A glancing blow of snow

Good Thursday to one and all. A southern snowstorm is delivering a glancing shot of snow to parts of southeastern Kentucky early Thursday. This system will quickly scoot to our east and allow for a clipper to dive in Thursday afternoon.

That system will deliver a round of snow showers and flurries to go with gusty winds and low temperatures. Highs Thursday will stay in the 20s. Normal highs are about 50 degrees for this time of year.

Single digit lows will be possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Afternoon highs for Friday will range from the upper teens to the low 20s, and in the mid- and upper 20s on Saturday.

March looks to roar in with a very busy pattern. Snow, heavy rain and a wintry mix will all be possible from Sunday through the middle of next week as several systems affect our region.

I have you all set to track Thursday’s conditions:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

Have a great day and take care.

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Snow swipes Kentucky Wednesday night

Good Wednesday, everyone. Another snow maker is likely to swipe the Bluegrass State later Wednesday night and early Thursday. This continues to be part of a wild month of winter weather in Kentucky.

We will probably see a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the snow working in Wednesday night. The most likely chance at accumulation will be across southern and eastern parts of the state. Here’s a first-call map:

SPECIAL 2Snow showers and flurries will be possible for the rest of the region as another arctic front works in. That will unleash another arctic cold spell for Friday and Saturday.

I’m really watching the pattern from late this weekend into next week. This is a very ugly setup across our part of the world. I suspect the models will trend colder as we get closer, but the possibilities are endless.

Snow, wintry mix, heavy rain and thunder will all be possible during this time. The forecast models are going crazy with the amount of precipitation they predict over the next 10 days:

GFS

GFS RainEuropean Model

EuroThat would certainly make for a very ugly start to the month of March and would continue the nasty pattern we’ve had for most of February.

I’ve made comparisons to the recent stretch of nasty weather with a similar period we had in 1994. The numbers prove just how similar these periods are:

Lexxington 1994 vs 2015Those are definitely two heavyweight weeks!

Have a great day and take care.

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The cold is king

Good Tuesday, everyone. Arctic cold is back in control of our weather after a brief break over the weekend. Additional pushes of very cold air will be on display later in the week. But what about the chances of snow? That’s something we will have to deal with on more of a short-term basis.

Record or near-record cold is with us to start the day in parts of the region. A weak, light snow-maker is brushing far southeastern Kentucky, with some minor accumulation.

The next system is much stronger and continues to show up farther north and west on some of the latest data for Wednesday night. The Hi-Res NAM simulated radar:

NAMThat system diving in from the plains is trying its very best to tug that system closer to Kentucky. Let’s see what trends emerge overnight and Wednesday.

Regardless, he plains system will bring in snow showers and flurries on Thursday.

A messy system looks to take aim at our region late this weekend and early next week. That could bring a little bit of everything as we open the book on March. Another round of very cold air might follow that.

Speaking of spring and colder weather, the long-range CFS keeps the below-normal temps through early April:

CFSHave a great day and take care.

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Another week of record cold

Good Monday and welcome to the final week of February. Old Man Winter has been pounding the Bluegrass State of late, and that looks to continue. Another round or two of record-setting cold is likely this week.

Some snow showers and flurries might start the day across eastern parts of the state. In many areas, single digits will show up, with a few possibly going below zero. Wind chills will be even lower.

Tuesday morning lows might shatter records across our region:

Euro

Those wind chill numbers are brutal!

Another arctic front arrives Wednesday with a chance of light snow. Temps again head toward the single digits by Thursday morning on gusty winds from the northwest. That will again knock wind chills below zero.

Friday morning lows are brutal … again:

Euro 2

This might be the coldest air so late in the season to ever hit Kentucky. Those same numbers will continue to skew our monthly departures deeper into record numbers. February 2015 might go down as the coldest on record in many cities and possibly the state.

Legendary!

Track the rest of your weather:

Have a great day and take care.

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Arctic temps moving back in

Good Sunday to one and all. Our weather has taken a serious walk on the wild side of late as Old Man Winter has been rather mean to the bluegrass state. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look to change in the coming weeks as our pattern continues to run on the harsh side of things.

Before we look ahead, let’s look back at one of the worst weeks of winter weather we’ve ever had around here.

– We started the week with the biggest snowstorm in nearly 2 decades.

– That was followed up by a 2″-5″ snowstorm that helped give us one of the deepest snow packs on record.

– Every single day featured single digit temps or colder.

– History making cold moved in for Thursday and Friday with records absolutely smashed.

– Friday morning gave us some of the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the state of Kentucky.

– Late Friday and Saturday… another winter storm slammed the region with sleet, freezing rain and snow.

This is a week that is now legendary and one that will be the standard bearer for years to come.

Temps will be below freezing for much of the day and that will could everything ice up… use caution if you’re out driving.

From there… it’s more harsh winter weather. Another shot of arctic air moves in late today and could produce some light snowflakes…

NAM

That brings in another round of single digits and possible below zero numbers…

GFS Temps

Another arctic front sweeps in on Wednesday with some snow showers. Guess what follows that up?

GFS Temps 2

We’re already on pace for one of the coldest Februarys on record… the week ahead of us will only push us closer to the top.

