Active pattern set to return

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a weak cold front slipping through the state today, bringing another shot of cold air for the next few days. As that happens, the overall pattern gets ready to really crank by the end of the week into the weekend. That’s when a deep trough slowly works across the eastern half of the country, bringing a couple big storm systems with it.

Today is a windy and very nice day with temps in the pleasant 60s. Those numbers come way back down behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will struggle into the low 50s with frost and freezing temps during the mornings.

Hurricane Willa is coming ashore along the Pacific coast of Mexico today. This powerful storm is already throwing tropical clouds all the way toward our region…

The remnant low from Willa will cross Mexico and into Texas and then merge with a deepening trough across the eastern half of the country. Here are the European Ensembles forecast tracks:

Another Pacific Hurricane, Sergio, also crossed the country to bring is rain a few weeks ago. To have two different Pacific tropical systems bring us rain is absolutely astounding!

That system will quickly throw rain our way as early as Thursday. The NAM only goes out through Friday morning, but you can clearly see a healthy system forming:

Snow lovers would be going crazy with that kind of setup in the winter, or even a month from now.

The Canadian shows something very similar then takes this storm up the east coast with additional systems diving in behind it:

Rounds of rain, gusty winds and chilly temps are on tap for the bluegrass state from late Thursday through early next week.

As I look at the pattern to close out October and begin November, we may very well see another deep trough digging into the country. This one may get help from a recurving typhoon in the western Pacific:

If that system does recurve as the models suggest, that energy would wind up heading toward the Aleutian Islands, forcing a blocky looking ridge ahead of it. This would send a very deep trough into the US and several of the medium range models are seeing the potential:

Make it a great day and take care.

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A gusty blast of cold air arrives tonight

Good Saturday, folks. We have a big change on the way tonight as a blast of cold air sweeps into the state. This blast of cold will be accompanied by very gusty winds that COULD even spit out a snowflake in the eastern Kentucky mountains.

Scattered showers will be noted early today with some sun and clouds this afternoon. Another line of showers will be likely along a cold front dropping in this evening:

That front slams in here late this afternoon and evening and will have VERY gusty winds ahead of it and behind it. Gusts may exceed 40mph at times:

Temps crash from the upper 50s and low 60s during the afternoon into the upper 30s by late evening. A strong northwesterly wind flow kicks in behind the front and that may spit out some sprinkles or snow flurries across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains Saturday night. While the best chance is to our north and east, I can’t rule out a few flakes wandering into the eastern half of the state. The HI Res NAM shows this:

The West Virginia Mountains could do very well in this type of flow.

Temperatures by Sunday morning will drop into the upper 20s to near 30 for much of the state:

That’s going to be a healthy freeze. Wind chills may reach the low 20s at times.

A fairly tranquil period of fall weather moves in for the first half of next week, with the potential for a big storm system by next weekend.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Showers move in to start the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our weekend is kicking off with a wet weather maker moving in by the evening. This is ahead of a push of very cold air rolling in for Saturday night and Sunday.

Today begins with temps in the frost 30s. Clouds will then increase as the day wears on, with showers not too far behind. Those showers will kick in this evening and take us into early Saturday.

This may mean some wet high school football games across central and eastern Kentucky. Here are your Friday trackers:

Temps hit the 60-65 degree range on a gusty southwest wind ahead of our rain maker. Those rains roll into town by the evening and will carry us into Saturday morning. Skies dry for a bit behind that, but a cold front will drop in during the evening, bringing a few showers with it:

You can see a few snowflakes showing up just to our north and into the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia.  Snowshoe could see a few inches of the white stuff.

Cold air crashes in here Saturday evening with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s by Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday may not get out of the upper 40s, even with mostly sunny skies.

Early next week looks really good, but I’m going to continue to hammer home the chance for a big system for the final week of October. Our major amplification of the jet stream may yield a biggie in the east:

Some interesting things can come from a setup like that. Stay tuned!

Have a good one and take care.

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All eyes on the weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. The day is dawning with a kiss of frost across central and eastern Kentucky, but will end on a very nice note. As we head into the weekend, showers look to sit things out as another blast of cold gets set to blow in.

