A nice start to a much warmer week

Good Monday, everyone. Our work week is off and running with much warmer temperatures. This warmer air will carry us through much of the week, but showers and thunderstorms are going to try to crash our party.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the mid 70s for many areas as skies stay mostly sunny.

Tuesday is similar, but with temps pushing 80 degrees. There’s a slight risk for a shower or storm to go up later in the day. This action is ahead of a weak front dropping in here from the northwest:

This boundary looks to pull up some juice from a southern system and that means showers and storms will be noted from Wednesday through Friday:

It’s interesting to note the GFS Ensembles and European Ensembles are both showing drier than normal conditions around here for the next 2 weeks…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

I will believe that when I see it, but it’s one of the very few times in the past several years we have seen a drier than normal pattern on the models. You will also notice the much above normal rain in Texas and Oklahoma. The wetter those areas get, the more that’s likely to temper any summer heat that can form.

Enjoy your gorgeous Monday and take care.

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Better weather for Easter Sunday

Happy Easter, everyone. It’s a much better weather pattern moving into the region today and that’s going to hang tough through the first half of the new week. This is exactly what the weather doctor ordered after the ugly stuff of the past few days.

Clouds slowly decrease from west to east this morning as sunshine takes over. Highs range from near 60 in the east to the low and mid 60s in central Kentucky. The west is best as temps range from 70-75.

Warmer temps kick in across the entire region for Monday and Tuesday with 80 degree temps showing up:

A weak system moves our way on Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms:

Isolated stuff will be possible Thursday and Friday, but a more pronounced stormy setup will be possible by next weekend:

Temperatures will continue to skew warmer than normal through the rest of April and that likely carries us into May.

Have a Happy Easter Sunday and take care.

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Better weather follows another ugly day

Good Saturday to one and all. The weather since Friday has been just about as ugly as you can get it across our part of the world. After we get through another ugly one today, things turn MUCH better just in time for the Easter Bunny to hop into town.

The core of today’s ugly weather is right on top of central Kentucky and that’s where the heaviest rains will fall and where the coldest temps will be. As I’ve been talking about recently, there’s the chance for a few snowflakes to show up in the heaviest precipitation bands. Here’s regional radar to follow along:

Temperatures will be all over the place today. Areas under the core of the upper low won’t stray too far from 40 degrees. Outside of that, the temps will be several degrees warmer and may even reach the 60s in the west.

Showers move away tonight, leaving us with a much better Easter Sunday. Temps are in the 30s to start the day and will finish from around 60 in the far east, to the middle 70s west:

This leads us into another very warm setup through next week and beyond. A few storms will develop during the week, but the warmer than normal pattern continues to take control. The GFS Ensembles show this going through Kentucky Derby Weekend:

Make it a sensational Saturday and take care.

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Ugly weather starts Easter Weekend

Good Friday, folks. Easter Weekend is here and it’s starting out on a very ugly note and things look to get a little worse by Saturday. That’s the bad news. The good news is what follows for Easter Sunday, and that’s dry and milder air.

Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder are possible out there today as our upper level low spins in. It’s not going to rain all day, but I would make sure to keep the umbrella by my side at all times:

tracking:

Rain will increase quickly this evening as our upper low strengthens over the area. For areas under the core of the upper low, temps may cool enough for a little wet snow to mix in later tonight or Saturday. The NAM has been all over this for a few days now:

It’s going to be interesting to see if some areas can get some wet snow to fall in this setup. Regardless, some good rains will fall as temps stay cold. Highs may not get out of the 40-45 degree range for central and eastern parts of the state on Saturday.

As the upper low moves away, warmer air quickly surges in for Easter Sunday:

Highs for Easter range from the middle 70s west to near 60 in the far east:

Thermometer readings may head close to 80 into early next week as the overall pattern continues to be skewed warmer than normal.

 

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Gusty winds, heavy rain and a few strong storms

Good Thursday, everyone. Our strong storm system is working into the region today, bringing the potential for strong storms, heavy rains and high winds. As this monster of a system slows down, it means some ugly weather will likely be with us into the start of Easter Weekend.

Winds will be very gusty today and may reach 30mph or higher at times. Temps range from the low 70s west to the low 80s east. Isolated showers and storms will be possible today, but many areas stay dry. A line of showers and storms will move into western parts of the state this afternoon, then slowly work across the rest of the state tonight. Some of the storms may be strong or severe.

Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

In addition to the low end severe threat, heavy rains are likely and could cause local high water issues.

A very strong upper low then moves slowly across the region Friday into Saturday. Gusty showers increase on Friday as temps come way down. Winds will also be gusty.

Saturday looks even colder as the core of the upper low is right on top of us. This will likely produce cold rains across areas of central and eastern Kentucky. These lows can sometimes produce enough cold air to actually have some flakes mixing in with the rain. This shows up on the NAM:

The European Model is a little more emphatic with the flake chance:

Flakes or no flakes, Saturday is going to be a pretty ugly day for a lot of people.