A few days ago, I started talking about another signal for a winter weather even showing up for the end of next week into the weekend. That signal is still there and is a littler stronger. A storm system shows up on all the models…

GFS

If you are tired of the harsh winter weather… I wish I had some better news. This looks to continue deep into March!

At this rate, many schools will be in session through June, again. That leads me into this song that teachers should love. It even gives your friendly weatherdude a shout out…

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Winter storm tracker

Good Saturday, everyone. A winter storm continues to push across Kentucky and is bringing a nasty mix of precipitation. Sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain will all be likely out there today.

It’s very difficult to pinpoint which type of precipitation will be dominant for any one location. Some significant amounts of ice and snow will be possible as this system has a ton of moisture with it.

Temps might go above freezing at times, and that will further complicate  the precipitation setup.

I have you all set to do some tracking:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the winter storm

Good evening, everyone. A Winter Storm Warning is out for the entire state of Kentucky through Saturday. A nasty mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow are moving in and this mess will likely cause a lot of issues.

I am VERY confident of our region getting smacked around by this storm, but less confident on the placement of precipitation types and totals. Here’s a rough outline of how this looks to me at the moment…

Special 2

That map is basically just for what falls tonight through early Saturday afternoon. The totals and boundaries are very flexible on my end and will be moved around with future updates. This may wind up being a total “nowcast” storm as we see how the precipitation types are playing out on the fly.

The late day trend among the models is for a much heavier swath of snow setting up along the area I outlined in my earlier update.

NAM

NAMThe GFS is a little farther south than the NAM…

GFS

The short range model known as the RAP only goes through 11am and shows a similar look…

RAP

If those models verify, we would be looking at some serious issues developing because of the amount of snow. That would be a heavy, wet snow that would be falling on top of a lot of snow already out there. Roofs beware!!!!

To the south of all that… snow and sleet are already breaking out in western and southern Kentucky. This can cause accumulations of both before we see more in the way of freezing rain take over later tonight. The potential for significant icing is increasing.

As mentioned, this is a VERY HIGH IMPACT winter storm. The models are just now catching on to the snowpack and arctic air in place and now you will see a lot of forecasts shift based on that. I will update things again tonight and on WKYT-TV at 11.

I have your tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Take care.

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Watching another winter storm

Good Friday to one and all. Our day is starting out with history making cold temperatures across the bluegrass state. Readings this morning will likely range from – 5 to -30 and that will give us one of the coldest mornings on record for Kentucky.

This comes on the cusp of a recent snowstorm that produced some of the heaviest one day snowfalls we’ve ever had. Our history making week continues as we track a developing winter storm into our region late tonight into the weekend.

This is a storm system that is likely to bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain our way. It’s going to be tough to figure out which areas get hit with what kind of precipitation and how much.

A WINTER STORM WATCH is out for most of Kentucky…

SPECIAL 2

That will likely be updated to include additional counties and to switch it to a warning for some.

Snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely for our region. Figuring out who gets what of each will be the difficult part. Here’s a preliminary look…

SPECIAL

Again, that’s the early call and a lot can change. This system is loaded with moisture and will put down a TON of precipitation. I will have another update later today.

In the short term, track what we have out there early today:

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter Storm Watch starts late Friday

Good evening, everyone. As we get set for another bitterly cold night in the bluegrass state, another winter storm is on the way. That arrives just in time for the weekend and will bring a nasty mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow.

A Winter Storm Watch is now out for much of the region:

This could get very ugly!

Stay warm and take care.

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Record-setting cold

Good Thursday to one and all. We are rewriting the weather history books across the Bluegrass State. Record amounts of snow have given way to record low temperatures. This dangerously cold air will hang tough through Friday.

The recent snows have put Lexington in some rare territory in terms of snow depth. Take a look at where we stand:

Winter Storm 2015Officially, this is tied for the second-highest snow depth on record. That’s the snow history part of the equation. Now it’s time for the temperatures to take center stage. We’re likely to start out Thursday with readings in the minus 5 to minus 15 range. That would shatter the record here in Lexington.

Wind chills early Thursday will be in the minus 20 to minus 30 degree range, and that’s dangerous. A wind chill warning is out for early Thursday:

 

High’s Thursday will reach only the single digits, with the wind chill staying well below zero. Some snow showers or flurries might develop in the afternoon.

Thursday night is when things can get totally out of control. Readings will drop even lower and could reach minus 20 degrees. Some of the computer models are showing the potential for even colder air:

GFS Temps 2The lowest temperature ever recorded in Lexington is minus 21 in January 1963. Can it get that cold tonight? It’s a possibility, but only if skies are completely clear.

I’m still trying to figure out exactly how our weekend plays out. Some thoughts:

– Snow develops across Western Kentucky on Friday and lifts to the northeast across the rest of the state during the evening.

– Accumulating snows might be seen before sleet and freezing rain begin to take over late Friday night and early Saturday.  The first half of Saturday looks icy, as temps struggle to get to the freezing mark.

– Rain might take over for a while later Saturday into Saturday night, but I suspect the models’ forecasts are still too warm. They also are probably too strong and too far north and west with the surface low during this time.

I leave you with Thursday’s tracking tools:

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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