A great week of fall weather

Good Tuesday to one and all. Our weather pattern this week is pretty darn awesome for fall lovers. Crisp mornings and pleasant afternoons will combine with clear skies for a great week of fall weather.

As we enjoy the good stuff right now, changes are brewing for later this weekend into next week. Those changes may take us into a very cold pattern to end October.

Today starts with a kiss of frost and upper 30s for many areas, and ends with sunshine and low 60s. Wednesday’s weather looks an awful lot like what we have out there today.

Temps rebound toward the low 70s later this week into the start of the weekend. This will be ahead of a cold front rolling our way by Sunday and Monday. That front will then likely take us into a VERY cold looking pattern for the last week of October.

Watch the GFS from this Sunday through Halloween:

That’s a very active and cold look to the model. We should see the first system impact our region with showers and storms late this weekend into early next week. That has a nice shot of cold coming in behind it by Tuesday…

That could bring the first flakes of the season to the high elevations along the Appalachian Mountains.

I’ve mentioned how a bigger trough would likely develop later next week and that those kinds of troughs are usually accompanied by a big storm. The GFS:

Now, that is likely too amped up, but you get the idea. It’s that shot of cold that we could get flakes flying into parts of the Ohio Valley.

The model then has another system digging in to end October:

The Canadian Model doesn’t go out as far as the GFS, but it’s singing a similar cold tune for the middle and end of next week:

That’s one heck of a winter looking pattern… In late October.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Patchy frost possible by Tuesday morning

Good Monday, folks. The chilliest air of the young fall season has invaded the bluegrass state to start the week. This air may be cold enough to deliver some patchy frost by Tuesday morning.

I’ll focus on the frost potential and a much  colder look taking shape for the end of the month.

Firs up… The frost potential. With clear skies and highs in the upper 50s today, the stage is set for cold air to spill in overnight. Many areas will drop into the upper 30s, but the Hi Res NAM continues to show much colder readings:

That may be a few degrees too cold, but you get the idea, Tonight is a cold one. A kiss of frost on the pumpkins is possible by Tomorrow morning.

The rest of the week looks amazing with temps in the 60s through Wednesday, then 70-75 from Thursday into the start of the weekend. Things look mainly dry during this time.

A cold front may bring some showers and storms in here by Sunday or Monday, and this sets off a much colder look for the final week of October.

Check out the deep dip in the jet stream being forecast for later next week:

That happens as a ridge goes up the west coast of North America, while blocking develops near Greenland. That pushes cold air into the eastern half of the United States and can sometimes be introduced by a big storm. The GFS has been pointing toward this for a while:

This kind of setup has, at least, a chance to bring some flakes into the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachian mountains. The GFS:

GFS Ensembles:

That’s still a long ways away, so take the flake threat with a grain of salt. Still, similar patterns have been able to produce some pre-Halloween flakes around here. October 2013 comes to mind.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking a strong cold front across Kentucky

Good Sunday to one and all. A strong cold front is crossing the state today, bringing some big changes to the Commonwealth. Gusty rains and a big blast of fall chill highlight the forecast over the next 24 hours.

Today’s showers and storms will be along and ahead of the front, but I’m not expecting a lot of rain. Many areas will likely pick up less than a quarter inch:

Winds are going to crank as the colder air settles in. Gusts of 30-35mph are a good bet through the evening.

Temps start in the upper 60s and low 70s then drop into the 50s by late afternoon. Those numbers continue to drop and could reach the upper 30s by Monday morning:

Highs Monday should generally be in the upper 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. This sets the stage for a cold morning on Tuesday with mid and upper 30s:

Patchy frost is a good possibility, especially in those sheltered valleys. Highs on Tuesday generally range from 60-65.

