Scattered storms join the weekend warmth

Good Friday to one and all. We have a much warmer pattern finally engulfing the Bluegrass State, just in time for the weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news comes with the potential for showers and thunderstorms to increase.

Highs Friday should reach 70 in many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be gusty from the southwest, ahead of a storm system rolling our way. That will increase our thunderstorm threat late Saturday and Sunday:

Highs ahead of the storms Saturday should reach 70 to 75 in many areas. Once the storms shut off Sunday, highs might rebound to 65 to 70 in most areas.

The flow will then throw another round of showers and storms our way later Monday and Tuesday:

This continues to be part of a very warm and stormy setup. Later next week, a deep trough goes into the western part of the country as a ridge of high pressure flexes some muscle across the southeast. This setup could put the Plains and our region in the target zone for rounds of big storms:

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Milder air will lead to weekend storms

Good Thursday, folks. We have a big-time blast of milder air pressing into the region in the coming days. This mild air will take our temps into something more typical of April. With the April warmth will also come April showers and thunderstorms.

Highs Thursday will hit the low 60s for many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds.

A warm front lifts across the region Wednesday night and will carry a small chance of showers in the north. The air coming in behind this front is pretty awesome in terms of temps:

As temps rise, our storm chances will be on the increase. This happens as low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley this weekend. The highest storm chances will be Saturday night and early Sunday:

A few of the storms could be on the strong side.

This is part of a very active setup, with storm systems rolling across the country:

This should put areas from the plains into the Ohio Valley under the gun for rounds of strong storms and heavy rains. Look at some of the model rain numbers just over the next 10 days:

This kicks off a likely super-active setup of strong to severe thunderstorms in these same areas through April. That also shows up well on the 45-day rain map from the CFS:

Buckle up for a stormy ride, my friends.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Warm and stormy setup ahead

Good Wednesday, folks. We have a brief blast of chilly weather settling into the region, but this air won’t last very long. Our pattern is about to turn warm and stormy by the weekend. This looks to be a sign of the weather times as we roll forward.

Highs Wednesday will be in the mid and upper 40s in many areas, and in the low 50s in the south. Partly cloudy skies will rule the day. Temps will drop into the upper 20s by Thursday morning, with milder temps settling in by the afternoon. Highs will be in the low 60s. Friday looks windy and warm, with highs hitting the 70s. Clouds will increase ahead of a storm system rolling in for the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will become common by Saturday night and Sunday:

A few strong storms will be possible this weekend. Highs stay in the upper 60s to the low 70s.

Several systems will then roll across the region over the next 10 days. Each could bring some strong storms and heavy rainfall. Look at the rain forecast map during this time:

To illustrate the warm potential in this pattern, watch the GFS ensembles through the first few days of April:

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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A small bump in our spring road

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a cold front pushing across Kentucky, and it will bring a one-and-done chilly shot to the region. Beyond that, it’s all about a warm and stormy setup for our region.

Tuesday’s cold front could spark a shower or thunderstorm. Winds will be gusty, with a mix of sun and clouds for everyone. Highs could reach 70 in the south, 60 to 65 for the rest of the state:

Wednesday will see another day of a mix of sun and clouds, but the chilly weather will be back for a visit. Highs will be in the 40s, with lows in the upper 20s by Thursday morning.

Once past this … Look out! Spring really begins to take control of our weather pattern. Highs on Thursday could reach 60 then head toward 70 on Friday. Winds will be gusty ahead of a weekend storm system. That system will bring rounds of showers and storms our way:

Highs this weekend stay warm with upper 60s to low 70s for many.

This pattern only grows warmer for the final week and change of March, and that carries into early April:

It’s also a very stormy pattern.The GFS ensembles two-week rainfall map continues to target the Mississippi Valley into our region:

The long-range ensembles from the European model place a bull’s-eye over the same areas through the end of April:

Have a great day and take care.

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Showers and storms to increase

Good Monday, everybody. Our work week is starting off with milder air slowly, but surely, taking control of the pattern. This milder brand of air will usher in an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the next few days.

Highs out there Monday should range from 60 to 65 degrees in most areas. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted, with the chance of a shower or thunderstorm:

The threat of showers and thunderstorms will be much greater as we head into Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold front drops in:

A few of the storms might be on the strong side, with small hail and gusty winds.

Much chillier air comes in behind this for Wednesday as highs settle back into the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds will be gusty with increasing amounts of sunshine later in the day.

Thursday will find southwesterly winds kicking in, with highs returning to the low 60s. Those numbers continue to climb Friday, ahead of a storm system moving in for the weekend. This bad boy should produce widespread showers and storms:

The overall pattern will be skewed warmer than normal, but quick-hitting chilly shots will also be moving across the country. Watch this animation through the rest of the month into the first few days of April:

That should lead to active weather with frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across our region. This shows up well on the two-week rainfall map from the GFS ensembles:

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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Another active week of weather takes shape

Good Sunday, folks. We’re wrapping up the weekend with much better weather blowing across the bluegrass state. This means temps on the increase and more in the way of sunshine. Let’s soak it up, because another busy week of weather is taking shape.

Highs today will reach the 50-55 degree range for many under partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be  a tad gusty, but that’s typical for March.

