Winter weather before the flood threat

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have another massive storm system moving into the bluegrass state, bringing some winter weather and a whole lot of rain. This is the first of two storms set to impact our region through the upcoming weekend.

This first system moves in this evening and goes through Wednesday night. It likely brings another 1″-3″ of rain to the region. A Flood Watch is already out for just about the entire state:

General flooding and river flooding are possible from this system.

As mentioned, this system may start out as some snow or a mix this evening and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some light accumulations for some areas. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed in a few spots:

I’m also focusing on the weekend setup that has the potential to produce more flooding rains and even some severe thunderstorms:

That has a severe weather look for much of this region.

We have GOT to change this pattern up and it looks like that happens in the closing days of the month. Check out the deep trough moving in here as a major block develops near Alaska:

I leave you with all your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

A lot more rain for the week ahead

Good Monday, everyone. This President’s Day features much colder air and a few snowflakes dancing about the sky. This pattern is not going to be the dominant one of the week as rounds of heavy rain return. This will cause the flood risk to increase in the coming days.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs may not get out of the 30s for many, as clouds spit out a few snow showers or flurries.

From here, the pattern turns very active with two big systems targeting a lot of real estate with heavy rains. The greatest potential for flooding this week is from Kentucky southwest into the Tennessee Valley and deep south:

The next system is much stronger with heavy rainfall likely. This may still start out as a wintry mix late Tuesday, before the heavy rain takes over. Here’s how the NAM sees it:

This is the first of two big systems ready to impact the weather through next weekend. The second one will also bring heavy rain with it:

The rainfall numbers from these two systems are alarming:

Significant flooding issues may very well develop over the next week, including along some of our rivers. Please stay alert to the forecast in the coming week.

Make it a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Heavy rain threat over the next week

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another system rolling across the region today, bringing a brief mix and some rain. This kicks off another very busy setup that can lead to additional high water issues.

Today’s stuff may start as a touch of a mix very early today, but showers quickly take over. Heavy rain is possible in the southeast and that may cause a few local high water issues.  As this system works by, colder air filters back in and may bring a few flurries on Monday.

We will have another system moving in here tonight and Sunday, bringing the potential for a light mix to start. Heavy rain is possible in the southeast through the day, then colder air could bring a few flakes in for Monday.

From there, several systems target the region over the next week and change. The next one may begin with a touch of frozen stuff on Tuesday, but it’s another big rain maker. Two more systems then follow that up later in the week into next weekend. Rainfall totals will be way up there and will likely cause additional flooding issues…

New GFS

European

Significant flooding issues are possible over the next week to 10 days.

February continues to mimic last February and that’s not a good thing since it was the wettest February on record and led to significant flooding issues. The end of the last February started to change the pattern back to winter and that took is into a March that featured historic snowfall. Could the same happen this year?

The models are certainly pointing toward a similar pattern flip as February closes and March begins. Watch the cold finally get out of the west and roll east on the European:

The new version of the GFS goes all out with the cold from late month into early March:

Here are your tracking toys for the day…

Make it a good one and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

A little break for our Saturday

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a band of winter weather starting the day across parts of the region. This is mainly impacting the southern half of the state and will be in and out before many of us wake up. From there, it gets better today, before going the other way on Sunday.

Skies become partly sunny today as temps hit the low and middle 40s for many. Let’s soak that up because some ugly moves in tonight and Sunday. This is another weak system, but it will bring a touch of a mix initially later tonight, with rain taking over through the day.

The Euro has some freezing rain early on:

It won’t rain all day Sunday and some may even see the sun from time to time. Temps may reach the 50s in the southeast with colder numbers in the north and west.

Colder air then wraps back in with a few flurries or a light snow shower by early Monday:

The pattern next week is amped up and is going to throw systems at us every few days. As of now, the majority of these systems look to be rain makers and that could wind up causing some serious issues.

Tuesday

Thursday

Next weekend

That could be a lot of rain over that period and could up the ante for more flooding issues.

Here are your tracking tools to start the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

-75/I-64 Southern Split Lexington

Georgetown


I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

London

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

Bowling Green

Paducah

Have a great Saturday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Winter Weather Advisory tonight

Good Friday, everyone. We have a blast of winter rolling into the region later today into tonight. That’s when a mix of snow, rain and freezing rain sweeps across the state. Accumulating snows are a good bet in several areas.

Much of the state is under a Winter Weather Advisory:

mentioned earlier that the trend for the swath of snow could sink south and that has certainly been the case. Areas south of Interstate 64 appear to have the best chance of seeing a swath of light accumulating snows. Here’s the latest call showing that southward adjustment:

That south trend may continue through the day and I will account for that with a Final Call For Snowfall later today. There will be a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the snow. On the southern edge, some freezing rain may come into play for a time.

In the overall scheme of things, this isn’t a big deal, but it will be just enough to cause some travel issues later this evening into early Saturday. Again, the best chance is along and south of 64.

That action moves away very early on Saturday, which turns into a pretty nice day as sun and a few clouds take control.

