A few hot days before a major cool blast

Good Friday to one and all. Heat and humidity are taking center stage across the region today and Saturday, but a big change is set to follow. Much cooler air is poised to take control of the pattern by early next week.

Let me begin with a recap of something I wrote for yesterday’s post:

Friday and Saturday feature the hottest days of the summer. Daytime highs range from 90-95 in many areas with a heat index above 100 for many. I know there’s an Excessive Heat Warning (heat index of 110 or higher for 2 straight hours or more or 4 straight days of 105 or higher for 2 consecutive hours on each day ) out for many, but we seem to be lowering the standards for that. This is Heat Advisory material for many in central and eastern Kentucky and some may struggle to even get to that (105 for 2 straight hours or more).

The Excessive Heat Warning began Thursday and this was the end result on the Kentucky Mesonet sites…

Only 7 out of nearly 75 sites managed to hit 90 degrees for a high. This wasn’t even the hottest day of the past week, let alone something worthy of an Excessive Heat Warning.

Here’s a look at the Heat Index temps shortly before 4pm:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will try to go back up this afternoon and evening, especially in the south and southeast. Here are your Friday tracking toys:

The threat for a few storms will increase a bit on Saturday and that could play a factor in keeping temps down just a bit…

Showers and storms will become more widespread on Sunday and that is obviously going to keep temps down. Some of those storms may be on the strong side as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That front moves in here on Monday with more showers and storms around:

That’s also a setup that can put down some very heavy rains in our part of the world… Again.

The air coming in behind that is awesome and is straight out of September:

Highs are going to struggle to get out of the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday as lows drop into the 50s.

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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Cranking up some brief heat

Good Thursday, everyone. We continue to track a few storms across the region, but it’s the heat and humidity taking center stage for the next few days. This spell of heat won’t last very long as a surge of September air moves in early next week.

Flash flooding hit parts of the region last night and there’s a chance for some local high water issues again today. Scattered showers and storms will be back in the region, packing a heavy rain punch. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Friday and Saturday feature the hottest days of the summer. Daytime highs range from 90-95 in many areas with a heat index above 100 for many. I know there’s an Excessive Heat Warning (heat index of 110 or higher for 2 straight hours or more or 4 straight days of 105 or higher for 2 consecutive hours on each day ) out for many, but we seem to be lowering the standards for that. This is Heat Advisory material for many in central and eastern Kentucky and some may struggle to even get to that (105 for 2 straight hours or more).

A few storms will go up during the afternoon hours for Friday and Saturday, with an increase in storms for Sunday. This is ahead of a strong cold front ready to blast through here on Monday. That could spark some pretty big boomers as much cooler air crashes in behind it:

Highs for Tuesday and Wednesday may not get out of the 70s as lows reach the 50s.

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Barry continues to bring heavy rain

Good Wednesday to one and all. The remnants of Hurricane Barry continue to roll across the region, bringing more heavy rain producing showers and storms. These storms are dumping a lot of heavy rain on top of central and eastern Kentucky. This is leading to another day of possible flash flooding.

In the longer range, we are tracking heat for the weekend followed by a much cooler pattern into next week.

As always, let’s begin with today and hit the fast-forward button. These showers and storms will put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. That gives us the potential for some high water issues to develop. In addition to the heavy rainfall, a few of the storms may be strong.

Here are your mid-week tracking tools:

A few showers and storms will fire back up on Thursday as low-level tropical moisture remains. Once again, we will need to be on guar for local flash flooding issues.

As the hotter air moves in for Friday, we just can’t shake the thunderstorms. Scattered boomers will be around as temps head toward 90 or so.

A similar setup will be with us this weekend as hot and humid weather continues. A scattered storm or two will be around on Saturday, but the storm action looks to ramp up on Sunday. That’s as a strong cold front dives in from the northwest into Monday. Strong to severe storms will be possible ahead of this front as MUCH cooler air takes control behind it:

There’s another front lurking behind that one later next week:

That’s a lot of below normal air showing up:

Have a great day and take care.

