Another potent weekend system

Good Friday to one and all. It’s a cloudy and rather cold day across the bluegrass state, but the pattern turns active this weekend. This is when a potent storm system rolls in here with high winds and a major temp crash.

Clouds increase today, but precipitation holds off until late this evening. With cold air in place, there’s still a chance for a brief period of frozen stuff on the leading edge of this. The GFS is seeing some hit and run winter precip before rain takes over:

Snow

Sleet

Freezing Rain

That really shouldn’t amount to much, if anything. Temps rise all night and into Saturday morning as gusty southwest winds boost temps into the 50s by midday Saturday. As the front slams in late in the afternoon, temps will crash. In between all this comes a nice line of gusty showers and maybe a rumble of thunder:

High wind action will be possible with this setup. Winds may very well gust to 50mph or a little greater at times Saturday.

Check out these gusts:

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Temps reach the upper teens and low 20s by Sunday morning and stay in the 20s on Sunday. Temps then bottom out around 10 by Monday morning:

Gusty winds will make it feel MUCH colder during the entire time, with wind chills possibly hitting zero or below by Monday morning:

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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Another big system this weekend

Good Thursday, folks. We have a calm weather day across the state, but you should enjoy it because things change this weekend. We have another big storm system rolling in here and this will unleash a big blast of winter cold.

Temps out there today will be in the low 40s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Our weekend system is much stronger and brings a smaller version of last weekend. Cold air is in place on Friday as precipitation moves in. There’s the chance for a little frozen precipitation on the leading edge of this before temps climb and it quickly goes over to showers. Showers and a few storms will be with us into Saturday as temps spike, then drop crash behind the front. That could lead to a few flakes:

NAM

GFS

Winds are going to become an issue again with gusts that may be greater than 50mph at times on Saturday:

GFS

NAM

Watch how fast the cold air crashes in here and look at how cold Sunday is:

This will set the stage for lows close to 10 by Monday and Tuesday. Wind chills during this time are frigid:

Make it a great day and take care.

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A little more rain arrives

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have another weak system dropping into the region, bringing a touch of shower action in here. This won’t last very long as it continues to be part of our overall busy pattern that threatens to turn much colder.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Some fog will be with us early as showers move in from the southwest. This is very light action, but there is the chance for a little thunder in the southeast. Here are your tracking tools:

Colder air comes into play for Thursday and Friday ahead of our weekend system. This cold air may hang tough enough for the precipitation to begin as some frozen stuff. That would go over to gusty showers with an embedded rumble of thunder ahead of our front. As the front goes through, temps crash and we watch for a little bit of snow on the backside:

GFS

Canadian

That’s some very cold air coming in behind it, with the next system coming in with a snow threat early next week. The Ensembles have been showing these cold blasts very well and the operational models are on board:

I’m not sure this pattern completely locks in, but I do see a pattern with much colder blasts of air. Can we get some snow? For the first time this winter, the Euro Weeklies are actually hitting at some snow around here. This is the forecast from the next 40 days:

Obviously, that’s ONLY designed to show trends and is not intended to show specific totals. Still, it offers winter weather lovers some hope.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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A little rain moves in

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have another weak system bringing rain and a few storms to the region today. This is the first in a series of systems set to impact our weather as Old Man Winter finally shows signs of coming to life.

Today’s showers and storms are more prominent across the south and southeast, but a few will slip into areas of the Interstate 64 corridor. Here are your Tuesday rain tracking tools:

Another front sweeps in on Wednesday with gusty winds and a few showers sweeping across the region. Colder winds will blow in on Thursday, with a bigger system late Friday into Saturday. This one has a chance to start as a little wintry mix before a few showers and storms take over ahead of the front. Once the front goes through, we could see a few flakes as temps crash on Saturday:

GFS

EURO

Canadian

Notice how the Canadian has more of a front end winter weather chance on Friday. We shall see.

A very cold pattern then engulfs much of the country behind that system and it looks to lock in:

Here are the temperature departures from normal up close and personal:

Winter weather lovers should be liking the pattern ahead, even as it’s the time of year I’m usually turning my attention toward spring anyway.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Active setup continues

Good Monday, everyone. We are rolling through our Monday with a pretty good looking day. Clouds will continue to fight it out with the sun as temps hit the 50s in most areas.

A southern system will throw some showers and storms into parts of the state later tonight and Tuesday. The best chance for this action will be across southern and southeastern Kentucky, but some rain should make it to Interstate 64 or a little north.

We will also have to watch for heavy rain issues across the southeast, where more than an inch of rain will fall:

Another front crosses the state on Wednesday and brings a few gusty showers into the region.  Temps behind this will come down for Thursday, but there’s a quick recovery ahead of a more potent system blowing in for the weekend. This arrives Saturday with the potential for more thunderstorms and high winds:

Look at those Saturday wind gusts:

You can see the cold air coming in behind this late Saturday into Sunday. That may bring a few flakes behind the front.

Confidence continues to grow for a very cold pattern engulfing much of the central and eastern parts of the country:

I’ll see you all later today for updates. Have a good one and take care.

