A very wet pattern underway

Good Saturday to one and all. A cold front is slowing down right on top of the region, bringing much cooler air and rounds of showers with it. This is all part of a bigger setup featuring a lot of rain in the coming days.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. We are seeing a wide range in temps with low and mid 60s north and low and mid 70s south. Gusty showers will be noted from time to time, but it’s NOT going to rain all day. Take a poncho if you’re heading to Kroger Field as showers may increase from the southwest:

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be around Sunday, but it’s not likely to rain all day.

The setup from Monday through Wednesday continues to get more and more of my attention. It’s a potent setup for torrential rains that can cause flooding issues. It’s basically fall verses summer and we are the battle zone. Watch the repeat rain action:

The forecast models continue to be full steam ahead on some big rain numbers showing up through next week.

GFS

Canadian

Those kinds of numbers can cause flooding issues to develop and could make this the wettest September on record for the state.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Storms kick off the weekend

Good Friday, folks. We have a strong cold front heading toward the bluegrass state and this will bring an increase in showers and storms. This kicks off a very active and wet pattern through the middle of next week. The good news in all this? It’s turning MUCH cooler.

Any shower or storm this morning into this afternoon looks scattered. Outside of the storm action, temps are still well into the steamy 80s.

As the front gets closer, a broken line of showers and storms will roll our way this evening and some of those could be on the strong side. This may impact some high school football games.

The Storm Prediction Center has our region in a low-end Severe Storms Threat:

That front then slows down right on top of the region into the weekend, bringing more rounds of rain and much cooler air into the state through Monday:

Heavy rain producing showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday as another powerful front drops in from the northwest:

You will also notice something spinning off the southeast seaboard. I talked about that a few days back.

Two more systems dive into our region late next week into the following weekend. Each will bring more rain, with cold air coming in behind the two:

Temps go MUCH colder than normal during this time, with the potential for  an early season frost.

Before we worry about that, I’m becoming more worried about more high water issues. All of these systems passing through here over the next week will put down a ton of rain. Look at the numbers from the European Model:

I have you all set for some Friday storm tracking:

Make it a great day and take care.

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All eyes on the weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. Summer sizzle continues across central and eastern Kentucky today, but it’s all eyes on the weekend. That’s when showers and storms kick in and try to hang around a while. As a matter of fact, things may get super soggy over the next week, before some serious fall chill arrives.

Let us start with today and roll forward. Temps are steamy with the upper 80s likely, with a heat index a little steamier than that. Isolated showers and storms may also fire back up:

A cold front approaches the region from the northwest late Friday, touching off showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may be strong or locally severe. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

That boundary hangs around through the weekend with waves of showers and a few thunderstorms showing up. While it won’t rain the entire weekend, it’s going to be difficult to pinpoint when those waves roll in and the dry hours between them. One thing is for sure… Temps will be much cooler. Some areas may stay deep into the 60s for highs.

Some serious chill invades the middle of the country early next week and will move in here by the end of the week. That transition is likely to produce a lot of rain across our region. A southwest to northeast flow will setup shop, leading to the potential for way too much rain. Take a look at the model rain numbers through next week:

The European

The GFS

A significant fall cold front moves through later Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a dramatic temperature drop.

Another front sweeps in behind that by Friday and Saturday with even colder air. Highs behind this front may stay in the 50s for a few days with lows that can drop into the 30s:

Have a good one and take care.

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Steamy temps and then the storms return

Good Wednesday to one and all. Steamy temperatures continue to be with us across central and eastern Kentucky. This warm and humid air will soon give way to rounds of storms by the upcoming weekend.

Temps today are generally in the middle 80s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. This same air mass will be around into Thursday. Isolated showers and storms may blow up during the afternoon hours.

A cold front nears the state later Friday with showers and storms on the increase. Those showers and storms can put down some pretty good rains as they roll through.

That front will then slow down on top of the region over the weekend. This may oscillate north and south, with areas north of the front seeing more dry than areas south. Still, rounds of showers and storms are a good bet through early next week.

