s begin with the precious present and roll forward. Temps to start the day are into the amazing 50s! Highs are on the awesome side of the thermometer with many areas in staying in the 70s…

A few of the hot spots will hit 80, but there’s no humidity to worry about.

Temps on Thursday should reach the high 70s to low 80s for most of the region, but we should see a few more clouds showing up. A few showers and storms may also show up across the east and southeast with some isolated stuff continuing into Friday.

Locally heavy downpours will show up and you can see that in rainfall totals Thursday and Friday…

EURO

GFS

Temps will rebound into normal levels this weekend with just a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

The threat for showers and storms increase into next week as some action works in from the northwest…

The pattern next week will feature temps around normal or even a little above. The core of the above normal air goes to our north, with more of a trough eventually developing across the southern part of the country…

That will likely open the tropics up for another burst of activity!

Have a good one and take care.

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Breaking down the first week of August

Good Sunday to one and all. We are finally breaking the pattern of repeat torrential rain producing storms, but that doesn’t mean we are finished with the threat for storms. As we head into the first full week of the month, a few storms show up as our temps run cooler than normal.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • A storm or two will be noted today as temps reach the upper 70s to low 80s.
  • Another system drops in later Monday with a bit of an increase in showers and storms. That would take us into Tuesday.
  • The overall pattern continues to show a dip in the jet stream across our part of the world through the week ahead.
  • That means high temps range from the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows mainly in the 60s. For perspective, normal highs right now are 85-90 degrees.
  • We may still see a stray shower or storm at any point in the week ahead.

Hurricane Isaias continues to work northward along the southeastern coast. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

That will not have a direct impact on the weather here in Kentucky.

I leave you with your Sunday weather tracking tools:

Have a great end of the weekend and take care.

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More storms to start August

Good Saturday, everyone. August is off and running with additional rounds of showers and storms rolling across the state. These storms may also produce more local high water issues and a few could be on the strong side.

Rounds of rain and storms show up today, but it’s not going to be raining all day by any means. Local high water issues will continue to be a concern through the evening. If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, keep that in mind.

With the low wrapping up across the region, a few strong or severe storms may develop ahead of it. The best threat is across central and eastern Kentucky. Here’s the current outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and a brief tornado spin up will be possible.

As the low pushes north into the Great Lakes, backlash cloud and a scattered shower or storm will show up behind it for Sunday. That’s something you don’t usually see this time of year. Temps will be held way down once again.

As all this is happening, Hurricane Isaias is threatening Florida today, but should turn north toward the Carolinas. That system may ride all the way up the east coast. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

That system won’t have a direct impact on us, but it helps keep a big dip in the jet stream behind it that lasts through most of next week. This keeps the first week of August cooler than normal with the potential for another system or two to drop in from the northwest.

The latest August forecast from the CFS shows a large part of the country averaging below normal:

Here are the tracking toys to jump start a brand new month:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Heavy rain and strong storms continue

Good Friday, everyone. We continue to track rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region, keeping the flood threat going into the weekend. Once into Saturday, some of the storms may also be strong or severe.

Today will feature showers and storms early on, but the action decreases a bit during the afternoon. This will increase during the evening and overnight as another low pressure develops and slowly rolls northward across western Kentucky overnight and into Saturday. That brings additional heavy rainfall into the area and also brings an increasing risk for strong to severe storms.

The current risk for severe storms is just to our southwest for today:

That threat focuses farther north to encompass much of Kentucky for Saturday:

The setup is there for damaging wind producing thunderstorms and there’s enough shear to get some of those storms spinning. That could produce a tornado or two, so that’s going to be something for us to keep a close eye on.

Scattered showers and storms will continue into Sunday as we get ready for another system to dive in from the northwest into early next week. As this is happening, Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane as it works toward Florida then up the east coast:

cone graphic

The weather behind that is cooler than normal around here for most of next week. A couple of systems may keep scattered showers and storms going.

I leave you with your final day of July tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Heavy rains arrive

Good Thursday to one and all. Rounds of showers and storms are kicking into high gear across the state today and this looks to continue for a while. Heavy rainfall is likely in many areas through the upcoming weekend.

Rain and storms will be showing up from west to east today and some of this stuff may be heavy at times. The best chance for showers and storms will be noted in the afternoon and evening.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Here’s a breakdown of where we go with this:

  • Rounds of showers and storms will be with us from today through Monday as several different systems swing through here.
  • This will bring a general 1″-4″ of rain across the state. Locally higher amounts can easily show up and those are the areas who would, obviously, have the best chance for flash flooding issues.
  • NO… It is not going to rain all the time on any given day. You will have several dry hours to get outside.
  • Temps will be held in check and be much cooler than normal, especially for afternoon highs. Still, this air is going to feel pretty tropical and that’s what will give us the chance for torrential rainfall at times.

All of this comes from a deep trough digging into the eastern half of the country:

The temp anomalies:

We will also continue to watch what happens with our tropical system that may impact the southeast coast this weekend and early next week. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Have a great day and take care.

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Rounds of storms ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a very wet pattern taking shape across Kentucky and surrounding areas over the next few days. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are ready to rumble across the region, bringing a high water threat and much cooler temps through early August.

Let’s begin with today’s weather and roll forward. We continue to see a scattering of showers and storms across the southern half of the state. A few may be strong and put down heavy rains. Farther north, things are better in terms of the sky with seasonal summer temps.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

We are tracking multiple systems in the coming days. The first arrives late tonight and goes through early Friday and may dump a general 1″-3″ of rain for many, with locally higher amounts.  Another system then follows that up later Friday into the start of the weekend.

I made this map several days ago and it looks to be in pretty good shape…

I will get more specific on that later today. Local flooding and flash flooding is certainly possible during this time.

You can see both of these systems and a third showing up by Monday…

Temps will be average much cooler than normal, especially afternoon highs under the clouds and rain.

Our tropical system heading into the Caribbean continues to churn away and should reach Florida over the weekend…

cone graphic

The ultimate path of this system will, obviously, have an impact on the weather across the eastern half of the country.

Some models take this across Florida and into the Gulf, then skirting by just to our east. That’s what the EURO shows…

The GFS takes brings this more toward our region and merges it with a slow-moving upper level low…

The Canadian is the most in tact with this system and zips it just to our east, with deep trough diving in behind it…

Regardless, this is a very busy setup as we roll into the first week or two of August. One that looks to feature widespread above normal precipitation. Here are the anomalies from the Ensembles…

EURO

GFS

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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A different pattern settles in

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a totally different weather pattern taking shape across the region for the rest of the week. This is a setup that may actually take us through the first week or two of August.

Let’s kick things off with what’s happening out there today. A cold front is dropping through the region and it’s bringing some showers and storms with it. Some of the storms may be on the strong side across the south and southeast. Any storm that’s out there may also put down very heavy rainfall.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

 

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Here’s a breakdown of the upcoming pattern:

  • Temps are running below normal out there today and this looks like a trend for the rest of the week and into the weekend. That may actually hang around into part of next week, too.
  • Our front slows down on top of the region and we may see a couple of lows work across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
  • Rounds of showers and storms will be possible from late this week into the weekend. The greatest concentration appears to be across southern Kentucky, but most areas could get in on beneficial rains.
  • It’s also possible for some folks to get too much rain out of that setup.

Make it a great day and take care.

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