The weather for the rest of the week continues to look awesome with temps slowly climbing. We should be 70-75 by the end of the week into the start of next weekend. That’s when anther cold front works our way from the northwest, likely kicking off a much colder pattern for the closing week or so of October:

Several of the long range models even suggest some flakes may fly across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains during this time:

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

That’s a long ways out, so let’s wait and see how this pattern progresses over the next few weeks.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A strong cold front on the way

Good Saturday, folks. We have a gorgeous day in the making for much of the Commonwealth, but a big change is ready to blow in for Sunday. That’s when a cold front races through the state with rain and a healthy temp drop.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the mid and upper 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be gusty from the southwest and that may increase the humidity enough to spit out a shower or storm in the south:

The cold front races across the state on Sunday with a line of showers and storms ahead of it:

Winds are going to be VERY gusty and may reach 35mph at times.

Our temps will be fun to watch. Highs come early in the day with many in the 70s. By the late afternoon, temps are crashing through the 50s from west to east. That sets the stage for clearing skies and chilly temps by Monday morning. Lows may drop into the upper 30s and low 40s.

Monday looks very cool with temps staying in the upper 50s for highs. Here’s what the NAM is seeing:

The chill lingers into Tuesday with the potential for mid and upper 30s to begin the day, with low 60s during the afternoon.

We should warm toward the low 70s for the end of next week. That is ahead of another cold front arriving next weekend:

That likely kicks off a colder pattern to close out the month of October:

Have a great day and take care.

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Half and half weekend ahead

Good Friday to one and all. We are rolling into the weekend with much better weather rolling into the region. That good stuff won’t last long because another cold front moves in here on Sunday. That will produce gusty rains and bring a nice blast of chill.

Highs today range from 70-75 for many, but may be warmer in the far southeast. We will still have a few clouds around, but the sun is going to try to win the battle.

Saturday looks windy and warm with highs from 75-80 with a mix of sun and clouds. This is the weekend day to get out and enjoy, because showers and storms quickly race through here on Sunday. This action is ahead of a strong cold front:

Winds look to be very gusty as the front moves through. Temps may start in the 70s, but quickly drop through the 60s and into the 50s:

This sets the stage for a chill in the air and the potential for a kiss of frost on the pumpkins by Tuesday morning. Highs early in the week will range from the upper 50s to low 60s for Monday and Tuesday.

Temps look rather seasonal for much of next week, with a slow warming trend by the end of the week. This will be ahead of another strong cold front arriving by next weekend. This front will likely be the beginning of a cold pattern settling in across much of the eastern half of the country. Watch this deep trough digging in as we head into the last week of October:

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Finally feeling like Fall

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s finally feeling the part of fall across central and eastern Kentucky. Northwesterly winds are giving us typical mid-October temps and the pattern looks to trend even chillier early next week.

Today’s weather will feature a fair amount of clouds going up, and I can’t rule out a few sprinkles or a light shower:

Highs are generally in the low and middle 60s for much of the region.

Friday should see temps spike back into the 70-75 degree range, but some of the short range computer models are suggesting clouds hanging around:

That’s from the Hi-Res NAM, which in turn keeps temps well below my forecast for afternoon highs:

That looks a little too cool for my taste, but we will watch to see if the clouds can linger through the afternoon.

Saturday will see temps rebound deep into the 70s on a gusty southwesterly wind. That’s ahead of a strong cold front set to arrive on Sunday. This front will have a line of showers and storms along and ahead of it. Some of these storms may be strong:

Winds will be very gusty with a big drop in temps Sunday afternoon and evening. The air behind this front is chilly. Check out the highs on Monday:

This will set the stage for the possibility of patchy frost to settle in by Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows may reach the 30s:

Temps stay seasonal for much of next week, with another front moving our way later in the week into the following weekend.

The last 10 days of October could see a significant cold air outbreak into the eastern half of the country.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Cooler air filters in behind a cold front

Good Wednesday, gang. We have a strong cold front crossing the Commonwealth of Kentucky today. This front is bringing more rain to the region, but will also bring some much cooler air to town.