The next system moves in early Sunday with a few showers that may begin as a bit of a mix with some wraparound light snow or flurries into early Monday:

From there, additional systems show up through next week and appear to be more rain oriented than anything else:

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

Make it a good one and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Some sweet weather before winter changes

Good Thursday and Happy Valentine’s Day. On this big day, we are dealing with a pretty sweet forecast. Mild temps and mainly dry conditions will carry us through the afternoon before changes move in. Those changes could even bring some winter weather back into town.

Let’s begin with Valentine’s Day and roll forward. Temps will be deep into the 50s and may hit 60 in a few areas. This happens on a strong southwesterly wind that can crank to 40mph at times. With the wet ground, a few trees may be knocked down.

Showers arrive Thursday evening and take us into early Friday as a cold front drops in. That boundary stalls near the Kentucky/Tennessee border as low pressure develops and works along it Friday night. That brings rain and snow our way:

GFS

New GFS

Here’s the area I’m highlighting for the best chance to pick up on a light snowfall:

The active pattern will throw another system our way as early as Sunday with additional systems early next week. Those will put our region walking a fine line between snow and rain.

I leave you with your radars to track the evening rain into town:

Enjoy the day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

A little winter weather showing up

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a small break in the active weather pattern, but that’s not going to last long. A return of the busy setup is on the way later this week and that’s going to carry us through next week. But, there’s a twist. Instead of only rain, we have winter weather chances also showing up.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs range from the upper 30s to low 40s with a gusty wind making it feel colder, but things are going to be dry.

Valentine’s Day looks milder as temps hit the 50s with clouds on the increase.

The active pattern returns with a cold front moving in Thursday night. That has showers ahead of it, with colder air coming in behind it. That colder setup forces the storm track farther south, bringing the chance for winter weather our way. To systems can bring winter weather this weekend, with another early next week.

The first arrives later Friday and early Saturday, with the next one Saturday night and Sunday, and the third by Tuesday. The models, as expected, change from run to run on the track of each, but it’s fun to watch:

New GFS

GFS

The European Model has a swath of accumulating snow possible across the northern half of the state with the weekend systems:

Again, don’t take the numbers or track to heart because I assure you it will change over the next few days. I’m only showing this to illustrate how the storm track is focusing farther south, bringing snow chances back our way.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

High water threat continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day of heavy rain rolling across the region, keeping our flood threat going into the afternoon. After this blows through, gusty winds usher in a small taste of winter weather tonight.

A Flood Watch continues in effect for many areas through the afternoon:

Several warnings are also out across the region. This may will help you follow the latest:

Minor to moderate flooding is forecast along many points along the Ohio. Here are just a few areas of concern:

Ohio River at Cincinnati

Ohio River at McAlpine Upper

Ohio River at Owensboro

Ohio River at Shawneetown

You know the drill, if you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, please stay alert to the potential of rising waters.

Winds through early Wednesday will be very gusty and could top 40mph at times, especially in the central and eastern parts of the state.

Much colder air then filters in behind this departing system and that could mean some wraparound light snow for a time Tuesday night.

The setup behind this remains very active, but the pattern continues to trend colder. The late week/weekend setup is turning a little colder:

I leave you with your radars to track today’s rain:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Flood threat increases

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain continue to target the region over the next few days, bringing an increased threat for flooding. This continues to be part of our hyper-active pattern that will soon begin to trend colder and colder.

A Flood Watch continues in effect for much of the state through Tuesday:

This continues to look like a general 1″-3″ rainfall in the east, with 2″-4″ of rain for much of western and central Kentucky:

This is backed up by the late day model runs…

GFS

New version of the GFS

Flooding of creeks, streams and rivers may all be noted during this time.

As that system moves away Tuesday night, much colder air wraps in bringing a brief period of light snow to central and eastern Kentucky.

From there, the pattern remains active, but we will se the storm track come farther south as cold air continues to spread out across the country.

The 2 week snow numbers from the GFS show the snow chances going  much farther south:

The average from the 21 member GFS Ensembles are even farther south:

In the near-term, it’s all about the threat for flooding. I have you all set to track the heavy rains rolling across our region:

Make it a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

A wintry mix before another flood threat

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a bit of a wintry mix moving in today, but it’s the heavy rain behind it that will wind up stealing the show. Several inches of rain may fall through Tuesday, leading to an increased threat for flooding.

Today’s wintry mix will be in the form of freezing rain, rain and a touch of snow. It’s the freezing rain that may put a little icy glaze on area roads. That would be enough to cause travel issues to develop, so keep that in mind if you’re on the roads. Here’s regional radar to track the early day mix:

Rounds of heavy rain kick this afternoon and will continue through Tuesday. Flood Watches are out for many areas during this time:

The entire state is at risk of seeing flooding during this time. I’m becoming more concerned for the potential for fairly widespread flooding problems developing later Monday into Tuesday. I’m upping the rainfall possibilities during this time:

Our creeks, streams and rivers are already running very high, so it’s not going to take much water to cause flooding issues to develop. If you have interests along our rivers, just know there is an increased threat for flooding in the days ahead.

Much colder air comes in behind this system late Tuesday into Tuesday night, leading to the possibility of some wraparound snows:

The next system arrives by the end of the week with another round of heavy rain then the chance for some snow. That unleashes the cold behind it:

 

 

 

 

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

Have a good one and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments