Watching Beta and late week changes

Good Monday to one and all. Our gorgeous fall weather continues to show up and show off across the bluegrass state and we have more to come through the first half of the week. By the time we get into the second half of the week, tropical rains from Beta look to impact our weather. That should be ahead of a big system that can bring heavy rain, wind and even colder air than the past few days.

Sunday was another chilly morning across the state. My tweet has all you need to know:

We are back into the 40s for lows through Tuesday for most and into Wednesday across central and eastern parts of the state. Highs are still awesome!

Tropical Storm Beta is slowly rolling toward Texas and should make landfall on Monday. There is an increasing consensus for this storm to get close enough to us to bring the potential for rain from Wednesday night through Friday. The latest Hurricane Model forecasts show what I’m talking about:

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center now includes Kentucky in the cone of uncertainty:

The bulk of this looks to come out over the weekend and merge with a deep trough digging into the region. This may blow up a good old fashioned rain storm that ushers in very cold air behind it:

This is one monster setup on the EURO:

Yowza.

Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

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Great fall weather rolls on

Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to be locked into a gorgeous fall pattern across central and eastern Kentucky, and this looks to continue for much of the week ahead. Changes do show up by the end of the week as we watch a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s begin with the Saturday morning because it was impressive. My tweets tell the story:

The model forecasts, just like they have been for a while now, were too warm compared to reality this morning.

Today will feature another chilly start near 40 with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. This awesome weather takes us through the middle of next week, at least. Lows in the 40s and highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s look common as we keep the low humidity and dry skies.

This is a great run of dry weather as we enter the heart of our driest part of the year. The good news is our soil moisture is running way ahead of normal right now:

Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

Told y’all this was the polar opposite of September 2019. 🙂

Once into the middle of next week, the pattern is likely going to be determined by what happens with Beta down in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm is currently fighting off a little shear:

This is forecast to become a hurricane and heard toward Texas before it hugs the coast all the way into Louisiana. Hurricane Warnings are out for much of this region. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

What happens to this system remains to be seen and there isn’t a ton of model agreement or continuity from run to run. The pattern will throw several deepening troughs into the region late next week into the following week. Can one of these pick up the remnants? Does this system just meander until it gives up? We shall see.

The EURO has been performing much better of late, but still cannot figure out surface temps to save its life. Here’s how the model handles it all:

The Canadian has a similar look in the overall scheme of things:

The GFS is the GFS:

The troughs showing up at the end of the month will have to be watched to see if we can get an early season frost threat behind one of them.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Fall chill settles in

Good Saturday, everyone. Our blast of fall air continues to settle in and looks to hang tough well into next week. That’s when things may change, courtesy of a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. After a crisp start in the low and mid 40s, highs recover into the middle 60s for many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will still be a bit gusty, but this looks awesome!!!

The clear sky sets the stage for another chilly night as temps bottom out around 40. A few upper 30s may show up in the coldest valleys:

GFS

NAM

Wind chills will drop into the 30s in a few locations.

Highs are generally in the 60s for Saturday and upper 60s to low 70s for Monday and Tuesday. Lows look to stay in the 40s through the middle of next week, giving us one amazing run of fall weather.

Everything from this point may hinge upon what happens in the tropics. Tropical Depression 22 was supposed to be Wilfred, but a system in the Atlantic beat it do it. Then it was supposed to be Alpha, then a system off he coast of PORTUGAL took that name. So it looks like Beta will be the name of the Gulf system:

The future Beta is going to be a slow-mover in the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days:

Can this system eventually get caught up and pulled northward into our region later next week? That’s certainly a possibility and the models are picking up on it…

EURO

CANADIAN

Enjoy the day  and take care.

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Fall arrives earlier than normal

Good Friday, folks. It’s time to move into full blown POT OF CHILI ALERT for all of Kentucky. Grocery stores will be packed as everyone stocks up on chili making supplies, so plan accordingly. Depending on your chili, you may want to stock up on some extra TP. Just sayin’! 🙂

Now comes the real deal fall chill settling in today through the weekend. This blasts in tonight behind a cold front that will be mainly dry, but keeps low clouds around across the east and southeast. That may keep some areas in the 50s for most of the day. Here are today’s highs from the NAM:

High school football games will have temps dropping into the 50s by halftime.

