A little winter on the way

Good Monday, everyone. It’s a windy and sometimes wet day across the bluegrass state as we get ready for a blast of winter weather. This moves in on Tuesday and carries us into Tuesday night with rain changing to sleet and snow then snow.

I’m taking a conservative approach with my First Call For Snowfall…

You can see the headlines I’ve added to the map. We will see one heck of a cutoff on the western side of this and pinpointing where this sets up is a pain in the keester. We will also see rain change to sleet and snow. How long it stays sleet in any one location will impact totals. I’ve added a locally higher to the 1″-4″ region in case some of these areas switch a little quicker. Again, this is a First Call, not a Last Call. I guarantee I will be making adjustments to the lines and totals before the day is over. 🙂

It is interesting to note the WPC is highlighting a large chunk of the state with the potential for 4″+ snows…

The GFS continues to be right in line with this thinking…

If we take that map and match it with the average from the 21 member SREF, we find a very similar look…

Again, that’s smoothed out because it’s averaging 21 different runs.

The Canadian Model isn’t too far off from the GFS and SREF…

The Short Range Canadian is also similar…

 The NAM continues to target southeastern Kentucky with the snow and sleet. This run looks choppy with the snowfall…

Here’s the sleet forecast from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is also targeting the southeastern part of the state with the best snow potential…

Here are your tracking tools:

Have a great day and take care.

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Rain and some snow on the way

Good Sunday, folks. It’s another nice day across the land, but things are changing as we hit the new week. A couple of different systems will bring rain and snow our way as we kick off the week and there’s the increasing potential for accumulating snow for some.

Clouds will thicken out there today as temps stay in the low 50s for many of us. I can’t rule out a few showers this evening but the majority of the action holds off until later tonight and Monday.

That’s when a cold front moves in here with rain ahead of it as low pressure works into the Great Lakes. Temps on Monday may flirt with 60 degrees.

That front slows down as it crosses the state on Tuesday with cold air crashing in behind it. At the same time, a wave of low pressure develops and works along our boundary, enhancing precipitation along and, especially, behind the front. That would allow for rain to change to a mix and then snow. Where is this front as the low develops? That’s still the big question.

The trend has been for this to happen in a region that can bring a much better chance for accumulating snow across parts of Kentucky.

Let me say that the following maps and models are just that… Maps and models that can change from run to run.

The NAM decided to really hit the snow potential across central and eastern Kentucky:

Here’s the snow map from that run of the NAM:

The GFS isn’t as juiced up in the north and west, but has a similar theme and is farther northwest than earlier runs:

Here’s the snow map from that run of the GFS:

The Canadian Model is also keying on a similar area:

Here’s the snow map from that run of the Euro:

The European Model went back down the progressive road compared to the last run of the model:

Here’s the snowfall map from that run of the Euro:

Again, don’t go waxing the sleds, let’s see what the Sunday trends hold.

The temp crash on Monday night is fairly prolific and with the winds, it’s going to feel even colder. Check out the numbers:

Make it a good one and take care.

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All eyes on early next week

Good Saturday to one and all. Here’s hoping this blog entry finds each of you living life to the absolute fullest. It’s a pretty nice day across central and eastern Kentucky, but things are going to change by Monday. That’s when a system moves in with wind, rain, mild temps with cold and some snow to follow by Tuesday.

Let’s start things out with today. Highs are mainly in the 40s with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds will continue to thicken on Sunday ahead of the next system moving in here early in the week.

As we get closer to the early week system, you are starting to see the models showing the wave of low pressure idea I’ve been throwing out there for the better part of the past week. Much of what happens with the evolution of this depends on a piece of energy coming from the southwest:

If you want snow in Kentucky, you want to see that get out a little ahead of the arctic cold trough coming in from the northwest. Does this trough pick up some of that or does it leave it behind to let it more more to the east. That’s the difference between snow and no snow for us.

