Colder winds blowing today

Good Tuesday to one and all. Our cold front continues to push to our east and we have a much colder wind blowing behind it. This ushers in a seasonal chill for the next few days, then we start to focus on a system by the end of the week or weekend.

Let’s begin with today. Areas of eastern Kentucky may still see a shower or two around early this morning. If that’s the case, this action will show up on your regional radar:

A mix of sun and clouds will be noted for the rest of the region as temps only make it into the 50s for the bulk of the afternoon. Gusty winds will make it feel chillier than that.

Wednesday into Thursday continue to look really nice! Seasonal highs in the 60s look to be the case.

Our weekend system continues to show up differently on the models, but I’m strongly leaning toward the European and Canadian solutions. They feature a slow-moving storm coming out of the deep south with gusty winds, heavy rain and chilly air:

The European is getting faster with that system as it sheds the bias of holding energy back. That also impacts the next system coming behind that into the middle of next week. That system will be on the leading edge of arctic air pouring into the country. Look what the new EURO cranks out across the Ohio Valley:

What’s interesting is that most models are locking in on the cold, but vary on the chance for winter precip showing up by the end of the month into the start of November. Look at the arctic cold numbers on the Canadian as close out October:

Those numbers are for an October morning, folks. Wow.

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Tracking the strong storms threat

Good Monday to one and all. A powerful fall cold front is sweeping across the state and will bring a line of showers and storms to the region today. Some of these storms may even be strong or severe before all is said and done.

This line of storms should move into central and eastern Kentucky later this afternoon into this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has our part of the world in the Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather today:

Damaging wind will be the primary player as the storms race in from the west. In addition to the high wind potential, these storms may put down a quick 1″-2″ of rain in some areas.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Cold air comes in behind this system for Tuesday as gusty winds add to the chill. Wednesday and Thursday look pretty darn nice, then we wait to see what happens with the late week/weekend system.

As we’ve talked about, the models are struggling with how to handle this feature. We find the European Model and the GFS Model both showing their well known biases, which are polar opposite of one another.

The European Model often holds too much energy back to our southwest, but it has been consistent in doing so with the upcoming storm. That makes for a major, slow-moving storm system that brings chilly, heavy rains and gusty winds:

This run of the Euro shows a lot of rain over the next 7 days:

While the European Model often holds too much energy back, the GFS is often way too progressive in this type of setup. Look at the night and day difference from the above Euro:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Strong storms for Monday

Good Sunday, everyone. As we get ready to wrap up the weekend, we are focusing on a potent cold front ready to sweep across the state on Monday. That may even produce some strong to severe storms across the area.

Sunday is a windy and mild day and I can’t rule out a stray shower. As the day wears on, clouds filter in ahead of the Monday system. The signal for strong storms has been there for a while and now the SPC has the entire state in a Marginal Risk for severe storms:

That may very well get bumped up to a Slight Risk later tonight. Damaging winds will be the number one player with the ling of storms as it races eastward. These storms will also be big rain makers and could put down 1″-2″ of rain for some:

The late week system continues to show up a big different with each model run. The latest run of the GFS matches the Euro with a slow-moving system that would bring a lot of rain, wind and very chilly air in here:

The pattern is then loaded with a winter look for the final week of October into early November. How this evolves with individual systems remains to be seen, but this continues to be a cold look on the Ensembles:

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Changes on the way

Good Saturday, folks. We are rolling through the weekend with a lot going on in the overall weather pattern. Things are about to get pretty active and that could start this weekend for some areas.

Tropical Storm Nestor continues to churn toward the Florida Panhandle and should make landfall early today. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

This storm heads toward the Carolinas, but will throw some rain into Kentucky. The main area will be across the southeast. Here’s the rainfall map from the NAM:

Here are your radars for the day:

This sets the stage for a very strong cold front to blast the state on Monday. Showers and storms become widespread and some of the storms may be on the strong side and produce high winds:

Heavy rainfall is also likely with these storms.

Temperatures come down quickly on a gusty northwest wind behind the departing front. After a rebound in the numbers, we focus on the next system rollin in by the end of the week into next weekend. The models continue to vary on how to handle this, but they all agree on some cold air getting involved in a low pressure system:

The cold look continues to show up very strongly on the operational models and the ensembles. Check out how far below normal the average the numbers get from the 21 member GFS ensembles:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Nice weather starts the weekend

Good Friday, folks. We are rolling into the weekend on a really nice weather note for central and eastern Kentucky. You need to get out and take advantage of this because things change very quickly by Monday.

