Cool temps continue to settle in

Good Sunday to one and all. Your calendar officially says it’s summertime, but mother nature has other ideas. A very cool air mass continues to push in across our region and it could give us lows near record territory in the coming days.

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

Today’s forecast: Awesome. That was easy. 🙂

Monday’s weather looks very similar to today, but a few clouds will sneak in during the afternoon and evening. This is ahead of a cold front dropping in here Monday night. That front may bring a few showers and storms our way:

Highs for Tuesday may be even cooler than today and Monday. The NAM has low 70s:

Lows over the next several mornings can drop into the upper 40s and low 50s with clear skies. That’s about as cool as it can get this time of year and push us into record territory.

Normal temps return by the end of the week, but another cold front arrives by the weekend. This front should spawn showers and storms and usher in another round of below normal numbers:

That front may actually decide to hang around into our 4th of July holiday. Currently, the models are advertising the potential for showers and storms:

Have a great day and take care.

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Much cooler air blows in

Good Saturday to one and all. Our wild weather ride is about to take on a much different look in the coming days. Instead of tracking flooding and severe storms, a BIG cool down is on the way this weekend into much of next week.

Tropical Depression Cindy brought all kinds of problems on Friday. From flooding rains to downed trees and power lines, we had it all across central and eastern Kentucky. Thankfully, things are looking better out there today.

Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to around 80 with a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday looks even better with 50 to start and middle 70s to end. It doesn’t get much better than that… Or does it?

Another front arrives Monday with a small shower chance. Highs on Monday may not get out of the lower 70s:

Tuesday morning lows from that same model are pretty amazing to see:

Record lows are a strong possibility if skies are clear.

As a matter of fact, the GFS has more cooler than normal temps showing up through the 4th of July week:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Flash flood and severe storms tracker

Hood Friday to one and all. Tropical depression Cindy will roll across the Bluegrass State late in the day, bringing the threat of flooding and severe thunderstorms. The setup is there for some potentially significant problems.

Cindy should still be a depression as it moves into Kentucky, marking the second storm to do that in the past three Junes. Bill was a depression when it swept across Kentucky in June 2015. One system doing that is rare. To have another do the same thing two years later is in another stratosphere.

Here’s the latest track of Cindy from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Flooding is a big threat along and north of the track, where several inches of rain will fall through Friday night. In addition to the flood threat, severe thunderstorms will develop across the central and east Friday afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible.

All of this mess moves away by Saturday morning, with a very cool air mass settling in this weekend into the middle of next week. This might be one of the coolest I’ve seen for this time of year.

I have the blog all set as your one-stop shop for tracking the severe-weather day:

S HGHH

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Rounds of tropical rain move in

Good Thursday, folks. It’s a deep conveyor belt of tropical moisture aimed at the region for the next few days. This juice comes courtesy of Tropical Storm Cindy, and it’s likely to be enough to cause some high water issues through Friday night.

Thursday’s rain will increase from south to north in the afternoon and evening, and it could be heavy at times. The bulk of the heaviest rain is likely to fall across Central and Western Kentucky, with the east seeing very little.

Rounds of heavy rain and storms will then really kick in Friday and Friday night. That’s when what’s left of Cindy crosses into southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

With the heaviest rain falling from Friday and Friday night, that’s when our greatest flood threat will come. Overall, between now and Saturday morning, most of the state will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain. Locally higher amounts are possible.

Please keep a close eye on area waterways during this time.

The rain will end early Saturday, with better weather coming in during the day. This is a cool pattern taking shape from the weekend into early next week.

I have you all set to track the first round of rain coming at us:

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking an upcoming flood threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. A tropical storm will send a lot of rain our way in the coming days, leading to an increasing threat of high-water problems. After the rains shut down, a big blast of cool air is set to follow.

Let’s start with Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid- and upper 80s, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Here’s your regional radar:

Tropical Storm Cindy is a weak storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s packing quite a bit of rain. That system will come ashore later Wednesday or Wednesday night, then turn the corner toward the lower Ohio Valley as it becomes extra-tropical. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Showers and storms will increase from south to north later Thursday, and some of this action could cause some local high-water concerns. The bulk of the tropical rain arrives Friday and into early Saturday.

Widespread amounts of 1 to 4 inches will be possible, with locally higher amounts. Here’s the current flood threat map:

This is a setup to monitor closely as we roll into the next few days.

