A few flakes before nice travel weather

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s a much colder day across our region and it may even spit out a snowflake or two. From here, the weather looks fantastic for holiday travelers Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. After we get through all that, the pattern gets active and turns wintry.

Let’s begin with today and a northwesterly wind. That wind will keep temps in the upper 30s to around 40 for high and should spit out a rain or snow shower. Here are your radars to track the action:

The weather behind that looks really good for Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Seasonally chilly temps will be noted, but your sky is dry.

Rain moves in late Black Friday and takes us into the first part of Saturday. Locally heavy downpours will be possible.

Another storm system quickly moves in late Sunday into Monday. This has the chance to bring rain and/or snow into our region:

The setup next week into early December features a lot of blocking over the top and could mean a lot of cold and winter storm potential. This pattern has a lot of potential:

The GFS Ensembles have a fairly snowy look through next week:

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Thanksgiving week weather outlook

Good Monday, folks. Thanksgiving week is off and running on a damp and dreary note as a cold front sweeps in. The rest of the week features some flakes, nice travel weather and another system by the weekend.

Let us begin with our Monday then roll forward. Rainy skies are out there today as temps stay in the 40s for highs. Here are your radars to track the action:

Colder northwest winds then kick in behind this for Tuesday. Northwesterly winds in the wintertime tend to produce clouds and light precipitation across our region. That light precipitation may very well be in the form of flurries and light snow showers.

The models are even trying to spit out a rooftop coating in a few spots:

Hi Res NAM

GFS

Highs on Tuesday stay in the 30s, but a wind chill may stay in the 20s for many.

Wednesday looks good for travelers as temps bounce back into the upper 40s to low 50s. A big blast of arctic air heads toward the northeastern part of the country late Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. This will make for an absolutely frigid Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in NYC. For us, we get a glancing blow of the cold.

Highs on Thanksgiving Day may struggle to 40 in the northeastern Ky to the 50s west:

Temps look cold for Black Friday shoppers hitting the stores late on Thanksgiving evening. Readings may be in the upper 20s and low 30s by this time:

Clouds will quickly increase on Friday as rain rolls in late in the day. That’s from a storm system moving in, bringing another soaker into Saturday:

The nest system coming behind that later Monday and Tuesday is likely to unleash more winter weather behind it:

It’s a loaded winter pattern for the end of November into December. Buckle up, kiddos.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A cold front moves in tonight

Good Sunday, folks. All things considered, this is a pretty nice weekend we’re wrapping up across central and eastern Kentucky. A cold front moves in later tonight and early Monday, but looks to hold off long enough to give us a mainly dry day.

Clouds will increase today as temps stay very nice with most in the 50s. A late day shower will be noted in the north and west, with an increase in rain Tonight and Monday. That’s when our weak front passes through here with seasonal brand of cold behind it.

A northwesterly flow on Tuesday may spit out a few showers, with even a flake possibly showing up:

As mentioned, Wednesday and Thanksgiving look pretty darn nice with a seasonal chill in the air and dry conditions.

By the time we roll into Black Friday and into Saturday, a quick hitting storm system is likely to throw rain our way. That will be followed by another system coming in behind it that can unleash much more of a winter look:

If you’re a regular reader, you know I’ve been pointing toward the last week of November into early December for winter to make a big return. As blocking goes up in the areas we look for to produce winter weather, the same active pattern from the year shows no signs of letting up. Watch the potent storm systems crossing the country:

That’s a look that can produce another early season winter storm or two around these parts.

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Tracking a late weekend cold front

Good Saturday to one and all. Our weekend is off and running on a seasonally chilly note, but a cold front is ready to crash back in later Sunday. That will lead us into a pattern that looks fairly calm in the run up to Thanksgiving. Beyond that, winter looks to crash back in.

Let us begin with our Saturday outlook. Temps this morning are in the upper 20s to low 30s for many with clouds on the increase for the north. Those clouds linger into the afternoon, keeping temps in the low and mid 40s this afternoon. Farther south, readings rise into the 50s.