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Tropical showers and thunderstorms

Good Tuesday, everybody. It’s another day of tracking tropical rain producing showers and thunderstorms across the region. This action is along and ahead of the remnants of Hurricane Barry and will continue to increase over the next few days.

Today’s rain is more prominent across the western half of the state, with scattered showers and storms in the east. Locally heavy rains will be possible from any storm that goes up. In addition to the heavy rains, a few strong or severe storms are possible, especially across the west.

Here are your Tuesday tracking toys:

Showers and storms are fairly widespread for Wednesday and we will continue to watch for torrential rains that can cause flash flooding once again.

Scattered showers and storms will be noted on Thursday and Friday as a surge of heat moves in for the weekend. Temps may very well hit the low 90s with a heat index several degrees toastier than that.

This shouldn’t last long as a strong cold front drops in from the northwest early next week. This could bring some big time boomers in here:

That unleashes a cooler brand of air and some of the models like that hanging around a while:

We shall see how much staying power it has, but I’ll take it.

Make it a great day and take care.

 

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Rain from Barry slowly showing up

Good Monday, folks. What’s left of Hurricane Barry is working northward across the Mississippi Valley and is slowing rolling our way. This will increase the threat for tropical rain producing showers and storms over the next few days.

As usual, we begin with what’s cracking out there today. Humidity levels are way, way up there, leading to scattered showers and storms. Any storm that goes up may put down heavy rain and be strong. It is important to note that the greatest concentration of showers and storms today is across the west. This is also the area with the best chance at seeing a few severe storms.

Here are your Monday tracking tools:

The rain from Barry then slowly slides east across the state Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing the potential for more showers and storms. Heavy rainfall continues to be a good bet, but it’s not raining all the time. Once again, local flash flooding issues may develop.

A big heat ridge is going to build in from the plains into the Great Lakes later this week into the weekend. Some clusters of thunderstorms may dive in here ahead of this at some point and that’s something to watch for. A few days of heat are a good bet, but the hottest air appears to bypass us to the north.

If you recall, the medium range models and seasonal models were all advertising some cooler shots diving into the eastern half of the country for the middle of this month. Obviously, Barry changed the pattern, but should we give up on those cooler shots? Once Barry completely gets out of the way, the original signal for cooler temps comes back:

GFS

GFS Ensembles

Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

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Tropical rains to increase

Good Sunday to one and all. We are putting the wraps on the weekend with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. This action will continue to ramp up in the days ahead as the remnants of Hurricane Barry roll across the region.

As always, let’s begin with today. A weak cold front is dropping in from the north as offshoot tropical moisture pushes in from the south. These two will combine forces for some heavy rainfall in a few spots. Not everyone gets rain today, but some hefty totals are possible for those who do. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

What’s left of Barry rolls this way from Monday through early Thursday. This won’t be constant rains, but a general 1″-3″ will fall across the state during this time. Higher amounts will be possible for some areas and those are the areas that can experience flash flooding issues.

Humidity levels will be sky high, but high temps come way down.

Once the remnants of Barry slide to our east, a surge of heat is building into the plains and Midwest. This setup can sometimes produce thunderstorm clusters riding the ridge into our region. Some of the models are hinting at this potential next weekend:

Hot temps are likely to surge in here into next week and could give us a nice little run of real deal heat before a trough tries to dig into the eastern part of the country.

Have a great day and take care.

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All eyes on Barry

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We continue to see mainly dry conditions out there today, but tropical moisture is about to increase in our part of the world. That will really be the case early next week as the remnants of Barry roll our way.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Highs should range from 85-90 in most areas with a mainly dry sky. There is a slight chance for a shower or storm across our southern counties. Here is your regional radar to help you out:

A weak cold front drops in from the north on Sunday and will combine forces with offshoot tropical moisture to produce a few showers and storms, A setup like this can produce a few cloudbursts, so keep that in mind.