After the heavy rain shuts down early Saturday, a big blast of cool air moves in into the first half of next week. We are likely to string together several days of highs in the 70s.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Watching the Gulf of Mexico

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a pretty nice weather day going on out there, but the same can’t be said for the Gulf Coast states. A tropical system is brewing offshore, and there’s a chance we get some rain from it later this week.

Let’s start with Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the low 80s under mainly dry skies. I still can’t rule out a popcorn shower.

Steamy air moves in for Wednesday, with another slight chance of a shower or storm. Highs will be in the mid- and upper 80s.

From there, it’s all about what happens to our tropical system in the Gulf. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

The latest models are trying to bring the remnants of this system into our region by Friday. That might interact with a cold front, dropping heavy rain:

Here’s the GFS:

The Canadian:

The Canadian rainfall totals are absolutely off the charts:

That setup is one for us to watch very closely.

Behind that system, a huge blast of cooler-than-normal air will overspread much of the country:

Make it a great day and take care.

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The week ahead looks busy

Good Monday, everyone. We are rolling into a new week of weather, with heavy rain starting things out. Later in the week, we will focus on a possible impact from a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Storms across our region caused problems Sunday night, with lots of trees knocked down in the Lexington metro area. Those storms also produced a lot of rain across the area, leading to local flash-flood problems.

That heavy rain will be around early Monday, especially in the east, and it could cause more local high-water problems:

The rain will diminish from northwest to southeast, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Tuesday will feel much better, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, and lower humidity. There will be a small shower chance around the region.

Warmer air moves in for the middle of the week, but the focus then turns toward the tropics. A system in the Gulf is likely develop later Monday. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

There’s a chance that system could throw moisture our way by the end of the week or the start of the weekend. The GFS shows this potential:

Regardless of whether we get direct rain from that tropical system, we are likely to see a big blast of cool air coming behind it. Highs early next week might be in the 70s for a few days.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking the severe weather threat

Good Sunday and a big Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. The forecast for the day isn’t looking to be the best in the world, with severe thunderstorms and heavy rains d developing. These two in tandem could cause some issues.

The best chance for severe storms will roll across the region late this afternoon into the evening. These storms may bring damaging winds and large hail to much of the area.

In addition to the severe threat, these storms may drop a few inches of rain in a short amount of time. This may lead to local flash flooding issues, especially across the east.

The rain and storms will continue into the first part of the Monday, before it finally settles down.

Here are the tracking toys for the day:

S HGHH

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Highs on Monday will be in the 70s as skies slowly clear. Tuesdays weather looks great with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels will be way down, too.

Temps will take off again for the second half of next week with scattered storms working back in. A tropical system may develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. If that happens, it will have a lot to say about the overall pattern across the country for the week ahead.

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe threat for Sunday

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s another very steamy day across the bluegrass state, but changes are on the way. As we make the transition into a cooler brand of air, we will have to be on guard for severe storms late in the weekend.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs out there on this Saturday will be around 90 for many areas with a heat index in the low 90s. Partly sunny skies could spawn a storm or two at any point:

A strong cold front arrives late Sunday with an increase in showers and storms. Some of these storms could produce damaging winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the region in the severe risk for Sunday:

In addition to the severe threat, very heavy rains will be noted and we could be seeing some flash flooding. A general 1″-3″ of rain will be possible later Sunday through Monday.

Temps behind this front will really come down with highs on Monday only in the 70s:

Nice weather moves in for Tuesday with upper 70s and low 80s and mainly dry skies. Storms may return into the middle of next week as hot temps try to return:

Something tropical may try to develop in the Gulf of Mexico during this time.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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More steam and storms this weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our weekend weather looks a whole lot like the pattern we have been seeing for the past week or so. Steamy temps and rounds of storms continue to dominate the pattern across the Commonwealth.

Highs Friday range from 85 to 90 in most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Muggy air will make it feel a few degrees warmer than that. There will be isolated showers or storms from time to time:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I’m going to be on guard for a complex of storms going up Friday night and early Saturday. That’s not set in stone, but similar patterns have been known to fire up such a system.

Highs on Saturday will be similar to Friday, near 90 for most of the area.

Storms will then become widespread as we head into Sunday and early Monday. That’s when a strong cold front moves in from the northwest:

A few of the storms might be strong and could put down torrential amounts of rain. Given the recent rounds of heavy rain, additional high-water problems are possible in some areas.

Much cooler air then comes for early next week, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

A tropical system might develop in the Gulf of Mexico. If that is the case, it would have a big impact on the overall pattern for the country.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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