Obviously, I’ve been on the wave train for a while now, so I think it can impact part of Kentucky with snow. Here’s a rough outline of the setup:

Where does that front get to before it slows down and lets this ripple of low pressure ride along it? That’s what I have to nail down over the weekend.

The models are getting more interested in this feature. Here’s what the late Friday evening GFS looks like:

Obviously, it’s keying on a band of snow across parts of Kentucky. Here’s the snow map from that particular run:

The Canadian Model is also showing a similar process, but is a bit farther southeast with the system and still has the arctic clipper on Wednesday:

Here’s the snow map from that particular run of the Canadian:

The European Model went from being the most progressive with this system to being the absolute slowest:

Here’s the snow map from that run of the Euro:

Don’t put faith in any one model run you see here or coming out today. Let’s watch for trends to see when and where this wave of low pressure may form along the front on Tuesday.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Light rain rolls in today

Good Friday, everyone. Light rain is rolling across the state today, but this is a quick hitting band of showers. That’s the good news. The bad news comes early next week when a much bigger storm moves our way. That one unleashes a major pattern change behind it.

As always, let’s start with today and roll forward. Temps are mainly in the 40s as cloudy skies and showers control the day. The rain will taper from west to east this afternoon and evening as chillier air moves in from the north.

Here are your regional radars to do a little tracking:

 

The weather for the weekend continues to look pretty good as we wait for the next system early next week. Here are some things to watch for:

  • Rain develops Sunday night and continues through Monday. Locally heavy rains are a good bet.
  • Temps ahead of our arctic front can spike close to 60 degrees on Monday, then come crashing down from west to east Monday night into Tuesday. Many areas likely fall below freezing by Tuesday afternoon.
  • As the arctic front moves through, we will need to watch for a wave of low pressure to develop along it. If this happens, a band of accumulating snow will be possible.
  • Once this moves away early Wednesday, watch for a sneaky system from the northwest. This could deliver some light snows in the arctic air.
  • That arctic air may keep highs in the 20s for both Wednesday and Thursday. Lows can reach deep into the teens with wind chills even colder.

The GFS continues to grow more adamant about the wave of low pressure idea:

The GFS Ensembles have really been touting this potential for several runs and the latest keeps the trend going:

The Canadian Model is starting to show this possibility, too:

The Canadian then sees that possible second system on Wednesday:

The European Model is usually wound up with a big storm in this type of a setup, but it’s pretty progressive without the wave on the front:

No matter which model is right, if any, that’s some big time cold coming behind that. This cold ain’t fooling around on the GFS Ensembles into the lead up to Christmas:

Throw in an active southern storm stream and things may get interesting.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Rain returns on Friday

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s another beautiful day in the neighborhood, but that’s about to change. A light rain maker rolls in here on Friday, but it’s a system early next week that will get much of the attention. That one will bring one heck of a temp drop and the potential for rain and snow.

Temps today are back into the upper 40s to low 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will increase tonight ahead of the next system.

As we get closer to Friday, the uglier things are looking. Rain will overspread the state and that will make for some nasty conditions. Rain totals are increasing and could approach a half inch in some areas:

Saturday starts in the 20s and ends in the 40s with a mostly sunny sky. Clouds will then increase on Sunday and we could see a shower or two by evening.

The system moving in here early next week looks like a wild one. Rain, gusty winds, some thunder, temps near 60, a major temp crash, lows in the teens with some snows.

The GFS seems to have the best grasp of this system:

The European Model is likely dragging it’s feet too much with the initial system, but shows the major arctic blast well. It also shows another system right behind it and taking a southern route:

The overall pattern continues to be skewed colder than normal across much of the country. That’s been the trend since late October and it shows no signs of letting up. Look at the temp departures from the GFS Ensembles through December 20th:

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Quiet for a few days

Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s a quiet few days taking shape as our temps get closer to normal for the first time in a while. As we look farther down the road, we are tracking a weak system for Friday with a big storm system ready to impact us early next week. This will unlock arctic air for much of the country.

