Tracking possible record lows

Good Tuesday to one and all. This is the weather pattern that just keeps throwing much cooler than normal temperatures our way. This is giving us another big taste of September temps that may lead to record lows over the next few days.

Our day may start with a record low with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. The record low this morning for Lexington is 54 degrees set one year ago. The Kentucky Mesonet site does not show the official temperature for Lexington, but will give us a good idea of the lowest temps of the morning:

This Morning’s lows

Afternoon highs will range from the low to middle 70s in many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds may produce a scattered shower or two:

Current temperatures

The much cooler than normal temperatures look to hang around through the rest of the week. Highs should range from the upper 70s to low 80s with a the chance for showers on the increase. A couple of thunderstorms may join in the mix.

If the models are correct, the cooler than normal temperatures will carry us into early August:

GFS 2 GFS 3Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

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Another blast of September moves in

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off a weekend of severe weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Wind damage and large hail were reported across the region. Lexington was hit by wind gusts as high as 95 mph shortly before noon Sunday. Wow.

The severe-weather threat has now moved well away from our region, and now we focus on the big blast of cool. This will lead to another prolonged stretch of well below-normal temperatures. We could even flirt with record lows in the coming days.

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with the chance of  a few afternoon showers. Highs will range from the mid- to upper 70s in most areas.

Current temperatures

Lows over the next few mornings might drop all the way into the upper 40s and lower 50s. The GFS is certainly going in that direction:

GFS Highs through Wednesday will be in the 70s, and we have a daily threat of a few afternoon and evening showers. This is all courtesy of another massive dip in the jet stream:

GFS 4That setup will leave behind a cutoff low by the coming weekend. This means additional showers and a few thunderstorms develop as highs get only to the upper 70s and low 80s.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tornado watch continues

Good evening. A tornado watch  is out for much of Central and Eastern Kentucky until 2 a.m. Storms will continue to get out on their own and there continues to be enough spin in the atmosphere to create the threat for tornadoes. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible.

Here’s what you need to track the storms:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will be using twitter to send out quick thoughts, warnings and storm reports. Make sure to follow @kentuckyweather.

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Sunday severe weather tracker

Good Sunday, folks. Today is shaping up to be another very active weather day across central and eastern Kentucky. Rounds of strong and severe thunderstorms will rumble through the region into the evening hours.

The setup today looks much more like one you would see in the springtime instead of the middle of Summer. Very warm and humid air is pushing in from the southwest as a strong cold front moves our way from the northwest. These two look to get together to give us an increased threat for severe weather.

The greatest threat appears to be across the eastern half of the state. This is where the atmosphere has some spin with it and that may be enough to spawn a quick tornado or two.

Damaging winds and hail will also be possible with any of the storms that crank up. Torrential rainfall and a lot of lightning will be likely with these storms.

Calmer weather moves in later tonight as the front passes to our east. That will introduce fall-like temperatures that may flirt with record lows in the coming days.

As usual, I have the blog all set to track today’s potential severe weather event.

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I will have updates and warnings coming your way via twitter. Take care.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Good evening. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued for much of western and central Kentucky until 4am EST. This does include the Lexington metro. A line of strong and severe thunderstorms will roll eastward across the state this into the wee hours of the morning.

Damaging winds will be likely with this line. Torrential rainfall may cause local high water issues. I have you all set to follow the storms:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates and warnings coming your way via twitter.

Take care.

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Tracking the severe storms threat

Good Saturday, everyone. Our final weekend of July looks to be a busy one with the increasing threat for strong and severe thunderstorms. This is all ahead of another major push of fall air moving in for next week.

The setup is primed for some big time storms to develop between hot and humid air and potential record breaking cold. The first round looks to form to our northwest this  afternoon and come rolling in this evening into later tonight.

That may end up being a full blown complex of damaging wind producing storms that would also bring a local flash flood threat with them. These storms will then roll toward the southeast across central and eastern Kentucky into Sunday morning.