As the patchy frost burns off this morning, temps rebound into the low 50s by this afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, giving us a gorgeous fall day.

Those clouds are ahead of a system moving in later Friday into Saturday. That brings rain back into our region with a blast of cold air to follow.

That rain rolls in here from west to east and takes us into early Saturday. Much colder air moves in behind it for later Saturday into Sunday. That may bring around some wraparound moisture in here:

Euro

Some flakes are possible across the northern Ohio Valley and in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures by Sunday morning will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s as skies clear.

The weather into the first half of the week looks really pleasant with the numbers still a little below normal.

I continue to beat the drum for a major amplification of the jet stream for the final week of October This type of setup is pretty wild:

Things could get a little interesting before the month closes.

The longer range European Ensembles are out and take us from now through November 29th. The model shows a colder than normal pattern during this time, but it keeps our region in a very active pattern. That would mean a lot more rain and increasing snow chances.

Ensembles rainfall:

Control run:

Ensembles snow:

The control run builds an early season glacier:

Obviously, we take any of those models with a grain of salt, but the overall setup makes sense. Our current pattern is now colder than normal and wetter than normal and that’s exactly what the model is showing. How much of that equates to snow across the country remains to be seen. But, snow cover across Canada is way above normal right now and that’s usually a harbinger of a colder and snowier winter in our part of the world.

Have a great day and take care.

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Frosty temps likely tonight

Good Wednesday to one and all. Some areas have already seen patchy frost, but it’s a widespread frost threat tonight and Thursday morning for the entire region. This continues to be part of a pattern that’s skewed much colder than normal for our part of the world.

Highs today are in the mid and upper 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be gusty as a cold front moves through. That front has no rain with it, but it does knock our temps down even more tonight. Many thermometers will be in the low 30s with frost a good bet. Green thumbs are on high alert.

The rest of Thursday looks good with highs in the lower 50s.

Rain then returns to the region on Friday as a system zips in from the southwest. That means some wet weather for high school football fans.

The blast of cold coming in behind this front is sharper on some models than others. The latest European Model has a sharper trough diving in Saturday night and early Sunday:

That run is trying to spit out a few flakes during that time:

That’s something the GFS was showing a few days ago, but it’s backed off that look for now. Still, both models are bringing a healthy shot of cold into the region for Sunday and Monday.

I’m going to continue to focus on the final week of October for the potential for a slow-moving big storm system across the eastern half of the country. That signal is healthy on the Ensembles:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Frosty cold mornings settle in

Good Tuesday, everyone. Frosty cold fall mornings are finally upon us, with the potential end of the growing season coming later this week. That brings us to the weekend and the potential for a storm system to unleash even colder air.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs are in the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds for most areas. Lows by Wednesday morning will drop into the upper 30s as skies stay mainly clear.

Another front moves in here in the afternoon with gusty winds and falling temps. That front won’t produce any rain, but unleashes the coldest air of the season by Thursday morning.

These numbers will effectively end the growing season…

This takes us to the weekend and another system moving in, unleashing even colder air into early next week. Rain is likely Friday into Saturday with the air behind this trying to produce a few Ohio Valley snowflakes:

Temps behind that will likely drop into the 20s for lows, bringing a freeze to much of the region.

Winter is fast approaching and I’ve been busy doing my annual homework for the winter forecast. I also like to check out the seasonal models to see what they are saying. The Japanese Model has had a good run this year, so It certainly has a hot hand.

The new seasonal run for December through February shows a lot of blocking in areas where you want to see it for cold weather in our region. Check out the deep trough it has across much of the country for the winter:

That’s showing 500mb height anomalies and not temp anomalies.

The UKMET seasonal model does things a little differently. It breaks things down by percentages. It has a low chance for above normal temps, with a much greater chance for below normal temps:

Given those percentages, you can see how the model anticipates a setup similar to what the Japanese is showing.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Cold shots keep coming at us

Good Monday, folks. It’s a very wet start to the week, but it’s the cold shots taking center stage in the weather world. These shots will throw frost out way this week, with even colder air lurking by the weekend and early next week.