Clouds increase on Sunday with some late day showers developing. Those showers are along and ahead of a cold front pressing in from the northwest. Showers look to increase Sunday night into early Monday:

Chillier air then settles in behind that through Tuesday, but your travel weather looks to be in pretty good shape in the lead up to Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving Day continues to look dry, but a storm system may not be too far behind that into Black Friday:

Next weekend may wind up trending colder as we get closer, so that’s something for us to keep a close eye on. This will kick off a VERY cold and wintry looking pattern for the final week of November. The European Ensembles get this started late next weekend:

Watch how that trough deepens on top of us into the following week:

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.

Have a sensational Saturday and take care.

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Getting better to start the weekend

Good Friday, folks. The past week has been about as wintry as you will ever find it for the middle of November. 6 of the past 7 days featured frozen precipitation falling on the city of Lexington, with the first snowfall and a significant ice event. While things are calmer this weekend, I still have my eye on a couple of fronts before we get to Thanksgiving Day.

Our Friday begins with slick spots on area roads as temps are in the mid and upper 20s. Any leftover flurry moves away as partly sunny skies return. Highs range from the 30s in the north with 40s in the south.

Saturday is a breezy day with some clouds filtering in. Afternoon temps are in the 40s for many, but a few 50s show up in the south.

Sunday is a windy day as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. This may bring a few showers by the end of the day. with a rain or snow shower Sunday night:

Colder air comes in behind that front for Monday and the flow has some sneaky cold it for the run up to Thanksgiving. Temps won’t be as cold as what we have been seeing, but that doesn’t mean they still won’t be below normal:

That current call is for mainly dry weather into Thanksgiving Day, but the setup makes me a littler nervous into the rest of the weekend. Temps will turn milder, but rain may become a player before all is said and done.

The milder few days won’t last long as the pattern is already screaming “look out below”! The signal for final week of November is for some serious blocking to go up, allowing for another cold and wintry period to begin…

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Another messy winter weather day

Good Thursday, everyone. A rare mid-November winter storm continues to blast the bluegrass state. This brought significant icing issues to the region overnight and now will bring rain to snow today.

Our day starts with the transition from freezing rain to rain from south to north. As quickly as that happens, colder air races in from the west with a quick transition to snow this afternoon and evening.

Watch how quickly all this takes place:

It will be interesting to see what happens with the early morning snow along and west of Interstate 65. There is some indication of a quick burst of decent snow for some areas.

In terms of afternoon and evening snows, some areas may pick up more than 1″ of the slushy accumulations. The NAM fam is picking up on it:

The snow will finally taper off later tonight, but slick travel may develop with temps hitting the upper 20s by Friday morning.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

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Covington

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Louisville

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E-town

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I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter weather rolls back in

Good Wednesday, folks. A winter storm is taking aim at the bluegrass state from later today through Thursday night. A nasty mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are all possible.

That action moves in from south to north later this afternoon into the evening and may cause issues overnight. Here’s a look at the current winter weather alerts for you region:

Let’s break down this complicated forecast:

  • The snow in western Kentucky will be fairly heavy at times. Accumulations of 2″-6″ are possible. Heavier totals will likely be just north of the river.
  • The freezing rain and mix area will experience a little bit of everything from this evening into the wee hours of Thursday morning. By daybreak, temps should be above freezing with mostly rain falling. That rain continues to fall into the daytime hours before switching to light snow from west to east by late afternoon and evening. Light accumulations will be possible.
  • The mainly rain area may still see a touch of frozen at the start, but rain looks like the main precipitation type until late Thursday into Thursday night. That’s when light snow takes over with light accumulation possible.

Let me say I do not expect this to be a full blow ice storm in the true sense of the term. The ground temps are still above freezing, so that will help us out in a big way. Still, elevated surfaces could pick up on a coating of ice as far western Kentucky picks up on a heavy band of snow.