We find this cluster of storms exiting the region early in the day with the powerhouse cold front charging in from the northwest. That could ignite additional severe thunderstorms through Sunday evening.

Your storm tracking tools…

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Weekend storms bring the cool

Good Friday, folks. We’re rolling into the weekend on a pleasant weather note, with another cooler-than-normal day in the Bluegrass State. This nice air will be replaced by some steam for the weekend. That will come with rounds of thunderstorms that will blow in ahead of a big fall blast for next week.

Our Friday starts with temps in the 50s and some fog in most areas. Afternoon highs will hit the low 80s in most areas under mainly sunny skies.

Friday morning’s lows

Current temperatures

Saturday will find a big increase in humidity coming in from the southwest. Highs will surge close to the 90-degree mark in many areas:

GFS 3

That heat and humidity will aid in the development of a complex of strong or severe storms that might dive in Saturday night or Sunday. The NAM shows this very well:

NAM

Those storms are ahead of another huge dip in the jet stream that will lead to even cooler air early next week. Highs will range from the low to mid-70s from Monday through Wednesday. Lows might be close to records:GFS 4July temperatures are already well below normal, and the temps for the final few days of the month will only add to that temperature deficit.

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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A preview of things to come

Good Thursday to one and all. We have a refreshing brand of air blowing into town that will keep our temps well below normal. Think of it as a preview of what moves in next week. That’s when we get another big blast of late-September temps.

A cold front continues to slide to our south early Thursday and will take the showers and thunderstorms with it. Lower humidity and pleasant weather will rule the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s.

Current temperatures

Lows by Friday morning will drop into the middle 50s under mainly clear skies. Highs will hit the low 80s by the afternoon under mainly sunny skies. Readings will surge on Saturday, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s and the threat of scattered storms increasing by the end of the day.

Showers and storms will really increase by Sunday as we track a major blast of cool air into the region. Check out this setup from the European Model:

Euro That’s a heck of a setup for this time of year and is similar to the one we had last winter. The result will be an extended run of temperatures well below normal. Highs will be in the 70s, with lows in the upper 40s and low 50s:

GFS 4

Record lows will be possible next week.

Enjoy Thursday’s nice weather and take care.

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Storms usher in much cooler air

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will crank up as a powerful cold front moves in from the northwest. This front will introduce another pattern of temperatures well below normal that carries us into early August.

Showers and storms will increase from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some of them could be strong, with torrential rainfall.

The cool air coming in behind this front will take center stage by Thursday, with highs in the upper 70s and drying skies. Lows in the 50s will be with us early Friday, with afternoon highs hitting the upper 70s and low 80s.

Storms will increase again over the weekend, as our next cold front approaches from the northwest. This could give us some pretty good rains into Monday as an even cooler air mass sweeps in. The European Model is spitting out some impressive rain totals through early next week:

Euro

Check out the massive dip in the jet stream by Tuesday:

GFS 5  That sends temperatures well below normal next week:

GFS 2

Highs in the 70s and lows in the low and mid-50s might be common for several days next week.

Let’s get to tracking Wednesday’s storms:

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking two more cool blasts

Good Tuesday, everyone. Steamy temps have moved back into the Bluegrass State, but the fall pattern isn’t going away. Much cooler air will work into the region for the end of the week, and I’m tracking a bigger push of cool air for next week.

Throw in several rain chances, and we get the best of both worlds.

Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the entire state. Isolated showers and storms will be possible with the increase in humidity.

Current temperatures

Wednesday will find a very strong cold front swinging our way from the northwest. This will touch off widespread showers and storms late in the day:

GFS 5

Locally heavy rains are a good bet with this system. The models are showing the potential for an inch or more of rain for some areas through early Thursday:

GFS RainTemps behind this front will be well below normal on Thursday:

GFS Highs Thursday should range from the mid- to upper 70s, with some afternoon drying. Low in the mid-50s will be possible by Friday morning, with afternoon highs around 80.

Showers and storms will increase later this weekend as our next massive push of cool air arrives:

GFS 3

Next week has the chance to be as cool as the setup we had just a few days ago.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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