Labor Day Weekend Forecast

Good Friday, everyone. Our much anticpiated Labor Day Weekend is upon us and it appears mother nature will try to steal the show. I’m tracking the increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms into the next several days.

Let’s start with what’s going on today and roll forward.

Highs should reach the mid and upper 80s for many areas with hazy and humid skies. That humidity should lead to a few scattered storms developing this late today. One or two of those may impact high school football games.

SPECIAL 2

This doesn’t look like a repeat of last Friday, but it just takes one storm to cause big issues for games. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

 

The threat for storms will increase a bit later in the day Saturday. Much of that looks to come after the Cats season opener at Commonwealth Stadium. Here’s the forecast:

SPECIAL

It might be a good idea to play it safe and pack a poncho if you’re heading out to the game.

Showers and storms will then become widespread Saturday night into Sunday. That’s when some tropical moisture will get into the mix and we will have to watch for locally heavy downpours.

Scattered showers and storms should carry us into Labor Day. I don’t expect it to be a total washout, but it wouldn’t hut to have backup plans for those cookouts.

Have a great Friday and take care.

 

 

 

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Storms for Labor Day weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. Our holiday weekend is just hours from getting underway, and everyone is hoping for nice weather. I wish I had better news for you. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms look to ramp up in the coming days.

A weak front is moving through the state Thursday and this could lead to scattered showers and storms going up. The best chance Thursday looks to be across southern and western parts of the region.

Scattered storms might fire up again Friday afternoon and evening. We will keep a close eye on those storms to see if they affect any high school football games.

Speaking of football, I have no changes to the forecast for the Cats’ season opener Saturday at Commonwealth Stadium:

Kentucky Forecast

 

Better storm chances arrive later in the day as highs reach the mid-80s. Showers and storms look to become much more widespread as we head into Sunday. That’s when a tropical plume of moisture arrives from the southwest:

 

 

Euro 2

Locally heavy rains will be a good bet with these storms as they roll through. That action looks to take us into Labor Day:

Euro 3Have a great day and take care.

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A weak cold front arrives Wednesday

Good Wednesday, folks. After a few calm weather days, our overall pattern is about to get more active. This looks to carry us into the Labor Day weekend. That’s when some rain from the tropics gets involved.

We have a cold front dropping into the state Wednesday, and it’s likely to touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms. That’s especially true for the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms could be strong, with locally heavy rains.

Some leftover showers and storms will hang around Thursday as highs come down a few degrees.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms might fire up again later Friday. The European Model shows the concern for some of the high school football games:

Euro

 

Those look rather scattered at this point, but it’s certainly worth watching.

I have no changes for Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday as the Cats kick off the football season. There’s a chance of isolated showers and storms, with the temperature in the low 80s at kickoff. It continues to appear that heavy rain-producing showers and storms will arrive by Sunday. That’s when a tropical plume of moisture tries to get into the mix from the southwest:

Euro 2Those showers and storms look to hang tough into Labor Day. Here’s hoping it’s not a washout!

Have a great day and take care.

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We can’t shake the storms

Good Tuesday to one and all. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been common across Central and Eastern Kentucky this summer. This trend doesn’t look to change anytime soon. As a matter of fact, the stormy pattern might ramp up a bit over the upcoming holiday weekend.

Let’s start with Tuesday. Highs will range from the mid- to upper 80s with scattered showers and storms possible.

A cold front will arrive late Wednesday and should bring an increase in showers and storms by the end of the day. That front will then stall out and lift back to the north by the end of the week.

That sets the stage for a deep tropical plume of moisture to work our way from the Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. Right now, this doesn’t look to arrive until after Saturday. Still, there’s the chance for a shower or thunderstorm out at Commonwealth Stadium:

Kentucky ForecastHeavy rainfall will be possible from Sunday into Monday as our flow comes right off the Gulf:

Euro 3The end result of that type a flow will be for a heavy rain threat for Sunday and Labor Day.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Looking ahead to Labor Day weekend

Good Monday and welcome to the last week of August. That means Labor Day Weekend is almost upon us, and the forecast always climbs a bit on the importance ladder. The closer we get to the big weekend, the worse the weather news gets.

Showers and thunderstorms might try to spoil the party.  The setup for the weekend has changed and now looks to feature a plentiful supply of rain from the Gulf Of Mexico:

Euro 2

I don’t think this is going to be a washout of a weekend, but boomers might interrupt outdoor activities. One of the bigger outdoor events will be the kickoff to the college football season at Commonwealth Stadium. Here’s a look at the very early forecast for the noon start:

Kentucky Forecast

The threat of scattered showers and storms should carry us into the first few days of September. The air looks rather muggy, with temps probably a few degrees warmer than normal.