Lows by Saturday morning drop into the low and mid 40s for many, but the Hi Res NAM suggests the cold valleys in the north central parts of the state may slide a few degrees below that:

Throw in a bit of a wind and we get our first taste of a wind chill:

Saturday is going to be another absolutely gorgeous weather day with highs mainly in the 60s:

Sunday morning will be in similar shape as Saturday morning with a few valleys challenging the upper 30s. Highs in the afternoon hit the upper 60s and low 70s for another fabulous fall day.

We should keep morning lows generally in the 40s through the middle of next week with afternoon highs in the 70-75 degree range. Skies stay dry with super low humidity levels.

The second half of next week may depend a lot on what happens with two tropical systems. Wilfred is forming in the Gulf of Mexico and should meander around for several days before deciding where to go. Hurricane Teddy is out in the Atlantic and may threaten New England by the middle of next week:

The EURO takes Teddy toward Maine:

You can also see Wilfred to be threatening Texas then stalling for a few days. The same run of the EURO then lifts this northward toward Louisiana then into our region as it tries to merge with a deep trough:

The CANADIAN keeps it in the Gulf of Mexico, missing the trough:

The GFS is having a hard time even seeing this system, so we will skip over it. 🙂

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Chilly weather for the weekend

Good Thursday, everybody. A potent fall cold front is working into the region today and ushers in the coldest air since early May. This brings a real deal fall chill that should carry us through the weekend and into much of next week.

Sally continues to weaken as it rolls across the deep south. As we talked about earlier this week, the super slow-movement kept this system well to our south as our fall front sweeps in here on Thursday. That may bring an isolated shower or storm, but windy and chilly weather will be the rule behind this. Highs Friday and Saturday are mainly in the 60s for much of the region, with lows dropping into the low 40s over the weekend. Can we get a traditional cold spot to reach the upper 30s? Maybe.

The NAM is forecasting temps to be very close to the upper 30s by Saturday morning:

The models continue to spit out a wind chill number that makes it feel like the 30s:

Below normal temps will then continue through the rest of the weekend into much of next week:

The tropics are super crazy as we get ready to run out of names:

The system in the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to become Wilfred, the final name on the current list. It’s off the the Greek Alphabet from there for only the second time ever. That gulf system may threaten areas from Texas to Louisiana and there’s a chance Teddy gets drawn toward New England. The Euro likes a Maine landfall:

Incredible!

Enjoy your day and take care.

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A big blast of fall ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. As Hurricane Sally comes ashore across the Gulf Coast, a potent fall cold front will act to steer this storm well to our south. This same front then unleashes a blast of fall air that has staying power.

Believe it or not, smoke from the western wildfires is showing up over top of the region. You could really see this on Tuesday:

Today’s smoke is thickest across the northern half of the state and you can see this on a visible satellite:

Here’s a better depiction of just how much of the country is seeing some smoke from the devastation in the west:

That’s pretty remarkable and sobering at the same time.

Hurricane Sally is slowly coming onshore today:cone graphic

The slower movement has allowed this storm to weaken some because of upwelling of cooler water underneath it. But the same slow-movement is also leading to historic flooding in this region:

[Key Messages]

The slower system also means it has less of a chance to impact our weather because it gives the cold front a head start in getting in here. That effectively pushes this system well to our south, but we can still see offshoot moisture leading to a few showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday:

GFS

NAM

The air behind this front is chilly and is likely to keep our Friday highs in the 60s:

Saturday highs may also stay in the 60s for some. Lows over the weekend will be deep into the 40s:

SATURDAY MORNING

SUNDAY MORNING

With a northeasterly flow settling in through the first half of next week, we are likely to see a string of mornings in the 40s with very nice afternoon temps. Fall is threatening to lock in a little early this year, so you may want to stock up on chili making supplies. 😉

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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All eyes on Sally and a late week front

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a blast of pleasant air across the state today, but the focus is on Sally in the Gulf of Mexico and any possible impact it may have on us. Some of that moisture may team with another fall cold front to bring showers later in the week.

Let’s kick things off with what’s going on out there today. Our morning starts with the upper 40s to low 50s, so you may need a lightweight jacket. By the afternoon, it’s awesome with highs in the 70s.