Before we get to weather, this happened Tuesday…

Everyone finally agrees the Blue Grass Airport thermometer is terribly wrong. As you know, this is something I’ve been drawing attention to for years. The folks at the NWS want to do the right thing and I’m confident this will finally get fixed soon. To those folks who’ve given me grief over the years for my constant bashing of the official Lexington temps and snowfall measurements, everyone today agrees it’s been poor and has to get better. I expect a personal apology from each of you. 😉

As far as the weather is concerned, Wednesday and Thursday continue to look good, so enjoy it.

A fast moving shower maker rolls through here on Friday with chilly temps:

A cold shot of air comes in for Friday night into Saturday.

Early next week will feature a major arctic attack showing up across the country. The details on how it all evolves and what impacts it has on our weather remain to be seen. The first arctic front looks to arrive by Tuesday. Ahead of this comes a lot of rain and wind for Monday, with the potential for a switch to snow as temps crash Tuesday:

That’s some really cold air coming in here for the middle of next week and that could mean wind chills get way down there.

The arctic air will likely hang tough across the northern half of the country, with the potential for winter weather makers riding underneath it later next week:

It’s not just the operational models that are going frigid, the ensembles are too. Keep in mind, the GFS ensemble mean shows the average of 21 members and usually smoothes out in time. Look at what it’s showing for temp departures from early next week into early the following week:

That would also be conducive for some snows. That’s something the average of the nearly 50 member Euro Ensembles are seeing:

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Still on the cold side

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another very cold day here across central and eastern Kentucky as snow showers and flurries taper off. From here, we have a couple of smaller systems on the way this week, but a much bigger storm looks to impact us early next week.

Temps today are back into the 30s for highs and that’s more than 10 degrees colder than normal. Gusty winds will make it feel like we are in the 20s. Some morning flakes will pull away, but a late day system may bring a small rain or snow shower in here.

Here’s regional radar to help you out:

Our next system arrives Thursday night and Friday and is a chilly, light shower maker:

That’s a nice shot of cold coming in behind that for Friday night and Saturday.

That brings us to early next week and a setup that’s getting more and more interesting. The models are now really keying on a severe arctic air outbreak heading into the United States. If the models are correct, you will start hearing the term Polar Vortex being thrown around. Here’s why:

That’s some major blocking forcing that lobe of the PV to drop into southern Canada and the northern part of the country. Record early season cold could be noted across parts of the country if that verifies.

Around here, the introduction to this comes in the form of a cold front with plenty of heavy rain on Monday. That front may slow down with waves of low pressure along it or, if the PV is really flexing muscle, push through with a true arctic surge with snow behind it.

That’s what the GFS is suggesting:

The EURO isn’t too dissimilar, but is slower with the first front and that allows the arctic air to overspread more east to west. In turn, this  could keep snowmakers traversing the southern edge of this. I’ve got the big view of the Euro to give you the full scene:

Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

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A little slushy snow out there today

Good Monday to one and all. It’s only the 2nd day of December, but we are seeing another little light snow setup across our region. This won’t be much snow, but some slush will likely show up on elevated and grassy surfaces.

Parts of the region remain under a Winter Weather Advisory through early tonight. Here’s a look:

The wet snows will be flying early this morning and that may impact the morning commute in some areas. The accumulations are light with this and are showing up in streaks, meaning not everyone gets in on the action. Pockets of an inch or two will show up, with lots of coatings in between and this goes through Tuesday morning.

As our northwesterly flow kicks in, snow showers and flurries will likely continue through Tuesday morning across central and eastern Kentucky.