The models aren’t shy with the rainfall numbers for the next week and change:

I don’t think the weekend is a total wash and we will get MANY dry hours in there, too.

A stronger front will then roll in here by the middle of next week and may bring some pretty good thunderstorms our way:

That will also bring much cooler air in here, with even cooler air likely to follow that by next weekend. As a matter of fact, the closing days of September into early October look cold for this time of year. The average departures from the Ensembles are all over this:

Remember that early season frost potential I was talking about? This pattern could support that.

Yesterday, I posted the CFS maps that were trying to bring a taste of early season winter action into the Ohio Valley. These are really just for fun to look at, but they have been doing a really good job in showing all this wet weather. Now, we have a second seasonal model suggesting some October flake action. Here’s the European Ensembles through October:

That’s interesting and may actually have some merit. Why? The crazy cold in Canada isn’t just going to disappear.

Oh yeah… the same model run keeps us above normal on rains:

Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

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Busy setup rolls on

Good Tuesday, folks. The remnants of Florence are finally pulling away from the region, but the tropical feel is still real. This will hang tough through the week, before our pattern gets busy again by the weekend. That’s when  rounds of showers and storms kick back in across the region.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Temps are in the 80-85 degree range with the threat for a few scattered showers and storms going up. Track away:

Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will reach deep into the 80s and may even hit 90 in the west. High humidity levels will continue to be noted.

A cold front drops into the region later Friday into Saturday and becomes stationary. The end result will be rounds of showers and storms…

Locally heavy rains are a good bet during this time. I will focus more on this over the next few days.

I talked about all that amazing amount of early season snow and cold up in Canada and how that cold is likely to make a run at us to end the month and kick off October.

Check out the deeeeeeeeeeeeeep trough on the European Ensembles:

That thumb ridge in Alaska and western Canada is a thing of beauty and is something snow and cold lovers want to see as we head into the cold weather season.

It’s interesting to see the CFS going cold for October:

I’m not sure I’m ready to buy October being that cold of a month. I do think it gives us an early season frost threat, but I don’t think it’s wall to wall cold.

Oh year, FOR ENTERTAINMENT PUROPSES ONLY… the same run of the CFS had mid month flakes deep into the country:

Going out on a limb here and saying that’s not likely to happen. 😉

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Florence passes across Kentucky

Good Monday to one and all. Tropical Depression Florence is working across the eastern half of the state, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. This system will slowly move away from us later Tuesday, leaving behind another steamy air mass.

Today is rainy and windy across central and eastern Kentucky, and it still looks likely only a local high water threat. Most areas will not see any kind of high water, so that’s awesome!!

Leftover showers will be around on Tuesday with temps back into the 80-85 degree range. Steamy temps then settle back in for Wednesday and Thursday as the numbers climb a few more degrees. Humidity levels continue to run abnormally high… A trend we have seen all year.

A cold front approaches the state by Friday and Saturday and will likely slow down on top of the region this weekend. That likely spells rounds of showers and storms…

There is an amazing build up of early season cold taking place in Canada, with some areas seeing record snowfall for so early in the year. That cold is likely to throw a big jab at us before the month ends.

With this kind of temperature gradient setting up, maybe some fall severe storms?

I mentioned the early season snow in Canada already showing up. Some of that snow may sneak south of the border into the states before September is over. Check out the Ensembles snow forecast for the next two weeks:

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

Let’s see what all that cold air can do for us as we head into fall and winter!

I leave you with the Monday edition of your tracking tools:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Florence arrives in Kentucky

Good Sunday to one and all. What’s left of Florence is slowly rolling into Kentucky today and this system  is actually arriving as a Tropical Depression. Gusty winds and heavy rains will accompany this system through Monday.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • Florence moves from south to north across the eastern half of Kentucky later Sunday into early Monday.
  • Given the relatively fast movement of this system, it shouldn’t be able to come close to rain totals from last weekend.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible across central and eastern Kentucky with locally higher amounts. Some areas of the west may not see very much rain, if any. Here’s a rough outline:

 

  • Given the recent rains, local high water issues may develop across the east.
  • Winds will be fairly gusty as this system moves through. Gusts of 30-40mph will be possible Sunday and Sunday night. A few gusts can top out near 45mph.

