Fall settles in for a while

Good Wednesday, everyone . Our fall cold front is now off to the southeast, leaving behind a pattern that looks a lot like early October. Much lower-than-normal temps are settling in for the long haul.

Leftover showers and storms are working out of the southeast early Wednesday, as our cold front slides east:

Temperatures are generally in the upper 70s for much of the region, but that north wind will continue to blow cooler air into town in the coming days. Much of the country goes well below normal:

Highs by Friday are in the low 70s on the latest NAM:

We stay in the 70s through the weekend. Wow.

Lows are deep into the 50s, with some upper 40s showing up on any given night.

As this is happening, we watch the tropics spring to life. Harvey will be down in the Gulf of Mexico and another system is trying to pop across the southeast:

The models suggest a hurricane threat to Texas and Louisiana in the coming days. Can that system impact the weather around here? That’s a possibility.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Severe storms possible today

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a potent cold front sweeping across the bluegrass state, and this will bring the potential for severe weather. This is being pushed by another taste of September temps for the rest of the week.

Today’s storms come at us in the form of a squall line later this afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat we’re facing, but some large hail can’t be ruled out. These storms will also be torrential rain makers, but should move fast enough to preclude any true flood threat.

Here are the tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

A leftover shower or storm will be noted early Wednesday, but skies slowly clean up in the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 70s. Temps look to stay generally in the 70s for through the weekend with lows in the 50s.

This should be another gorgeous night for high school football action across the region.

From there, we watch the tropics and the potential for a couple of systems to develop. The one in the Gulf looks the most threatening on the models:

As you can see, some models have that system bringing rain to our region, but that’s a long way from being a certainty.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the eclipse day weather

Good Monday, everyone. We have made it to the a once in a lifetime day here in the bluegrass state. Our total solar eclipse is upon us and everyone is hoping the skies stay clear during the monumental event.

While I don’t expect full overcast, we are going to fight though some scattered clouds at times. Some of these clouds may even spawn an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

I have the blog all set to track the weather conditions on this awesome day:

Enjoy…

GOES Eastern U.S. Visible Image

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-75 at MP 36
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

Looking ahead to tomorrow, there’s the threat for strong to severe storms working across the region as a cold front moves in. The Storm Prediction Center has our region in the risk area…

Have a great day and take care.

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A busy week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a busy week ahead of us and the weather is going to be busy, too. I’m watching the eclipse day weather and a big blast of fall air on the way for the middle and end of the week.

Highs today are toasty in the mid and upper 80s. Similar temps will be noted on eclipse day Monday, but what about a few clouds crashing the party? It’s a possibility, but things do not look fully overcast. Here are the computer model cloud forecasts:

Showers and storms increase Tuesday into Wednesday as a fall cold front moves in from the northwest:

Temps on Wednesday drop into the upper 70s for highs and we likely stay there for several days in a row. The average 5 day temperature anomalies in Celsius from the GFS Ensembles:

It looks like summer is going out on a very familiar trend… Cooler than normal.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking some big changes down the road

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. Scattered storms are kicking off the weekend weather, but I’m watching some bigger changes coming for next week.  It’s a setup that will bring another big blast of fall temps into town.

In the short term, we have highs in the low 80s with a scattering of showers and storms about the region. Here are your radars to track the action:

Sunday’s weather looks mainly dry, with highs in the 80s. Can we keep the skies clear for our big solar eclipse day on Monday? The models continue to show a few clouds across the region:

 

Hopefully, the clouds are few and far between. Highs will be in the mid- and upper 80s, but the numbers will drop by more than 10 degrees as the eclipse is underway.

Showers and storms increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a strong cold front drops in from the northwest:

The air coming in behind this looks a lot like the stuff we had for the first half of August. We might string together several days with highs in the 70s.

The GFS ensembles keep the cooler-than-normal pattern going through Labor Day weekend:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Better weather starts the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have a cold front pressing across the state, bringing a much better brand of air into town to start the weekend. What about the rest of the weekend and into the big solar eclipse day?

Let me begin with Friday. Highs will range from 80 to 85, with some early-morning showers and storms hanging around the east:

Humidity will decrease in the afternoon as skies become mostly sunny. This will make for perfect weather to kick off the high school football season. Here’s the forecast for Friday evening:

The weekend will only bring a small storm chance later Saturday and Saturday evening. Highs will range from 80 to 85, with lows in the 60s.