Temps are seasonally cold:

Gusty winds make it feel much colder:

A weak system works into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and may offer a glancing blow of rain and snow to northeastern Kentucky. That will keep the below normal temperatures going through the rest of the week. That’s when a reinforcing shot of cold comes our way to start the weekend. That will be introduced by a system shearing out as it works east, bringing some chilly showers for Friday:

We will also keep an eye on the setup for early next week:

Here are your slushy snow tracking toys:

Lexington


Georgetown

Frankfort

Florence

No image available.

Covington area

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Louisville

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E-town

Bowling Green

Paducah

Fort Campbell

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Morehead

Winchester

Maysville

London

Mt. Vernon

Have a happy Monday and take care.

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Now comes some winter weather

Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to deal with some local flooding issues after Saturday’s big rains. Thankfully, that rain is moving away, with some winter weather rolling in later tonight and Monday.

Many areas picked up 2″-4″ of rain on Saturday. Lexington shattered the record for the wettest November 30th on record with nearly 3″ of rain. That was also enough for that to be the second wettest November day in recorded history.

Meteorological fall in Lexington actually ended up around 4″ above normal and just about cracked the top 10 wettest. When you consider we didn’t get a drop of rain in September, that makes it even more amazing and a sign of the extreme weather times we are living in.

With all that rain, flooding was an issue in some areas and a few warnings continue into early today:

Here’s your regional radar to follow the rain out of town:

Winds will continue to be gusty today as colder air sweeps in from the west and northwest. After a break in the action, rain and some snow breaks out this evening. That action should change to wet snow overnight and early Monday as our upper level system drops in. The air with this isn’t exceptionally cold, but it’s cold enough for wet snow to fly and stick. Northwest winds will keep snow showers and flurries going across central and eastern Kentucky through Monday night as Lake Michigan offers some help.

You can see all this play out on the Hi Res NAM:

This isn’t a ton of snow, but widespread coatings to 2″ look possible, with the potential for a little more in the mountains in the southeast. Here’s a rough outline of the First Call For Snowfall:

You will notice I’ve added some headlines on that so you can see the nuance of the forecast. Given this is a wet snow, we should see elevated and grassy areas doing better than anything else. There should be some streaks that do better than others.

I would expect Winter Weather Advisories to go up at some point today:

A quick check of the snow models finds them in decent agreement:

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Short Range Canadian

Canadian

GFS

Gusty winds will add to the show and give a little bit of a plastered look to whatever snow falls. Those same gusty winds will make it feel pretty cold:

Have a great day and take care.

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Heavy rain then a little snow

Good Saturday, everyone. We continue to see rounds of heavy rain pushing across the state and this action continues through tonight. Following this up will be a taste of winter weather coming Sunday night and Monday. That’s when a light snowfall is possible.

Today’s rain will be heavy at times as it comes at us in waves. A general 1″-2″ of rain will be likely through tonight. Locally higher amounts will be possible as a few thunderstorms try to join the party. Here are your radars to get you through the day:

 

Local high water issues will be possible.

Winds will also be gusty and could approach 40mph at times this evening and tonight as our southwest flow kicks in. That will cause our temps to rise into the 50s this evening and stay there into Sunday morning.

The rain ends early Sunday and we should see a few hours of sun before clouds quickly fill back in from the northwest. Rain and snow will then develop by late in the afternoon into the evening as our upper level disturbance drops in here. Wet snow will then fly Sunday night and it could be moderate at times. A northwest wind will then keep snow showers going through Monday across the eastern half of the state. Light accumulations will be likely across the region.

The Hi Res NAM only goes through 7am Monday:

Here’s the Hi Res NAM snow map through 7am Monday:

The NAM actually keeps flakes flying through Monday night:

Here’s the snow map from the NAM:

The Canadian has been pretty rock steady with this for almost a week now:

The GFS continues to see the light snow potential more and more with each run:

The snow will likely be wet, but wind driven as gusts may reach 30mph as it snows.That’s going to make for some pretty cool snow scenes!

Those same winds will make it feel pretty darn cold:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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