Storms to increase this week

Good Monday, everyone.  Our new week is off and running with more of the same in the temperature department, but changes are on the way as a cold front moves in. This front will usher in an increase in rainfall and a decrease in your back porch thermometer.

As always, we start with what’s going on in the precious present. Temps out there today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds. A few scattered showers and storms may go up to help us out a bit. If they do, you can find them on our friendly radars…

Tuesday finds a better shot at a few strong or severe storms, especially across the northern half of the state. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Our front slides into the region on Wednesday and that will bring more in the way of showers and storms to much of the region. The severe threat may also still be around:

Heavy rainfall is a good bet for some and that could cause local high water issues to develop. Does this front slow down on top of the Tennessee Valley and let low pressure develop along it? Many models think so and keep showers and storms going from Thursday into Friday:



That could impact the kickoff of the high school football season.

The days leading up to Labor Day weekend are taking on more of a cooler look with a deepening trough possibly showing up. Look at this trough digging in on the European Model:

That also shows up well on the Canadian:

Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

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Summer keeps on rolling

Good Sunday, everybody. Summer shows no signs of letting up as heat and humidity roll on across our part of the world. This steamy air will continue into the first half of the new week, but changes show up in the form of a cold front.

Let us begin with our Sunday and roll forward. Highs today are in the low 90s for most of central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity levels will make it feel like the upper 90s at times. Skies are mainly dry, but there is a small chance for a shower or storm to go up. Here are your radars just in case:

Scattered showers and storms will be noted on Monday and Tuesday as temps stay in a similar range to today:

A cold front then enters the picture by Wednesday, with several models now slowing this down through Thursday. That would bring us a prolonged chance for showers and storms:

Cooler air comes in behind that for the end of the week into the weekend, but a back and forth temperature pattern is likely to follow that. This should skew warmer than normal, but may also skew wetter than normal. The GFS Ensembles continue to show above average rainfall over the next two weeks. Here are the rainfall departures:

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Summer sizzle and a few storms

Goof Saturday and welcome to the weekend! We have a super-steamy setup settling in across central and eastern Kentucky. This summer sizzle will be accompanied by a few showers and storms over the next few days, with a bigger increase on the way as we head into next week.

Temps out there today range from the upper 80s to low 90s with humidity levels really taking off. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms may move from west to east across the state, losing a little steam the farther east it gets. Here are your radars to track anything that’s out there:

Sunday is another hot and humid day with lows of high 80s and low 90s showing up. The sweat factor is super high because the humidity levels are going to be way up there. I can’t rule out a storm or two going up at some point.

Monday looks very similar in terms of temps and sky condition as we get ready for storms to increase by Tuesday and Wednesday. This increase in storms will happen as moisture returns from the Gulf of Mexico and combines with a system dropping in from the northwest:

That will knock the temps back down for the second half of the week.

The pattern beyond that continues to look fairly active:

While I continue to think the pattern skews warmer than normal through the rest of the month and into September, the latest Ensembles are trending in the opposite direction for the final week of August:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Steam and some storms on the way

Good Friday to one and all. We are heading into the weekend with an increase in steamy temperatures and possible storms. This looks to be a trend that will continue through much of next week.

Temps today are generally in the middle 80s for most of central and eastern Kentucky. Skies will stay partly sunny with a little more humidity than Thursday and that could… COULD… Lead to an isolated storm or two. Most of that action is likely to be just to our west. Here’s regional radar just in case:

A better shot for a few showers and storms rolls in from west to east later tonight into Saturday. This is on the leading edge of the true steamy air pushing in from the southwest. Any storm that’s out there can produce some very heavy rains:

Temps range from the upper 80s to low 90s in many areas. That temperature trend looks to carry us into the first half of next week. This is a true steam bath of an atmosphere.

A few showers and storms will be noted, especially as a system drops in from the northwest by the middle of next week:



Temps will come down several degrees by the middle and end of the week, but this isn’t a pattern likely to turn cool anytime soon. As a matter of fact, I think we are going into a warmer than normal setup likely to carry us through much of September! It may take a hurricane or two to knock this pattern out for good.

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Better weather for a day

Good Thursday, folks. It’s a pretty darn nice looking and feeling weather day across central and eastern Kentucky. This comfy air is behind a weak front that slipped through here last night, but this isn’t going to last very long.

The pattern by the weekend and into next week looks to feature very steamy temperatures and the increasing threat for some thunderstorms. That setup may actually stick around for much of the rest of the month.

Let’s start with what’s going on for the 15th day of the month. Temps are generally in the low and middle 80s for highs with a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity levels are fairly low for the middle of August, so get outside and take advantage of it.

Friday is another fairly nice day as temps inch up a bit. There’s the slightest chance for a late day shower or storm, with a better risk showing up very late Friday night into Saturday:

That’s on the leading edge of some very steamy air coming in from the southwest. Temps around 90 are possible if clouds don’t get in the way, but 90ish looks good for Sunday.

The setup for next week continues to look very steamy and, sometimes, stormy. A system dives in from the northwest early in the week and tries to leave a piece of energy behind. Check out the scattered storm threat from all this:

As all this is happening, the northern Gulf of Mexico starts to come to life. Whether it’s truly tropical or now is still to be determined, but the Gulf may throw some moisture our way late next week into the following weekend:

This wetter than normal trend continues to show up on the 2 week GFS Ensembles rainfall anomalies map:

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Another weak cold front today

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s back to school for Fayette County and several other school districts and the weather is looking decent. We do have a weak cold front passing through and it may touch off a storm or two this afternoon.

All of this continues to be part of a fairly active pattern for August and that pattern looks to ramp up a little more in the coming days.

