Storms give way to a better forecast

Good Monday to one and all. Our week is getting started on a pretty ugly setup with gusty showers and stormsrolling across the region. This action will give way to a much better setup for the rest of the week as temps take a little roller coaster ride.

Let’s begin with the showers out there today. They’re gusty, but won’t last all day as some drying works in by evening. Here are your radars to help you out:

Temperatures are generally running in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As skies clear tonight, temps will drop deep into the 20s for many areas:

Tuesday will feature sun and colder than normal temps around 50 for many. Throw in a bit of a wind and it will feel a little chillier.

Wednesday through Friday look good with temps returning to the 60s, with a 70 a possibility. Southwesterly winds will gust up ahead of a plains storm system. The models have been struggling with how to handle this particular system.

Odds favor this storm system bringing showers and some strong storms our way this weekend:

That’s a much colder air mass ready to come in behind that system into early next week. You can actually see snow showing up to our north and east.

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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Showers and a few storms increase

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up the weekend with milder air pressing in here, with rain not too far behind. Showers and a few storms get ready to increase from late today through Monday.

Clouds will increase as winds turn southwesterly wind, pushing temps into the 60s for many. Some afternoon showers are possible in central Kentucky, but the bulk of the action holds off until tonight and Monday.

Here are your radars to track the action:

Showers and some thunder rolls into Monday as colder air works in. This chill will be with us into Tuesday, but skies become mostly sunny. Milder air takes control by Wednesday, with readings heading toward 70 by the second half of the week as skies stay dry.

The pattern is primed for another big storm system in the plains as mild air is across the east and cold air invades the west:

That can fire up some decent thunderstorms from the plains into our region, but what happens after that? Some of the models are suggesting this pattern tries to become more established as we close March and say hello to April:

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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The weekend starts on a great note

Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend is off and running on a great note with blue skies and milder temps taking over. The second half of the weekend will find things going downhill as showers work into the region.

Temps today start in the frigid 20s and end in the 50s for many, with 60s in the west and south. Soak. It. Up.

Clouds will roll in here on Sunday as showers develop in the west and roll east.

As we look toward the rest of spring and into Summer, we know an El Nino is ongoing and forecast to get stronger. The CAS model is a seasonal model that’s constructed from analogs based off soil moisture. Obviously, our region is wet as is much of the country.

The CAS  has a cooler than normal and wetter than normal look from April through June:

If we go from June through August, we find more of the same:

I can certainly buy the wet part, but I’m not sold on the really cool part. Like last year, with so much water in the ground, nighttime lows will likely be skewed milder than normal. That skews the overall temps, too.

Have a great day and take care.

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Better weather for the weekend

Good Friday, folks. We’ve made it to the end of the week, with the first weekend of spring staring us in the face. The overall weather setup looks to improve as we move into the next few days, but the up and down temperature pattern remains.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be rather gusty as a weak system passes just to our east. That bad boy may get close enough eastern Kentucky to produce a stray shower.

Here’s regional radar to help ya out:

Saturday starts with temps deep into the 20s and ends with readings in the 50-55 degree range. Skies will stay sunny.

Clouds and winds increase on Sunday as temps head toward the 60-65 degree range. Those clouds may produce a shower or two late, but the majority of the showers arrive Sunday night and Monday:

 

The air behind that is a little colder than normal, but readings should bounce back very quickly by the middle of the week. That’s when temps take off and make a run at 70, but that would only be temporary. Watch how another system introduces some chill back into the mix to close out March and usher in April:

As we look down the road, it appears El Nino isn’t going away and will likely strengthen in the months ahead…

That is forecasting a moderate El Nino to develop this summer into fall. That may temper summer temps, but may do the opposite for next winter.

Have a great day and take care.

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The ups and downs of March

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s the first full day of spring, but there’s a definite chill in the air as some ugly shows up. Northwesterly winds behind a cold front are knocking the numbers down and we continue to see a few showers on the move.

These showers will become more scattered as the day wears on, with a few breaks in the clouds even showing up. With such cold air aloft, I can’t even rule out a little small hail. Here are your radars:

The weather on Friday looks decent with a cool wind and some sunshine. Temps will range from the upper 40s to low 50s.

Saturday is frigid to start with middle 20s showing up. By the afternoon, sunny skies will boost temps toward the low and middle 50s.

Clouds will increase on Sunday as we wait for our next weather maker. That’s a slow-moving system that rolls from west to east bringing a temperature drop and chill showers:

Several other systems will roll across the country, bringing some major temperature swings our way. Check those swings out into early April:

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Tracking a cold front toward Kentucky

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a cold front marching toward the state and it will arrive later tonight and early Thursday. This will bring an increase in showers and winds, but will bring a decrease in the numbers from your car thermometer as spring arrives.