Today’s showers and storms won’t be very widespread, and will be a little more active across the east:

Temps ahead of the front may flirt with 80 in the east, but the numbers quickly drop into the 60s behind the front. For many of us, it may be warmer this morning than it is during the afternoon.

Cooler air then filters in for Thursday with some of the models on the really cool side of things. The NAM keeps clouds and a small shower chance around, and that shows up on the high temp map:

Friday and Saturday will find temps back into the middle and upper 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.

This sets the stage for a strong cold front to arrive on Sunday. That front will bring gusty winds and a line of thunderstorms to the region.

Temperatures behind that front will then drop into the low and middle 60s for highs Monday into Tuesday. Lows may drop to around the 40 degree mark in many locations.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Showers and storms rumble back in

Good Tuesday to one and all. Coming off record setting rains over the weekend, we are tracking more showers and storms back into the region. A few of the storms this afternoon and evening may even be on the strong side.

The action comes from a potent system working out of the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. This will spawn rounds of showers and storms sweeping in from west to east. There is also the potential for a few of the storms to be strong.

The best chance for a severe storm or two is across the western half of the state. In addition to small hail and high winds, these storms may also drop an inch or so of rain on a few spots.

The blog trackers are fired up and ready to track whatever is out there:

Current watches
Current Watches

 

Lingering showers are likely into Wednesday as a cold front crosses the state. The air behind this front is trending cooler as we get closer. Take a look at the big temp drop going on across Kentucky by Wednesday afternoon:

That looks like a typical fall front, with cooler air settling in behind this into Friday. The European and NAM both keep temps in the 60s for highs into central Kentucky:

Given the trend toward cooler behind this front, it may be a sign the tropics are running out of steam and finally giving up on dictating the overall pattern.

Temps do rebound into the 70s for Friday and Saturday, but a stronger front then shows up by Sunday:

That will have showers and storms and very gusty winds with it as it blows through here. You will also notice the system near Florida is now struggling to develop.

Anyway, check out the temp drop as the front moves in:

Have a great day and take care.

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More rain follows Nate

Good Monday, everybody. Tropical Depression Nate pulls away from the state today, leaving behind record setting rains. Just because Nate moves away doesn’t mean we are going to dry things up. Another rain maker is moving in for the next few days.

The tropical rains produced a general 2″-5″ rain for much of the region, with locally higher amounts. Lexington’s rain numbers were impressive. Here’s a breakdown:

  • 3.73″ of rain fell on Sunday
  • That’s the 2nd wettest October day on record
  • The 6th wettest fall day on record
  • The 18th wettest day overall on record

Leftover showers will be noted this morning, with drying skies working in during the afternoon. Track Nate out of town:

The next system quickly moves in later tonight into Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms may be strong, as the action carries us through Wednesday:

That setup can put down another inch of rain in some areas over the next few days:

Again, this is about as active as you will EVER find our weather pattern in October.

Cooler air filters in briefly behind that, but will be nothing like what it could have been. I’ve been warning you that the tropics are dominating the overall pattern and they continue to alter the setup. In prior years of hyper active hurricane seasons that lasted into October, the pattern often flipped very cold once into November.

Something tropical may try to develop in the Caribbean and work into the Gulf of Mexico again. The Canadian has this and has a deep trough diving into the east:

At this point in our mega-hurricane season, nothing would surprise me.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking Nate into Kentucky

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a very busy few days ahead of us as what’s left of Hurricane Nate moves into Kentucky. This will bring very heavy rain across the region through early Monday.

Here are the headlines:

  • Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the region today, well ahead of Nate.
  • The tropical moisture hooking up with a stalled front can produce enough rain to cause local high water issues.
  • Nate arrives in Kentucky overnight and will likely be a Tropical Depression as it moves in.
  • Heavy rainfall will accompany Nate into early Monday.
  • Rainfall totals of 1″-5″ will be likely through Monday. This may be enough to cause some, at least, local flash flood issues.
  • The rain will end by Monday afternoon, but another system brings thunderstorms back in here by Tuesday.

I have you all set to track our very active weather day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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