Hurricane Barry is makes landfall early today in Louisiana, bringing a huge and a ton of rain. Here are the tracking toys to follow along:

cone graphic

Barry has been a very unbalanced storm with much of the rain on the eastern side of the center of circulation. That’s expected to be the case well inland as this storm spins up the Mississippi River Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley through the middle of next week. The WPC rainfall forecast indicates the potential for some hefty numbers:

 

That matches up well with the potential impact zone I put out several days ago:

The greatest impact on our weather is likely to come from later Monday through early Thursday. Heavy rainfall will be likely during this time and that’s something we will have to keep a close eye on.

Have a good one and take care.

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Barry may throw tropical rains our way

Good Friday, folks. It’s a much better feeling day across central and eastern Kentucky, but we are now focusing our attention on the Gulf of Mexico. Barry is about to slam into the Louisiana coast and could impact our weather by early next week.

The weather out there today is much better than the past few days as a better brand of air moves into the region. Most areas remain dry, but that front is close enough to spawn isolated showers and storms across southern Kentucky…

The threat for a few showers and storms will continue across southern parts of the state on Saturday as we begin to feel the steamy air returning.

It’s at this point we may start to feel some indirect impacts from Barry. This system may become a weak hurricane before heading into Louisiana into early Saturday.

Here’s the satellite view of what’s going on in the Gulf:

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to trend farther east and is just about on par with the map I’ve had out since early this week:

cone graphic

Here are the latest hurricane models:

GFS Ensembles

The European Model is showing some hefty rainfall into our region:

The prime time for that system to impact our weather is from Monday through Wednesday. Before that, watch for a few storms to go up on Sunday as a weak cold front drops in from the northwest. That could combine with some offshoot tropical moisture to produce heavy rains.

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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Storms on the move as we watch the Gulf

Good Thursday to one and all. A cold front is rolling across the region today, bringing the potential for some strong storms and heavy rains. At the same time, our tropical system is gathering steam in the Gulf of Mexico and could have an impact on our week.

I will get to Barry in a bit, but let’s start with today’s storm threat. These storms may pack a bit of a punch and could be strong or severe. Damaging wind is the primary player with any strong storm. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rains may cause flash flooding issues to develop.

Once the front moves through, Friday looks like a really nice day as temps and humidity levels come way down. This nice stuff carries us into Saturday, but the numbers start to inch up once again and a stray storm chance shows up.

Ok, let’s talk about the tropics. Here’s the current Sat shot of the developing system:

Barry is likely to become a hurricane before coming ashore along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Here’s the latest information and track forecast from the NHC:

cone graphic

As far as some of the computer models go. The various hurricane models continue to edge a little east and show the potential for this system to impact our region:

Here are the latest tracks from the GFS Ensembles:

I made this map a few days ago and I’m still rolling with it:

The best chance for some tropical rains would be from Monday through Wednesday of next week.

I leave you with the Thursday edition of your storm tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Steamy to stormy

Good Wednesday to one and all. Today is likely to be the hottest day of the year, so far, as temps surge into the low 90s. This is ahead of a cold front working toward the region later tonight and Thursday. That will offer up a little heat relief for the end of the week.

As we are tracking all this, we are also watching a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico. I’ll get to that in a bit.

Let’s start with today’s temps. Highs will generally reach the low 90s in most areas, but the heat index will hit the mid and upper 90s. Ouch.

Scattered showers and storms will also go up, especially in the afternoon and evening. Here are your tracking toys of the day:

The best threat for storms comes later tonight into Thursday. Some of the Thursday storms may even be on the strong side. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday:

Any storm that goes up will have torrential rains that can also cause local high water issues.

Temps do come down some for Thursday into Friday, with Friday feeling pretty nice for this time of year.

Steamy air returns this weekend and is likely to bring the chance for a few storms back into the picture.

This brings us to our developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. “Barry” is slowly becoming organized and should head toward Louisiana later this week:

Here’s the latest forecasts from the various hurricane models:

The GFS Ensembles:

Landfalling tropical systems from Louisiana usually have an impact our weather and I think this may very well be the case with Barry.

Here is my very early call:

If it is to impact our region, the prime time for that to happen would be early next week.

Happy Wednesday and take care.

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