Ahead of this front, temps surge to around 60 today with a mix of sun and clouds. A few showers move in later this evening, with the bulk of the action coming later tonight and Thursday morning.

Here are your radars to track the drops in from the northwest:

A much colder wind will below on Thursday as highs stay in the 40s. Clouds will linger, making for a rather raw day across central and eastern Kentucky.

Friday may be a slow starter, but improves as the day wears on. Highs should be able to climb back toward the low 50s.

Temps then head toward the 60s this weekend as a strong west to southwest flow kicks in. This is ahead of a bowling ball type system rolling across the country from west to east The first arrives early next week and looks ugly:

The pattern taking shape into early April has a very blocky look to it:

Have a wonderful first day of spring and take care.

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A weak system drops in Wednesday night

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s another very nice looking day in the bluegrass state, but a little bit of ugly is on the way. That comes in the form of a mid-week cold front sweeping into the region from the northwest.

Before that arrives, our weather continues to look very good. Highs today are back into the low and middle 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. A bit of a breeze will make it feel chillier than that.

Wednesday could see temps make a run at 60 with clouds and wind on the increase. This is just ahead of our cold front dropping into the state Wednesday night and Thursday morning. That should spit out some chilly showers during this time:

That’s a raw look with some snowflakes flying just to our north and east.

The good news is that this won’t last long. Southwesterly winds kick back in by the weekend, allowing temps to climb into the 60s.

I’ve been talking about a bowling ball type pattern for a while now. That’s a pattern that essentially throws big storms across the country in a west to east fashion. That kicks in next week and can bring some ugly weather with it. The trend is for a colder system…

New GFS

Canadian

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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A typical Mid-March forecast

Good Monday, everyone. We are coming off a seasonally chilly and very nice weather weekend across the Commonwealth. This nice weather looks to hang around for a few more days before things start to get active again.

Highs on this Monday will generally range from the upper 40s to low 50s in much of the region as skies stay partly sunny.

We are back into the middle 50s by Tuesday and could make a run at 60 on Wednesday as winds gust up. Those gusty winds are ahead of a system working in from the west and northwest that could produce a shower or two:

Temps behind that will take off for the weekend as west to southwest winds kick in. That means we should hit the 60s then head toward 70 or a little better late in the weekend and early next week. That’s ahead of a stronger system rolling in from the west:

This pattern will continue to send these “bowling ball” systems rolling across the country:

Some big storms will be possible in that kind of pattern.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Blue for St. Patrick’s Day

Good Sunday and Happy Saint Patrick’s Day. Green is normally the color of the day, but it’s a big blue sky taking center stage. This makes for a really nice final day of the weekend, with a mainly calm week ahead of us.

Highs today are in the 50s as winds gust up. Those gusty winds are ahead of a cold front dropping in here tonight. That front may bring isolated showers to central and eastern Kentucky.

The threat is small, but here are your radars to track the limited action:

Monday’s weather looks chilly with temps back down into the 40s for highs. A gusty northwest wind will add to the chill.

Another system then drops in here from the northwest by later Wednesday and Thursday. That will bring another chillier than normal shot and should also spawn a few showers:

That system looks to push east pretty quickly, leaving us with a milder pattern. Temps next weekend could easily make a run at 70 or better. Once into the following week, thunderstorm action looks to pick up the pace.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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A quiet weekend continues

Good Saturday, everyone. Our calm weather pattern is rolling through the weekend, but the temps could use some work. Things are pretty chilly across the land and this colder than normal air continues into next week.

Temperatures today are generally in the upper 40s to low 50s with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Sunday is another nice day, but winds and clouds will be on the increase as the day wears on. Temps may hit 50 in most areas, especially in the south. This is ahead of a weak system moving in for Sunday night and early Monday. I can’t rule out a few showers with this as temps come back down a few degrees for Monday.

The middle and end of the week will feature a system dropping in from the northwest. This will have a temp spike ahead of it and a chill down  behind it. This looks like it will miss the connection with a bigger storm in the southeast:

Temps after that system will rebound VERY quickly and could reach 70 next weekend.

I mentioned bowling balls coming at us in the next few weeks. Those bowling balls will be in the form of systems ejecting from the west and rolling across the country:

Systems like that mean some wild temp fluctuations, with mild air ahead of them and colder air behind them. With those temp swings, rounds of rain and storms would be noted. That could set the stage for additional severe weather chances.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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