Locally dense fog may be an issue out there this morning for many in central and eastern Kentucky, but conditions look dry. Temps hit the 80s this afternoon with a shower or thunderstorm going up on a northwesterly flow. Here is regional radar to help you out:

Those numbers come down even more on Thursday with a mainly dry sky. The day looks pretty darn nice.

Temps and humidity levels start to climb some on Friday, but some showers and storms look to rumble in from the west late in the day and continue into Saturday:



Muggy air really settles in behind those storms, but the pattern will throw another front at us late Sunday and early Monday. That will lead to some more storms with that storm threat locking in through the first half of next week. That’s because an upper level system gets left behind to spin across the lower Ohio Valley into the south. That can fire up daily thunderstorms across our region.

The maps below show Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday:

The overall pattern continues to trend back toward wetter than normal around here and for much of the region and country. Check out the two week rainfall anomalies from the GFS Ensembles:

Have a great day and take care.

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A few strong storms today

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a potent cold front crossing the state today, bringing the potential for a few strong to severe storms with it. This boundary will also knock our temp numbers down for a few days.

Our day starts with strong to severe storms dropping in from the northwest. Damaging wind is the main player of the morning. The sun is going to try and pop as high humidity levels surge in here. That means it may feel like a sauna for a few hours as our heat index climbs to near 100 degrees.

A broken line of storms will then develop right on top of central and eastern Kentucky during the afternoon and evening. Not everyone sees storms, but the storms that do crank could be strong or severe. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Here are all the thunder tracking tools you need for this Tuesday:

Scattered showers and storms will be around Wednesday as our temps come down. This is actually a nice brand of air settling in through Thursday as the numbers are back to below normal on average. That’s something we’ve seen more times than not over the past week. Check out the 5 day temperature anomalies from last Wednesday through this past Sunday:

Temps should increase this weekend and early next week, but we will need to be mindful of the potential for a few storms to drop in here from the northwest.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Severe threat for Tuesday

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off a great looking weekend in the bluegrass state, but a cold front is about to turn things stormy. This front slams in here over the next few days, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms.

As usual, let’s begin with where we are today. Highs are pushing 90 in many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s a little more humidity into the mix and that may fire up isolated showers and storms. The greatest risk for that is across northern parts of Kentucky. This is also the area in the low-end risk for a few severe storms:

Follow all the action with your daily dose of tracking tools:

As our cold front sinks into the state on Tuesday, thunderstorms should have no issues cranking. These storms may pack an increasing threat for damaging winds and large hail as they roll east/southeast during the day. Here’s the Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook:

These storms will also be prolific lightning and heavy rain makers, so local flash flooding is something to watch for. Not everyone gets in on this action, with the greatest coverage being across the south and east.

In addition to the storm threat, any sun ahead of our front will make it feel like a sauna for a few hours. Heat index numbers around 100 will be possible.

A disturbance will follow that up on Wednesday and bring another threat for showers and thunderstorms. This is when temps come down several degrees.

The pattern after that finds the heat taking jabs at us through next week. Given the fact we are on the outer edges of this heat, we may see thunderstorms roll in from time to time. For the first time in a while, the Ensembles are painting above normal rainfall around here over the next 2 weeks:

Have a marvelous Monday and take care.

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Steamy temps before storm chances return

Good Sunday, everyone. It may be back to school for a lot of the kiddos, but summer still has a lot left in the tank. Temperatures are surging over the next few days, but a mid-week cold front is looking to cut the heat off before it can fully flex on us.

As usual, we begin with what’s going on out there today. Temps are back into the 85-90 degree range as humidity levels inch up just a bit, but still remain fairly low for this time of year. Skies stay partly sunny.

Temps on Monday will be right around 90 with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s a slight chance for a shower or storm going up late in the day, but most should stay dry.

A strong cold front moves our way later Tuesday into Wednesday to give us the best chance for widespread rain in the past few weeks. Some healthy thunderstorms may accompany this front as it slams through here:


The European agrees:

Temps do come down in a fairly steep way behind that system and should carry us through Thursday, but the numbers should quickly jump by the end of the week into next weekend. That’s when another surge of heat takes a punch at us from the southwest.

As I mentioned with my last post, there’s also the potential for a ring of fire pattern to develop. The Canadian and European Models take that one step further in developing an upper level system and some kind of tropical/semi-tropical system off the east coast:

That would once again knock any heat surge back down pretty quickly.

Have a great day and take care.

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Great weather starts the weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s a VERY nice weather day across the bluegrass state and that’s awesome news for the first ever Railbird Festival out at Keeneland. This nice weather will carry us through Sunday, but the temps are getting ready to surge.

Here’s your forecast for Railbird:

Today: Mostly sunny with low humidity and temps in the low to middle 80s.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds as temps return to the mid and upper 80s. Humidity levels will increase.

The heat and humidity will really settle into town on Monday as thermometers make a run at 90. There’s the chance for a few showers and storms going up in the afternoon hours.

A major heat wave is ongoing across parts of the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The outer edge of that throws some heat our way on Monday as temps make a run at 90 or a little better in some areas. It will be interesting to see if a few thunderstorms fire up to tame the temps a bit in some areas.

Those storms will be ahead of a cold front approaching late Tuesday into Wednesday. The new version of the GFS has been struggling out of the gate. The Euro has been better, but still not up to Euro standards. So, I’m rolling with the Canadian on this one:

The Canadian didn’t overdo the cool of the past week, but it is catching on to what’s behind this front:

As that pulls out of town, we will need to watch for some late season heat making a run at us!

We are getting toward the heart of the hurricane season and the National Hurricane Center is upping the odds for another above average year:

One of the reasons for the increase is because the El Nino appears to be falling apart.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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