Rounds of rain and a few storms are rumbling across the state today. Locally heavy rains are a good bet, with several areas picking up an inch or so of rain. Here are your Monday tracking toys:

Chilly air follows all this up for the rest of the week with a hard frost likely by Wednesday and/or Thursday mornings. Lows by then may be closing in on the freezing mark in many areas.

The setup for next weekend has an interesting look to it with a system ejecting out of the southwest and a major blast of cold air diving in from the northwest:

That’s another healthy shot of rain with the GFS following it up with the first chance for some flakes:

Obviously, the chance for flakes are always low for this time of year, but it’s happened many times before, including multiple times this decade. We shall see about that.

The cold associated with that system is impressive, with the numbers sliding into the 20s for lows:

The last week of the month appears to be just itching for a major amplification, allowing for some big time cold to enter the country:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Rainy skies return to the bluegrass

Good Sunday to one and all. This taste of early November weather rolls on across central and eastern Kentucky, and now we are tracking chilly rains back into town. This action is actually some of what’s leftover from a Pacific hurricane. I think we can now say it’s rained in every possible way this year. 🙂

As always, we begin with today’s weather and roll ahead.

Showers will be coming at us from the southwest, with some locally heavy downpours. There’s also an outside shot at a rumble of thunder. Here is your weekend ending tracking toys:

The setup for Monday will feature a slow-moving front draped across the region with a wave of low pressure along it. The end result will be chilly rains north of the boundary with a few storms south of it:

That same setup later in November or December would be a big snow and ice maker across this region. Even though it’s only the middle of October, it’s still producing early season snows way far south in the plains states:

Once leftover showers move way on Tuesday, the first hard frost of the season is waiting in the wings for Wednesday and/or Thursday mornings. Below freezing temps are possible for lows:

Another big system will then roll our way by next weekend, bringing an increase in rain and the potential for Ohio Valley flakes behind it:

Even colder air follows that one up, with a likely visit from Mr. Freeze:

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Rounds of rain to return

Good Saturday, folks. It’s another very chilly day across central and eastern Kentucky, but the day looks really nice. Unfortunately, things are about to go downhill very quickly over the next few days as more rain rolls into Kentucky.

Temps early this morning are in the middle 30s with a kiss of frost following some Friday night showers. We will have a mix of sun and clouds out there today, but the clouds may be stubborn in some areas. Temps will be back in the 50s for highs.

What’s left of Pacific Hurricane Sergio is crossing out of Mexico and into Texas early today, with the hurricane models still picking up on the remnant low, bringing it toward us later Sunday:

That’s just amazing to see a remnant tropical low move that quickly (or at any speed) from the Pacific to Kentucky. Folks, these are strange weather times we are living in.

This system brings a surge of rain in here tonight and Sunday, with waves of heavy rain continuing through Monday:

As that system departs, it leaves behind some pretty nice fall weather for later Tuesday through Thursday. Frosty mornings are likely for both Wednesday and Thursday, but the afternoons look really good with below normal temps.

Another system works in from the southwest as we head into next weekend. That will help unleash an even colder air mass:

That cold shot could very well put an official end to the growing season.

Make it a sensational Saturday and take care.

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Chilly temps and rain chances

Good Friday, folks. We are kicking off the weekend with a November feel in the air. This setup will keep chilly temps around, but will also bring rain chances back into the Commonwealth.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Lows this morning will be in the mid and upper 30s for parts of the region, bringing a touch of frost in the cold valleys. Clouds will increase this afternoon as temps hit the middle 50s for highs.

Those clouds are ahead of a fast-moving disturbance that will bring a few showers in here. Those are in an out well before daybreak and I have you set to do some tracking:

As clouds clear by Saturday morning, temps drop back into the 30s with patchy frost possible in the cold valleys. Afternoon highs reach the 50s as a lot of clouds linger.

The setup from Sunday into next week actually looks like a winter one. Several systems will move in from the southwest, bringing waves of chilly rain to the region:

If that same setup presents itself this winter, major snow and ice would accompany it.

Frosty cold mornings will follow that up into the middle of next week with a seasonal chill continuing for the rest of next week.

There’s a strong signature for cold showing up next weekend into the following week. Here’s how the GFS gets the ball rolling:

The GFS Ensembles follow that up with additional cold shots:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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