Spring takes a break

Good Tuesday, everyone. If you’re a fan of true spring temperatures, you are going to hate the pattern we’re going into. It will feature several chilly shots of air, and it’s likely to throw some nasty weather our way. Yippee!

We will have some sun out there Tuesday, but temps will run on the chilly side. Highs will reach the upper 50s and low 60s. We will also have to watch for isolated showers and storms.

A fast-moving system scoots through here Tuesday night and Wednesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Check out the simulated radar from the NAM:

NAM

Small hail will be possible with any shower or storm.

Temps will continue to run much colder than normal, with highs in some areas staying in the 50s. Lows for Thursday and Friday will drop close to the freezing mark. Frost is a real possibility, and there is an outside chance of a light freeze.

Another system moves our way late Friday into Saturday, with a cold rain likely:

GFSThat looks a lot like a winter setup, and that’s exactly what it is. It’s just happening late in April instead of January. If clouds and rain hang around all day Saturday, it’s possible for highs in some spots to stay in the high 40s.

Clearing skies by Sunday morning would set the stage for another frost or freeze threat:

GFS 2The winter looking pattern continues into early next week, with the models forecasting another system working to our south.

Have a great day and take care.

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A strong cold front blasts through

Good Monday, everyone. We have a powerhouse of a cold front sweeping across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Showers and storms continue to rumble ahead of the front as chilly air charges in behind it.

Locally heavy rains will accompany the action we will see Monday. Winds will gust as temps take a big tumble behind the front late in the afternoon and evening.

Chilly air moves in Tuesday, with highs getting only to about 60 degrees. A gusty wind will make it feel cooler than that.

A secondary push of cold air moves in Wednesday and it might be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could produce small hail as they sweep through. Here’s the simulated NAM radar:

NAM 2

The air behind that could set the stage for frost and freezing conditions for later in the week. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. Beware!

Another rainmaker tries to sweep back in late Friday into Saturday. That could keep afternoon highs on the very chilly side of the thermometer:

Euro 2

Let’s get back to tracking Monday’s cold front across the state:

 

 

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Storms and heavy rain return

Good Sunday to one and all. It’s another in a long line of stormy days taking shape across central and eastern Kentucky. Rounds of boomers will be crossing our region through Monday. Each round will have the potential to create some additional high water issues for some.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– Waves of storms come at us from the south and southwest this morning into the afternoon. A few could be on the strong side, but all will contain heavy rain.

– The heavy amounts of rain could lead to some local high water issues.

– If we break out into some sunshine this afternoon, our severe weather threat will increase. High winds and hail would be the primary threats from the storms that go up.

– Additional rounds of showers and storms will then move through on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps eastward.

– Rainfall totals through Monday should average 1″-2″ for many areas. Higher amounts will be possible for those getting in on stronger storms.

– Chilly air then pushes in from Tuesday through the rest of the week. Any night that has clear skies could turn frosty.

In the short term, it’s all about heavy rain and storms. Let’s do a little Sunday storm tracking:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Storms move in for Sunday

Good Saturday, folks. Our weekend is off and running on a fantastic weather note across central and eastern Kentucky. This nice weather won’t last very long as rounds of showers and storms return for your Sunday.

That could set the stage for some strong storms and heavy rains. More on that in a bit… Let’s focus on the nice stuff we have out there today.

Highs will reach the mid and upper 70s in many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be a little gusty, but nothing we can’t handle. There is the smallest chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm.

Low pressure across the plains will slowly work our way tonight into Sunday. That system will likely produce rounds of showers and storms from early Sunday into Monday.

It looks like the first round comes in here tomorrow morning from the southwest. Strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible with the first round. If we can get some sunshine after that moves through… Watch out. Severe weather would be possible later in the day and into Sunday evening.

The latest NAM is showing that scenario:

NAMDamaging winds and hail would be the primary threats from any storm that goes up. Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ would also be possible and that could be enough to cause some additional high water issues.

Thankfully, drier and cooler air works in late Monday and takes up residence into the middle of next week.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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A warm start to the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our weekend is about to start out with much better weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. That will be accompanied by much warmer air. That’s the good part of the forecast. The bad? Showers and storms blowing back in by Sunday.

Here’s a breakdown:

– Isolated showers and storms are possible Friday as highs climb into the mid- and upper 70s. Winds will be very gusty.

– Saturday looks even better, with sunny skies and highs reaching the upper 70s in some areas.

-Clouds will increase as some scattered showers and storms return Saturday night and Sunday:

GFS

– There is the potential for strong or severe storms on Sunday, and that’s something we have to keep a close eye on.

– Those same storms might drop another inch or two of rain that can lead to additional high-water problems.