The good news is that this system moves away Saturday night and allows warmer air to pull into town for Easter Sunday:

Here are your Thursday tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

 

tracking:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Another stormy setup on the way

Good Wednesday, folks. We’re inching closer and closer to the big Easter weekend and the weather is looking great… For now. A slow-moving storm system looks to change all that later in the week into the start of the weekend.

Your Wednesday weather looks amazing with highs from 75-80 and a mix of sun and clouds. Southwesterly winds are going to crank as a storm system inches closer to Kentucky.

This system arrives late Thursday into early Friday and brings the potential for showers and storms. The best time for storms holds off until the evening and that’s when a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The extent of that severe threat depends on the exact evolution and timing of our cold front from the west. It appears we will have a fair amount of sun into Thursday afternoon, so that may aid in the development of some pretty good storm action.

The GFS and Euro are both indicating this:

GFS

EURO

The upper level low spinning in behind this will be right on top of us Friday into Saturday. That could lead to additional rounds of gusty showers and a few storms:

GFS

EURO

Chilly temps will be noted under that upper low, but milder air moves in quickly as it pulls away. That means we should see much better weather for Easter Sunday as temps could reach 70.

Have a great day and take care.

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Much warmer temps sweep in

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a great looking weather pattern settling in for the next few days, but a stormy setup is set to follow that up before the week is over. This comes from a slow-moving system that may also impact part of the big Easter Weekend.

Let us start with today and move forward. Temps will be much better with afternoon readings ranging from 70-75 under a mostly sunny sky.

Temps on Wednesday will hit the upper 70s to around 80 with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will also be on the increase ahead of our next storm system. That will likely bring a severe weather outbreak just to our west for Wednesday:

Here’s the Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The focus of severe weather then shifts farther east into the bluegrass state for Thursday:

This is one healthy storm system rolling across the region through Thursday night:

Just like this past weekend, winds will also be a big player as that slow-moving system rolls through here. It may also slow down as low pressure works up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. This could mean some ugly weather for Friday and Saturday:

Chilly winds would be possible under that upper low, but it looks like it gets out of town in time for Easter Sunday. As of now, temps should rebound into the upper 60s to low 70s with skies becoming mostly sunny. This warmer weather would carry us into early next week.

Have a great day and take care.

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Better weather starts the week

Good Monday, everybody. Our big weekend high wind and severe weather maker is now well off to the east, allowing better weather to blow in. This nice weather hangs around for a few days before things turn ugly again later in the week. That ugly may even carry us into Easter Weekend.

As always, we begin with today and roll forward. It’s a much cooler day with temps in the 30s to start and low and mid 50s to end. Cloudy skies will slowly give way to a mix of sun and clouds.

Tuesday looks really good as thermometer readings make a run back into the lower 70s for highs:

 

Wednesday will see temps spike into the middle 70s for many as southwester winds really kick in ahead of our next storm. This is likely to be a big severe weather producer from the plains to the Appalachian Mountains from Wednesday through Friday:

The major upper level low pushing this storm will then slowly spin across our region through the Easter Weekend:

That could mean some ugly weather with showers and cool temps, especially on Saturday.

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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A few strong to severe storms possible

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s a stormy day for much of central and eastern Kentucky as a powerful system works across the Ohio Valley. This will bring a few strong to severe storms to our part of the world.

Here are a few thoughts on how things may play out:

  • Showers and storms will be around to start the day and a few could be strong or severe.
  • Heavy rains may cause local high water issues.
  • Skies will try to break for a while and allow temps to spike into the 70s across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • That temp spike should allow for additional strong to severe storms to develop, especially across the eastern half of the state.
  • Much colder air sweeps in behind our front as temps hit the 30s overnight. There’s even an outside shot a few Monday morning flurries in the mountains.
  • After a cool Monday, temps turn warm very quickly ahead of the next storm. That may bring another severe threat later in the week.

Here are all the tracking toys you need for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

 

tracking:

Have a good one and take care.

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Severe threat for Sunday

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s a decent weather day taking shape across the bluegrass state, but severe storms are lurking for later tonight into Sunday. That’s when a potent storm system begins to impact the area.

A mix of sun and clouds will be noted across Kentucky with just a scattered shower or storm going up, especially in the south and southeast. Temps range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.

At the same time, a major severe weather outbreak is unfolding for areas to our southwest. Some of that action gets into the west before the evening is over. Here’s Today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Late tonight and Sunday continues to look like the prime time for severe weather across central and eastern Kentucky. Much of the region is in the elevated risk for severe storms during this time:

Strong to severe storms move into western and central Kentucky later tonight into very early Sunday morning. That line should weaken as it gets into eastern Kentucky.

Additional strong to severe storms will then develop across central Kentucky by late Sunday morning into the afternoon. That may explode as it moves across the rest of the state quickly during the afternoon.

Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. In addition to the severe threat, local flash flooding issues may develop.

The action will diminish quickly as cold air pushes in from northwest to southeast late Sunday. Lows by Monday morning hit the 30s.

Here are your tracking tools for this Saturday:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

 

tracking:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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