Monday’s weather forecast continues to include the possibility of a few clouds. With the solar eclipse happening in the afternoon, we can get by with a few clouds, but anything widespread will be bad news. Here’s the latest GFS cloud forecast:

Showers and storms will then increase Tuesday and Wednesday as our jet stream gets ready to take a big dip into the eastern half of the country. That allows for a much cooler-than-normal pattern to return:

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Tracking strong storms

Good Thursday to one and all. We have a potent cold front blowing into the region, bringing the chance of strong storms and heavy rains. This will unleash a more comfortable brand of air for the weekend, but we can’t shake the shower and storm threat.

Let’s talk about Thursday’s front then move forward.

Scattered showers and storms are possible in the morning, with a line of strong storms developing in afternoon and evening. This line could contain high winds and hail as it sweeps from west to east.

In addition to the strong storm threat, these boomers are loaded with moisture and could produce torrential rain. This could lead to local high-water problems at some point.

Here are your storm-tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Leftover showers and storms will be around into early Friday, but things get much better during the afternoon and evening. Lower humidity quickly sweeps in, setting the stage for a very nice opening to the high school football season in Kentucky.

Another system dives in by Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing a few showers and storms:

Looking ahead toward eclipse day, we continue to see the models spitting out the chance for some clouds and isolated showers and storms. Here’s the cloud forecast from the GFS:

We will have a few days to nail down the forecast for specific locations.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Showers and storms on the increase

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s back-to-school day for Lexington and several surrounding school districts. It’s been a summer full of storms, and that trend shows no signs of letting up in the coming days.

Your back-to-school forecast includes an increasing threat of showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. Locally heavy downpours are a possibility for central and western parts of the state:

A cold front blows into town Thursday, with additional rounds of showers and storms. A few of the storms could be strong, and the SPC has us at a very low risk for a severe storm or two:

Showers and storms will linger into Friday but should decrease as we get into the afternoon and evening. As of now, it looks as if our high school football season kicks off with mainly dry weather. Any slowdown of that front would change that.

Cooler air moves in this weekend, but additional showers and storms are possible later Saturday. That comes from a system diving in from the northwest:

The big solar eclipse weather picture is still a bit muddled with some model runs showing clear skies and others showing some clouds and rain chances. The new GFS is in the scattered shower and storm threat:

Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Scattered showers and storms continue

Good Tuesday to one and all. After wet weather Monday, more in the way of scattered showers and storms continue to push across our region. This stuff might increase later in the week, as another cold front slides in from the northwest.

Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s, but the humidity will make it feel  pretty soupy. This will also help crank out scattered showers and storms, and I have you all set to do some Tuesday tracking:

The first day of school for Fayette County and several surrounding districts is Wednesday. It’s looking like scattered showers and storms try to crash the day, especially for the ride back home:

A cold front moves in for Thursday and early Friday, with an increase in showers and storms. Locally heavy rains will be a threat during this time.

I’m hopeful that action moves away by the time we kick off high school football on Friday evening. But it might be a close call.

Another system then drops in over the weekend with more in the way of scattered stuff, but temps do take a bit of a tumble.

The current computer models are a bit better in terms of the clouds and rain chance for the Solar Eclipse on Monday:

Here’s hoping that trend continues, but we still have a few more days to go before we have a solid handle on the exact conditions at go time.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms are back in the Bluegrass

Good Monday to one and all. It’s back to school week for many kiddos across Central and Eastern Kentucky, and everyone is hoping for good weather. Unfortunately, scattered storms are back in the Bluegrass State. Shocked? Didn’t think so.

Scattered is the name of the weather game out there Monday, with a lot of the action just floating about the region. Nothing appears to be too widespread, but some locally heavy downpours are possible in some areas.

Here are your Monday radars:

Tuesday will find isolated storms hanging tough, with highs in the 80- to 85-degree range for many of us.

Back-to-school Wednesday for Fayette County and other school districts looks to feature another round or two of storms in the region:

That action looks to ramp up Thursday and continue into, at least, early Friday:

As of now, a lot of the showers and storms might be just to our east by the time we kick off the high school football season Friday.

From there, our attention turns toward the big solar eclipse day on Monday. With systems diving in from the northwest, it’s all about timing. Will one of these systems crash our eclipse-viewing parties with clouds and rain? The GFS says… Yes:

Again, that’s a week away, so don’t get caught up on any one forecast model. I will keep update the eclipse weather forecast through the week.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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