Let us begin with the weather out there today. Temps will be in the upper 20s and low 30s with afternoon temps into the 60s. Skies will stay partly to mostly sunny. This should make for a perfect day at Keeneland and it looks great for high school football action.

Saturday will see a few clouds rolling in as gusty southwesterly winds kick in. Temps should reach 70-75 degrees for highs. That’s some good stuff!

Friday into Saturday continue to look very, very good. Milder winds will be blowing as we watch a tropical system down in the Gulf. This heads toward the Florida Panhandle then toward the Carolinas. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

That may throw a little rain into the eastern half of the state, especially the southeast, late Saturday into early Sunday:

Monday is an interesting day with a powerhouse of a cold front sweeping eastward across the state. This will bring high winds and the potential for strong storms:

Some very heavy rains will be associated with these storms, adding to our already above normal rains this fall.

Much colder air sweeps in behind this front, likely knocking highs back into the 50s for Tuesday.

Additional blasts of cold are setting up for the rest of the month and this pattern is likely to maintain itself deep into November. We’ve been talking about this for a long time now. Can we get an early taste of winter weather out of this setup? Yes.

Let’s focus on the system coming in late next week. The new Euro shows a potent storm becoming cutoff over top of us:

That air under that system shows up as cold enough to produce flakes:

Every pattern now agrees with this much colder than pattern. Even the often conservative Euro Ensembles show a series of deep troughs into the eastern part of the country through Halloween:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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A small break in the active setup

Good Thursday, everyone. We have some really nice weather out there for the next few days, but our active pattern starts to crank again late this weekend. This will lead to potent cold fronts and a pretty darn cold looking setup for the final few weeks of October.

We begin with today and the seasonal chill we have in the air. Temps may not get out of the 50s for many areas as we keep a mix of sun and clouds. This sets the stage for the potential for a light freeze overnight into areas that see clear skies. The models have several areas going below freezing:

You can see areas where the model believes will keep the clouds. If the clouds linger longer, temps stay up several degrees.

Friday looks phenomenal with temps mainly in the 60s and a mix of sun and clouds. Soak it up!

Our weekend forecast has a lot do with what happens in the Gulf of Mexico. I was telling y’all a few days ago that something tropical may get cranking here and sure enough, that looks to be the case. Regardless of how strong it gets, this is one moisture rich system.

That system likely heads toward the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. Here are the tracks from the Hurricane Models:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_tracks_latest.png

Some offshoot rain, at least, from this may make it all the way into the bluegrass state from late Saturday into Sunday. The best chance would be across the eastern half of the state.

Our next system then comes at us quickly on Monday in the form of a potent cold front. This is going to be a very active front with high winds and the potential for a line of strong storms sweeping eastward across the state:

Much colder air comes in behind that and this looks to become the common theme for the rest of the month:

The European Ensembles continue to indicate the flakes potential around here before the month is over:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Tracking a strong cold front

Good Wednesday, everyone. Our cold front is rolling across the state, bringing a HUGE temp drop today. This is the beginning of a very active setup that should bring even chillier air to the region next week.

This front has been well advertised for the past week and it seems ti be behaving itself. Showers and storm start the day but diminish quickly in the east. Here are your radars to follow along:

Winds will be very gusty and could top 40mph at times as the front blows through tonight. Temps behind this boundary will drop in a hurry and it’s flat out chilly on Wednesday. Morning showers should move away from the east and we may even see a bit of clearing before low clouds sweep back in on a strong northwesterly flow. That wind could keep some areas late afternoon temps in the upper 40s. That wind will also add an extra chill to the air.

Thursday and Friday mornings look cold with the potential for many to reach freezing or a little below, especially Friday morning.

The start of the weekend continues to look awesome with milder air pushing in on a southwesterly flow. That flow will also bring some showers and storms in here by Sunday as we get set for a bigger system Monday and Tuesday. Here’s the Euro for Sunday:

That’s when a strong plains storm rolls toward the Great Lakes and drags a cold front across the region. This could bring high winds and strong thunderstorms into Kentucky as it does so:

The air behind that is pretty darn cold and there’s a bigger blast of cold right behind that one. Here’s how the Euro sees that:

Many of the models continue to take on a winter look as we head toward the end of October. Obviously, this is still pretty far down the road, but the signal keeps showing up. The GFS has been advertising this for some time now:

One of the more interesting signals is from the European Ensembles. It shows deep troughs digging into the eastern half of the country through Halloween. The two week snow map shows a flake chance:

Have a great day and take care.