– A strong cold front then blasts through on Monday, putting an end to the showers and storms. Much cooler air comes in behind that, and we could even see some patchy frost by the middle of the week.

– Another stormy and wet pattern then tries to develop late next week through the following weekend.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Tracking scattered showers and storms

Good Thursday, everyone. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms pushing back across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This continues to be part of an overall pattern that is highly skewed toward the soggy side.

This setup should continue into the weekend, but I am seeing a window of opportunity for some dry and warm weather.

That window does not include much of Thursday. The rain should be scattered, with locally heavy downpours. That might be just enough to cause some local high-water problems. Track away:

 

Friday looks like a decent weather day, with only a slight chance of a shower or storm. Gusty southwesterly winds should boost highs well into the 70s, and that trend carries into Saturday.

Late-day showers and storms will become likely and should stick around into Sunday: Euro 2Many areas might pick up another inch or two of rain between now and Sunday night. Watch the already swollen creeks and streams during this time.

Dry and cool weather might roll in =early next week, but the overall setup could turn soggy again by late next week. The two-week rain forecast from the GFS shows a lot of rain across our region:

GFS Rain

 

Have a great day and take care.

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History-making rains continue

Good Wednesday to one and all. Record rains have pounded the Bluegrass State for the past several weeks, and I have more in the forecast. The current April rainfall numbers for Lexington are insane.

Take a look:

April Record Rain

Those are some sobering numbers, and we have the second half of the month to go.

Scattered showers will be possible out there Wednesday, with the greatest concentration in the south and east. Follow along:

 

 

An increased chance of showers and storms will crank up Thursday as warmer air fights back in. That could cause some locally heavy rains.

Friday might be the best day of the week, with highs in the 70s and a smaller threat of some storms.

Our weekend will find the return of showers and storms. It might come at us in waves, with Saturday providing the first batch:

Euro

A big dip in the jet stream would follow that Sunday and Monday. Additional rounds of showers and storms would be possible:

Euro 2Much cooler-than-normal air will then come in later this weekend and next week. That’s a trend that might carry us through the rest of April.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Tracking the flood potential

Good Tuesday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are rolling across the region, bringing the renewed threat of local high-water problems to parts of Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Much of Central and Eastern Kentucky remain under a flood watch through the day. The heaviest rain should continue along and south of Interstate 64. That’s along and north of the track of a low pressure swinging across the Tennessee Valley.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in some spots. That would be enough to create high-water problems.

The showers will decrease during the afternoon as cooler air pushes in. Highs Tuesday will struggle to get to 60 degrees in some areas.

Scattered showers will be around into Wednesday with highs again struggling to get out of the upper 50s.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be with us for the end of the week and into the weekend. Heavy rains could become a problem once again.

Let’s take them one at a time and track what we have out there Tuesday:

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the return of showers and storms

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off of one amazing spring weekend in the Bluegrass State. Sunshine and temps bordering on late-May readings made for “as good as it gets” weather.

That part of the forecast is now behind us, and it’s time to focus on the return of showers and storms. We’ve set up this return well in recent days, so it shouldn’t come as a shock to our regular readers.

Let’s break it all down:

– Highs Monday will rise toward 70 degrees under increasing clouds.

– Showers and storms should hold off until later in the day and then ramp it up a notch Monday evening.

– Locally heavy rains are likely to fall during this time. The forecast models are spitting out 1 to 2 inches for areas along and south of Interstate 64. If that’s the case, some local high water problems will be possible.

– Scattered showers and storms would be possible at any time through Friday. The scattered nature means temps will be tough to forecast. Areas that have rain on any given day will see highs struggle into the low and mid 60s. Temps could hit 70 or higher if you dodge the raindrops.

As usual, I have you all set to track the next round of rain back into our part of the world. Track away:

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Storms return for the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have one of those “wow” days in progress across central and eastern Kentucky. The gorgeous spring colors are exploding as sunshine and temps in the 70s combine for a dose of perfection.

The perfect weather does not have a very long life span. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms move back into our weather picture as early as Monday. This action will be with us on and off all week. Are you really surprised? I didn’t think so.

Highs today top out in the low and middle 70s with a partly sunny sky.

The threat for showers and storms will then increase as we roll into Monday. There’s a nice little supply of juice from the Gulf of Mexico and that leads to showers and storms. The simulated Radar from the NAM is the most robust of the bunch with the action:

NAM

The chance for scattered showers and storms will then continue through the week. That doesn’t mean it will rain each and every day, but the chance will be there. The risk for storms has a lot to do with a strong upper level system moving in from the plains states:

GFS 2

That setup could lead to some stronger storms by the end of the week. Outside of any storm action, temps for much of the week ahead should run on the warm side.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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