I’m leaving open a pretty good window of freezing rain accumulation and will close the gap with my next update. Here’s a general First Call for Ice and Snowfall…

I have you all set to track this early season winter storm into our region:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking the winter weather potential

Good Tuesday to one and all. A light wintry mix of rain and snow is falling across the region today with another waiting in the wings. That next system has the potential for a nasty mix of winter weather by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Our morning mix of light snow and light rain will be working across the region. Some very light snow accumulations are possible in a few spots, especially on elevated surfaces. Here are your radars to track the action:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

With temps around freezing, watch out for a slick spot or two trying to develop.

The next storm system continues to look like a messy one for our region from Wednesday night through Thursday night. This is the system that wasn’t on any models last week, but I said I was picking up on a signal for a decent storm during this time period. That signal proved to be true and this has the makings of a pretty big hit from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast.

One low develops ahead of the upper level low and works into the lower Ohio Valley then transfers energy to a huge storm along the east coast. This setup may very well bring heavy snow into parts of western Kentucky with the rest of the state going from freezing rain and a mix to rain then ending as some snow. There is a real possibility of a Winter Storm Threat mode later today for the west, especially.

Let’s see how the individual models are playing this.

NAM

GFS

The European

Let’s begin with the freezing rain threat for Wednesday night. I honestly can’t recall talking about freezing rain this early in the cold weather season, but here we are. If we do get a period of freezing rain, I suspect this is mainly on elevated objects since the ground temps are not below freezing.

The NAM:

GFS

The European Model

Some sleet may also show up at this time. Thankfully, temps rise to above freezing by Thursday morning.

The snow potential of this system continues to be high along and west of the track of the low and upper low. There is likely to be a heck of a comma head of snow that will put down a thumping wet snowfall. Exactly where that sets up is still to be determined, but areas of western Kentucky is seriously in the ball game.

The European shows the thumper threat:

The GFS

Have a great day and take care.

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Rain and some winter rolling in

Good Monday to one and all. We have a very active week of weather taking shape across central and eastern Kentucky with three systems set to impact us. The first arrives today in the form of rain, but it should be able to produce a little bit of winter stuff later tonight and Tuesday.

The day starts mainly dry, but the rain quickly engulfs the region as the day wears on. Locally heavy rain will be noted in the east:

As this system goes by, some trailing rain and snow moves in from the west, with a gradual switch to light snow:

The Hi-Res NAM continues to spit out some light accumulations in the area we’ve been highlighting as having the best chance or seeing some snow:

Notice lower res NAM isn’t as excited:

The Hi Res did much better with the Friday night snow showers and flurries than any other model, so we shall see. Still, this looks fairly light for any areas that can actually get in on some early Tuesday accumulations.

Our next system slowly rolls in from the Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday and may carry us through Friday. This can bring a whole mixed bag of precipitation our way, with arctic air bring some flakes behind it for next weekend:

The Canadian is even slower with that mess:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Rain and snow ahead

Good Sunday, folks. It’s a seasonally chilly day across the bluegrass state as clouds slowly increase. Those clouds are ahead of a rain and snow maker moving in for Monday and Tuesday.

Highs today are in the 40s with clouds rolling in this afternoon and evening.

This system continues to look like a rain maker to begin, with a quick transition to a swath of snow late Monday into Tuesday. Here’s the latest GFS:

The Canadian Model is similar, but develops a second wave of low pressure right behind that main system. Notice how this second wave brings a better snow chance to the southeast late Tuesday:

Overall, I still feel good with my target area for the best chance of, at least, light accumulations of snow:

The GFS Ensembles snow map is similar:

I may throw out a first call map later tonight, so check back. This is likely to be a light snow event.

In my last post, I said my old weather sniffer was picking up on a signal for next weekend that was not showing up on the models. Well, that is now showing up on the models. 🙂

Another deep trough digs into the eastern part of the country, bringing more frigid temps and snow chances our way. Can we actually get some kind of storm system to accompany it? The Canadian is trying:

The GFS is also trying, but appears to be having bias issues of east coast systems being too far east initially:

The European Model is most similar to the Canadian, but has a much deeper and colder setup:

Make it a great day and take care.

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