In the short term, steamy air and scattered storms will continue to dominate the weather pattern. Highs will hit the upper 80s to near 90, with locally heavy showers and storms. Sound familiar?

Let’s track any storm that goes up Monday:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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More of the same

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weather pattern just keeps sending rounds of showers and storms our way. Each of these rounds has been accompanied by tremendous lightning and torrential rains. Guess what? It looks like more of the same in the days ahead.

Saturday’s action shifted a little farther west to give the eastern half of the state a well deserved break. That shift to the west didn’t spare the Lexington metro. Storms dumped anywhere from 1″-4″ of additional rainfall. Some local flooding problems were reported around the Frankfort area.

The rain train has been a sight to behold. Lexington is approaching 10″ of rain for the month and we only need another 1″ or so to take over the wettest August ever. 1974 holds that distinction with 11.18″.

If you are a fan of breaking records… the forecast continues to suggest we have a shot at doing just that. The storms will continue to come at us in waves today and into early in the new week. Torrential rains and a heck of a light show will continue as the main threats.

Outside of the storms… it’s about as humid as it can possible get around here. Temps by themselves aren’t too bad with mid and upper 80s. Throw in Miami type humidity and it feels like low and mid 90s.

A cold front enters the picture by the middle and end of the week. My hope was for this front to sweep through here and allow for drier air to push in. The current trend in the forecast models shows this front slowing down with low pressure developing along it:

GFS

If that verifies, the threat for showers and thunderstorms would continue into the Labor Day Weekend. I’ll keep you updated as we get closer.

Let’s get back to tracking today’s storms:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Have a good Sunday and take care.

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Additional rounds of storms possible

Good Saturday, everyone. Thunderstorms have been common across the region over the past few weeks and our stormy setup continues. Additional rounds of boomers will develop over the weekend. Just like their predecessors, they may pack a big time heavy rain punch.

Flooding rains fell in several areas on Friday. Prestonsburg seems to have been the hardest hit with widespread flooding reported. Lexington also had high water issues on several streets. That’s to be expected with rain numbers exceeding 3″ in just a few hours. Here’s where the heaviest rain fell in Fayette County:

Lex Rain

Lightning also caused lots of issues and knocked out power to thousands.

The storms out there today and Sunday have the potential to produce more of the same. That certainly doesn’t mean the same areas will get hit, but we will need to watch for more high water issues.

This pattern takes us into early next week before cooler and drier air works in to start the long holiday weekend.

Let’s track today’s action:

Friday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms could affect high school football

Good Friday to one and all. The kickoff to the high school football season is upon us, and it looks more and more likely that storms will be a problem. It’s all part of a pattern that shows no signs of going away.

The boomers will be rolling our way from northwest to southeast across our region. The timing of these storms will make all the difference between a muggy evening for football and one that features storms.

Here’s the 2014 premiere of the Friday Football Forecast:

SPECIAL

Just as we have seen in recent days, any storm that blows up can put down a ton of rain in a short amount of time. That could lead to local high water problems in Central and Eastern Kentucky.

In addition to the heavy rain potential, a few storms could contain high winds and some hail.

These storms look to continue through the weekend and into early next week. That’s when a strong cold front blows in with cooler weather lurking for the end of the week.

Let’s get back to Friday’s weather. Here are your tracking tools:

Friday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Have a great day and take care.

 

 

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More storms on the way

Good Thursday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms have blasted the Bluegrass State over the past several days. This is part of a pattern that will continue to throw big boomers our way.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

- The storms will come at us in waves through the weekend, and each wave will contain torrential rainfall.

- The greatest threat to our region will come from the torrential rains. Flash flooding is likely to be a problem from time to time. When and where will be decided by the storm clusters.

- A few of the storms might contain high winds that can cause local wind damage. Hail is also a possibility.

- This is a very steamy period with high humidity levels and toasty temps.

As usual, the blog is in full tracking mode:

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Make it a great day and take care.

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The rounds of storms return

Good Wednesday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms have returned to central and eastern Kentucky. A few of the boomers could be strong or severe, but all will be able to put down torrential rainfall.

This is a pattern that appears to be locked in place through the upcoming weekend. Outside of the boomers, tropical air will really steam things up. Any day that doesn’t feature a lot of clouds and storms could approach 90 in a few spots.

The models suggest most days will see storms going up. Here’s the European Model to prove that point:

Euro

The heavy rain threat will continue to run high across our region during this time. We will also have to keep a close eye on high winds and hail. That’s the case today and I have the blog all set to track the thunder:

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Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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