I have you all set to track Tropical Depression Florence across the bluegrass state:

cone graphic

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Florence to bring gusty winds and heavy rain

Good Saturday, everyone. What’s left of Florence is slowly working across the Carolinas and will move into our region over the next few days. This will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to much of central and eastern Kentucky.

Florence is a super slow-moving Tropical Storm moving across South Carolina. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Florence could still be a Tropical Depression when it arrives in the bluegrass state.

The Hurricane Models continue to be spot on with the same forecast they’ve had all week long:

The same can be said of the GFS Ensembles:

For those who have been solely relying on the European Model, you should stop. It was awful with Gordon and it’s been awful with Florence. The Euro still things Gordon went to Chicago instead of Lexington.

As I mentioned earlier, the center of what’s left of Florence is likely to work across the state Sunday into early Monday. Winds can be very gusty with this system. It’s also been cool to actually see that center showing up on the Wind Gust Forecast map:

The greatest threat from Florence will come from the heavy rainfall. This is a general look at what I’m expecting:

Locally higher amounts may show up along and east of the center of circulation, and those areas will have the greatest risk for flooding issues.

Ahead of the arrival of Florence, watch for some tropical downpour producing showers and storms to go up this afternoon and evening.

I have you all set to do some tracking:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking the weekend Florence impact

Good Friday, everyone. Hurricane Florence continues to pound much of North Carolina and South Carolina. This storm is slowly-moving through this area, en route toward a late weekend date with the bluegrass state.

Let’s get you off and running with the latest National Hurricane Center Advisory on Florence:

cone graphic

The hurricane models continue to be locked in on taking the remnants of this system into Kentucky:

The GFS Ensembles are also locked on the track on us:

The GFS continues to take the center of circulation right on top of central Kentucky. Check out how Florence moves across Florence, Ky:

Here’s the overall journey of Florence:

Here’s how things look to play out:

  • Scattered storms go up during the afternoon hours over the next few days. Tropical downpours are possible.
  • The remnant low from Florence moves on top of us Sunday through early Monday. That will bring heavy rain into the region, along with gusty winds.
  • A general 1″-3″ of rain is likely across the eastern half of the state, with locally higher amounts. High water issues are possible.
  • Winds may gust to 40mph at times Sunday afternoon into Sunday night across the central and east.

I leave you with your tracking tools for the day:

Have a great day and take care.

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Florence likely to impact our weather

Good Thursday, everyone. The forecast going forward is consumed by what happens with Hurricane Florence. Right now, it’s looking more and more like Florence will have a direct impact on the weather across Kentucky by late this weekend.

Ahead of Florence, we are tracking an increase in moisture and temps across the state. Highs are in the 80-85 degree range from today through Saturday, with scattered showers and storms going up. Here are your radars to track today’s isolated boomers:

This storm has a chance at a double landfall… One south of Wilmington, NC, with the other in South Carolina. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast reflects this possibility:

cone graphic

The various hurricane models are in very good agreement with the forecast track of the storm into the Carolinas and then all the way into Kentucky by early next week:

The various members of the GFS Ensembles share a similar line of thinking:

The latest GFS is very similar to the tracks shown above, bringing rain and wind into Kentucky Sunday and Monday:

That clearly brings the remnant low right on top of the state.

The European Model has corrected itself from last night’s extreme solution that took this system south of Savannah. The model now shows the double landfall scenario. Here’s the North Carolina hit:

Followed by the South Carolina hit…

From there, the Euro takes this system across central and eastern Kentucky:

Some thoughts on how all this may play out:

  • Scattered showers and storms will go up over the next few days, with an increase Friday and Saturday. Tropical downpours will be possible.
  •  The remnants of Florence begin throwing clouds our way by late Saturday into early Sunday.
  • The first rains from this storm should arrive late Sunday and continue through Monday. Showers and storms will be common across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rainfall may cause a few issues.
  • Unlike Gordon, this will likely produce gusty winds across our part of the world.
  • None of this is set in stone. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

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