Monday is even warmer with southwesterly winds kicking in. Highs should reach the low and middle 60s as clouds increase. There is the threat for a late day shower, but a lot of that holds off until Tuesday:

After a seasonal brand of chill for the middle of the week, the setup across the country then starts to skew warmer than normal. Check out the warm shots showing up on the GFS Ensembles through the rest of March:

With the warmer air will come several storm systems rolling across the country. Each of these can create thunderstorms from the plains into our region. The first arrives in about a week from now:

Additional systems will then follow that up as we go into the following week.

The above setup matches up VERY well with my overall thinking for the spring, and matches up with the CFS seasonal model. The CFS rainfall map through April shows my severe weather concern:

That’s the look one would expect in this stormy setup. With the Gulf of Mexico water temps being crazy warm, that should aid in the severe weather threat for our region and into the south.

Temps from the same CFS run through April look warmer than normal:

A warm and very stormy spring is likely waiting in the wings.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Better weather pushing in

Good Saturday to one and all. We had to go through some very ugly stuff to get to better weather days, but those days are now pushing in. This will set the stage for milder air to take over, as our pattern begins to look more and more like spring.

Highs Saturday will range from the middle 40s in the north to the middle 50s in the south. Skies will feature clouds and sun battling it out, with some leftover showers in the north and east:

Sunday looks fantastic, with sunshine and normal temps across the entire region. Things will then turn even milder on Monday with highs in the 60s and the potential for some low 70s. Winds will become gusty as a weak front settles in from the north. That should create some scattered showers and thunderstorms:

After a seasonal brand of chill for the middle of the week, the setup across the country then starts to skew warmer than normal. Check out the warm shots showing up on the GFS ensembles through the rest of March:

With the warmer air will come several storm systems rolling across the country. Each of these can create thunderstorms from the Plains into our region. The first arrives in about a week from now:

Have a sensational Saturday and take care.

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Showers on the increase

Good Friday to one and all. We have gusty showers rolling across the state, and this is a sign of a much more active pattern. This setup is complete with spring temperatures that are ready to surge back into Kentucky.

Friday’s showers might start with a touch of frozen precipitation this morning. Highs in the afternoon and evening climb into the upper 40s to near 50:

region:

Showers will pull out of town on Saturday, with a seasonal chill in the air. That won’t last long, with temps on the rise for Sunday. Highs will reach the 50s in many areas, with 60s in the west.

This sets the stage for a much milder surge on Monday. Many areas have a shot at 70:

That’s ahead of a cold front that brings showers and some storms in Monday night and Tuesday:

The chill behind that stays to our north, with a small cool-down for the middle of the week. From there, highs should work back into the 60s to near 70 by the end of the week. That’s ahead of another system that brings showers and storms our way late in the week:

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Spring slowly shows up again

Good Thursday, everyone. After some of the lowest mid-March temps you will ever find around here, our overall temperature pattern is looking up. Spring weather slowly begins to show up again in the coming days.

Our day starts in the teens and ends with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s in many areas. Skies will stay partly to mostly sunny.

Clouds will quickly thicken Thursday night, with showers arriving Friday. That’s ahead of a cold front that sweeps in Friday night and early Saturday with a seasonal chill behind it.

Milder winds will blow Sunday and Monday, with highs Monday looking warmer and warmer. Several models now have highs in the 70s in the west:

Most of the state should surge well into the 60s at least.

Late-day showers and thunderstorms will increase along another cold front dropping in from the northwest:

The cold air coming behind that front should give us only a glancing blow for the middle of the week. Much milder air is now showing up for the end of next week as southwesterly winds crank:

Those temps may be ahead of a potent storm system that has a strong to severe thunderstorm look to it:

Here’s another showing up on the models a few days after that:

The two week rainfall forecast map from the GFS shows the action targeting our region into the Deep South:

Once our winter interlude is over, the seasonal setup continues to scream “severe weather!” in our region.

Have a great day and take care.

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Slowly getting better

Good Wednesday to one and all. We are dealing with a frigid air mass that is about as cold as you can possible get for this time of year. The good news is, our temps can only get warmer from here! 🙂

Highs Wednesday will top out in the upper 20s to low 30s in many areas. Northwesterly winds could usher in more snow showers and flurries for the region:

Thursday morning lows can get way down into the low and middle teens in many areas. The GFS is more mid- and upper teens:

The Canadian even shows some single digits but is probably too cold:

As you can see, this cold goes all the way into Florida.

Temps climb later Thursday into Friday, and highs should hit the 50s to end the week. That comes with a wet price as showers move in again.

Those showers are ahead of a cold front that brings a quick cold shot for Saturday, and that could be complete with some snowflakes:

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s in most areas.

Milder winds will blow Sunday, with a return of highs in the 50s. Most of the region will hit 60 by Monday as a cold front drops in from the north. That should bring some gusty showers our way:

The models are now keeping that front just to our north, allowing for the milder air to win the fight into the middle of next week. That might set the stage for a fairly potent storm system. Here’s the European:

The GFS has more of a severe weather look:

It’s early, but let’s hope the milder signal for next week is something that comes to fruition!

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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