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Tracking high winds and the severe threat

Good Saturday, everyone. We continue to watch a potent storm system rolling across the region, bringing high winds and the potential for severe storms. The greatest risk for severe weather rolls in during the afternoon and evening.

Here’s a quick recap:

  • High winds will top 50mph at times and could reach 60mph or greater as storms move in.
  • Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening as a line moves from west to east.
  • Damaging thunderstorm winds are the main threat, but I can’t rule out a quick tornado spin-up.
  • These storms may also bring a quick inch or two of rain to cause local high water issues.
  • Ahead of the storms, record highs will fall. Temps top out between 70 and 75 degrees, making this one of the warmest days on record for January.

I have you all set to do some Saturday storm tracking:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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High winds and strong storms ahead

Good Friday to one and all. We are dealing with a windy and mild day as scattered showers and storms roll across the region. This won’t be all day type rains, but we will see the greatest concentration across the north and west.

Once into Saturday, things take a walk on the wild side.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps hit the low 60s for many on that strong southwest flow. Wind gusts may reach 40mph at times. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will also be noted. Here are your Thursday tracking toys…

The setup for Saturday continues to be ugly for millions of Americans. Our storm will have high winds and severe storms ahead of it and a snowstorm and ice storm behind it:

This future radar shows a line of storms working across the state from west to east Saturday into early Saturday evening:

High winds will be likely with this setup:

With or without thunderstorms,those winds can cause some issues on Saturday.

Let’s try to change it up, shall we? The models continue to show a major pattern realignment starting late next week through the following week. Watch all this on the European Ensembles:

The latest run of the GFS goes crazy with the cold. These are the low temps showing up:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Wild weather on the way

Good Thursday, everyone. We have one more calm day before we get into a pretty wild looking setup to start the weekend. That’s when a potent storm system moves our way, likely causing some issues as it moves through.

Here are my updated thoughts:

  • Rounds of showers and storms then work in from late Friday through Saturday night, bringing a flood and flash flood risk.
  • The greatest high water risk continues to be across western and parts of central Kentucky.
  • A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday.
  • High winds of greater than 50mph will be possible Saturday and Saturday night.
  • Near record high temps are possible on Saturday, especially across eastern Kentucky. That’s where temps can reach 70-75.

The winds are likely to be a major issue with this setup. Gusts of 40mph or higher are possible Friday:

That’s nothing compared to the gusts coming Saturday into Saturday evening. The models are going for 60mph+ gusts for some areas…

GFS

NAM

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook for Friday:

The Saturday Severe Weather Outlook focuses the threat farther east:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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A wild weekend ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a calm weather day across the region, but that calm is about to go away pretty quickly. That’s because a potent storm system moves our way by the weekend, bringing heavy rain, strong storms and near record highs.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. High temps are in the 40s with a mix of sun and clouds showing up.

Now it’s time to focus on the big system rolling in here for later this week into the weekend. This will bring the potential for flooding, strong storms, high winds and record highs.

Here’s a quick summation of what looks to go down:

  • Scattered showers and storms develop on Thursday and this action will increase into Friday, especially across central and western Kentucky.
  • Rounds of showers and storms then work in from Friday night through Saturday night, bringing a flood and flash flood risk.
  • Several inches of rain may fall across western and central Kentucky.
  • A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday.
  • High winds of greater than 50mph will be possible Saturday and Saturday night.
  • Near record high temps are possible on Saturday, especially across eastern Kentucky. That’s where temps can reach 70.
  • After a break on Sunday, another heavy rain and thunderstorm maker looks to return for Monday and Tuesday. Another system may follow that up a few days later.

Here are my initial areas of interest for the possibility of flooding:

The central and western parts of the state continue to be the main focus for flash flooding , general flooding and river flooding. The models back this up:

That could still shift around a bit, but the setup is for repeat shower and thunderstorm action, especially late Friday through Saturday. This is also when some severe thunderstorms will be possible.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A little snow before a lot of rain

Good Tuesday, everyone. A touch of snow is impacting parts of the region early today, then it’s game on for a very active setup late this weekend into the weekend. That can bring heavy rain and strong storms our way.

Our Tuesday starts with a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the region:

Light accumulations of snow will be noted in some areas, possibly causing slick roads early on. By this afternoon, sunny skies take control with temps reaching the 40s.

The setup from late this week through early next week is likely to feature a ton of rain around here. It may even produce high winds and strong storms.

I made this map a few days ago to highlight the potential:

The Hazards Outlook from the Weather Prediction Center is similar and shows the different systems and threats:

You can see the initiatl storm producing heavy rain all the way through the northeast, with the next system producing heavy rain around here early next week. You will also notice the severe threat just to our south. The SPC has areas just to our south on alert for Saturday:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that severe risk all the way into the lower Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night.

High winds are likely to be a big player. Check out the highest gusts from the various models…

EURO

GFS

This is a potent storm system that may cause all kinds of issues in our region. From flooding to severe storms and high winds… We may have it. Areas of central and eastern Kentucky may also be near record highs on Saturday.

The next system will need to be watched for Monday and Tuesday.

Here are your snow tracking toys for early today:

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Morehead

Winchester

London

Mt. Vernon

Have a great day and take care.

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