Sally continues to strengthen as it heads toward a late day landfall:

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

[Key Messages]

The center of this stays well to our south, but it’s likely to throw some offshoot tropical moisture our way by later Wednesday and Thursday. That’s when it should interact with a strong fall cold front dropping in from the northwest:

GFS

Temps behind this may not get out of the 60s for highs and lows drop deep into the 40s:

The overall tropics are as active as you will ever find in the Atlantic basin. We currently have 5 named storms. FIVE:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Pleasant weather starts the week

Good Monday to one and all. We’re coming off a super soaker of a weekend that brought serious flooding issues to some areas. Thankfully, the rains have ended and we have very nice weather to start the week. It’s a week where a developing hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico tries to throw some rain at us later in the week.

Highs out there today are generally in the mid and upper 70s with skies becoming partly sunny. You may notice a little haze in the atmosphere and that’s likely a bit of smoke from the western wildfires.

This sets the stage for temps to reach the upper 40s and low 50s for many by Tuesday morning:

Some of the coolest valleys may push 45 degrees to start the day. The rest of the day features more nice weather with highs back into the 70s.

Once into the middle of the week, what’s left of Sally has a decent chance to bring more rain into Kentucky. Tropical Storm Sally continues to strengthen in the eastern Gulf of Mexico:

Sally will become a hurricane as it heads toward a Tuesday landfall in southeastern Louisiana. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

While the center of Sally is likely to stay to our south, moisture from that may wind up being on the northern side of it and interact with a front dropping into Kentucky. Tropical moisture combining with a cold front ahead of a deep fall trough can sometimes be the recipe to put down decent rains. Here’s a look at how the models handle this:

EURO

GFS

GFS

How much rain can actually make it into the region remains to be seen, but the best chance will be across the south and southeast.

Once that front blows through here, it’s game on for awesome fall air as temps go below normal:

CANADIAN

EURO

Temps should rebound a bit after that but the Ensembles continue to point toward another deep trough digging in here later in the following week:

That’s a terrible look for the fire ravaged areas of the west, though.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Rain and storms continue

Good Sunday to one and all. We are dealing with additional rounds of showers and storms rumbling through the region and this setup is putting down heavy rains. This is ahead of a cold front that ushers in better air for the next few days. At the same time, we are keeping a close eye on Sally in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s start things out with the storms of today. Rounds of showers and storms continue across central and eastern Kentucky. The local high water threat is something for us to keep an eye on, especially early today. Here are your storm tracking radars:

Rains taper off from northwest to southeast late today into early Monday as some awesome air works in here. Highs are generally in the 70s Sunday and Monday and lows may dip into the high 40s by Tuesday morning. From there, things depend on our developing system in the Gulf of Mexico. You can see this system coming off the coast of Florida:

The National Hurricane Center now takes Sally to hurricane strength before bringing it onshore near or just east of New Orleans:

cone graphic

I think this has a chancer to become a major hurricane . That angle can cause some pretty big issues, especially along the Mississippi coast and eastern parts of Louisiana.

This system is going to throw some, at least, offshoot tropical moisture our way by Wednesday and Thursday. That would interact with a cold front and I’ve seen those setups put down some overachiever rains.

The EURO shows direct heavy rains from this making into Kentucky and merging with a DEEP fall trough:

That could be a Pot Of Chili Alert if things play out like the Euro thinks.

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Rounds of storms kick in

Good Saturday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms are kicking in across the region and this brings heavy rains through Sunday. As we roll into next week, it’s all about a tropical system down in the Gulf of Mexico. That may throw moisture our way late next week.

Let us begin by talking about the heavy rain of the weekend.  As the next system works in later today into Sunday, rounds of showers and storms increase. Here’s a quick overview:

I’ve outlined the areas that may see the heaviest rainfall setting up:

The Forecast models have quite the variance in terms of who gets the most rain:

GFS

CANADIAN

EURO

Here are your radars for the day:

Temps behind this front will be very pleasant into the first half of next week, but the focus quickly shifts to what’s happening in the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where a tropical system is likely to develop as we continue to track a super active tropical setup:

The Gulf system is likely to roll toward the central Gulf Coast states in a few days. You can see that on the tropical models:

Moisture from this system is likely to get drawn northward during the second half of the week. It may combine forces with another fall cold front dropping in here from the northwest, but how this evolves is still fairly low confidence.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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