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Big changes blowing in

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a windy and warm day across the region as we get ready for a cold front to rumble across the region. This will bring gusty showers and storms and a huge drop in temps for the next few days.

Let’s begin with today and plow forward. Highs are in the 70s as those southwesterly winds crank. Gusts may reach 30mph at times, especially tonight as the front moves in. Scattered showers and storms may go up, but the greatest concentration rolls from west to east this evening into tonight.

Here are your radars to help you through the day:

Those crashing temps will combine with a northwest wind and leftover clouds and showers to give us a very chilly Wednesday. Temps should have a tough time getting out of the 40s for some areas:

There’s even a wind chill showing up:

This will set the stage for another round of frost and light freeze come Thursday and Friday mornings.

The setup that follows this has a lot of action with it. It’s one that will be pretty mild for a bit as the predominant flow comes from the southwest. This is also a very moist flow with a couple of storm systems rolling our way from the west and southwest. There could even be something tropical trying to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico.

The European Model brings in the first round of showers and storms on Sunday:

The rest of this big storm system then shows up by Monday and Tuesday:

Here’s the GFS:

Much colder air then comes in behind that and this is something we have been targeting since back in September. Many of the analogs I outlined for you guys did have a distinct turn to colder than normal and even some winter weather in late October.

That’s exactly what the GFS keeps showing in some form or fashion. Here’s the latest run for late next week:

The Ensembles have really flipped to showing this deepening trough across the east over the next few weeks…

EURO

GFS

Make it a  great day and take care.
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Another big blast of chill ahead

Good Monday, folks. We’re coming off a weekend that featured frosty conditions for most of the bluegrass state as temps hit the freezing mark and below. As we kick off the new week, we are watching another big blast of chill rolling our way.

Let’s start with our Monday and look ahead. Temps out there today are back into the 65-70 degree range for many. Skies stay partly sunny, but  a few clouds increase later today.

Our Monday looks awesome with a chilly morning and mild afternoon. Clouds will filter in during the afternoon as we get ready for our winter looks setup for late Tuesday into Wednesday. A potent system dives in from the northwest and brings a shot of October chill with it. At the same time, low pressure develops to our south and hooks up with the disturbance from the northwest. This cranks out a big storm going up the east coast:

That brings showers and a few storms to us late Tuesday and Tuesday night with some wraparound clouds and showers possible into Wednesday. If the clouds hang tough, that’s a cold day with temps that may not get out of the 40s for many areas:

Another frost and a light freeze would then be possible by Thursday and Friday mornings.

Temps should rebound quickly by the weekend as another powerhouse of a storm system cranks to our west. This will bring showers and storms our way and the setup may evening produce a few strong storms. As that passed by, watch the cold surge back in:

You can see a second surge of cold on the way at the tail end of that run of the European Model.

The European Model is showing quite a bit of rain over the next 10 days:

The GFS Ensembles are showing above normal rainfall over these next two weeks:

It would be something to see this fall average above normal rainfall as a whole, even with the record driest September factored in. Extremes, my friends.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Frost finds Kentucky

Good Sunday to one and all. Most folks are waking up to a widespread frost across the bluegrass state. This is finally some good news for allergy sufferers! Woot! This is part of a very chilly pattern that will be with us through the upcoming week.

Temps this morning are in the frosty low 30s for many, with some upper 20s possibly showing up.

Sunny skies will be noted this afternoon with temps hitting the 60s.

Monday looks like another picture perfect fall day with readings in the 60s as a few clouds increase. Those clouds are ahead of our next system rolling in here for Tuesday and Wednesday. This is a winter looking system with energy diving in from the northwest, meeting up with low pressure coming out of the south. Those two hook up to form a big storm along the east coast:

That brings in a similar cold shot compared to the one we have now. Frosty mornings and chilly afternoons will be noted behind this system.

Temps look to rebound by next weekend as moisture quickly increases. The latest GFS shows a nice rainmaker ahead of another cold shot:

Obviously, that model shows a shot at winter weather across parts of the region. The GFS has been hinting at this for a while now, but it varies on exactly when. The run from earlier Saturday had the chance a few days after the above run:

The models really really like some of those October analog years I posted about back in September. Maybe they were on to something?

Make it a good one and take care.

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