A nasty weekend setup

Good Thursday, everyone. We have another massive storm system moving our way for the upcoming weekend. This will bring everything from the potential for flooding to some snow and ice.

Before we get to that point, we have a MUCH weaker system moving in today. This is mainly a light rain maker, but a touch of light snow or a mix is possible in the north. Here are your Thursday tracking tools:

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

My view on the weekend system really hasn’t changed much at all. It’s a setup that should deliver all modes of precipitation to the bluegrass state. Saturday brings heavy rain with the potential for flooding. Temps crash Saturday evening with rain changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, then snow. Snow showers and squalls would then carry us through Sunday afternoon.

Let’s rank the weekend based on greatest impact potential:

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The European Model has been the absolute most consistent model, showing a very similar scenario with each run from the past few days:

The model snowfall map continues to be on the high side compared to all other models, but it has been slowly sinking south:

Again, that’s only a model run, so don’t get too terribly attached to it just yet. Let’s see it can get a few friends to agree with it before we totally jump in feet first… Or head first. 🙂

The European is also consistent on the amount of arctic air sweeping in here. Since the model has a snow pack across the state, it gets a little crazy with the Sunday night lows:

Again, lows like that would ONLY happen with a snow pack and clear skies. Let’s wait and see on that, but the rest of that cold is about right.

The closest model to the European is the new version of the GFS. This model is just beginning to see the second low idea, but it’s slower getting there:

With a slower evolution to the second low, it’s more disjointed with the snow forecast, but does show a healthy swath possible:

That brings us to the GFS. This poor model has the least amount of precipitation of any model and is the fastest of any model, by far:

Watch for that model to slow things down with future runs. That means your app forecasts will have some big swings on them since many are based off the GFS.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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More winter weather ahead

Good Wednesday, folks. Cloudy and cold with snow flurries. That’s basically been the weather of the week, so far, but things are about to become much more active. We have three different systems set to impact our weather in the coming days. It’s the weekend one that may bring everything but the kitchen sink our way.

Let’s start with a weak front dropping in early today. This front will touch off scattered rain and snow showers across parts of the region. Some local accumulations are possible once again.

The next system then arrives on Thursday in the form of a weak low pressure working west to east across the state. That one brings mainly rain, but we are seeing a bit colder solution coming into play. This is likely because the models are just now sensing the deep snow pack across the Ohio Valley. Keep that in mind for the weekend storm.

Watch how the HI Res NAM produces snow showers tomorrow, then has some snow with the Thursday system across the north:

As we get closer to this system, the forecast numbers from the model have come down and I suspect it’s because they are just now sensing the extent of the aforementioned snow pack.

Just because they’re colder for this first system doesn’t necessarily mean they will have the same issue with the weekend setup. But, it does give us something to think about and that’s why I’ve thrown that out there for the past few days.

As of this writing, the NAM only goes through Saturday morning. While it’s not terribly reliable from this range, it is showing the storm starting much farther south than many medium range models have been suggesting:

My thought process has been that we get two lows out of this weekend system. One develops and works into southeastern Kentucky Saturday, with a second low developing east or southeast of it by Saturday night. In that scenario, we would have the potential for flooding rains Saturday, with mix threat north, then a quick change to freezing rain sleet and snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snow showers and squalls would then be around Sunday afternoon on a strong northwest wind. Even if that theory is correct, it’s still too early for any specific totals of each precipitation type. Any amount of snow or ice depends on a ton of variables, so let’s just hang tight and watch the trends of the next few days. Do not short change the potential for high water ahead of any frozen stuff.

The European Model is back to showing what it had a few days ago, which is a colder solution that basically follows the outline I just gave:

The latest GFS also came a little farther south and has the 2 low scenario:

The UKMET only gives us 24 hour increments and doesn’t spit out the fancy maps like the other models. Still, it continues with a farther south storm track. These maps represent Friday evening, Saturday evening and Sunday evening:

The Canadian Model is not on board with the farther south scenario, but is showing some weird jumps with the low pressure:

That’s probably a sign the model is seeing different pressure falls, but doesn’t quite know how to handle them all.

The new version of the GFS is also still north:

As always, time will tell.

Have a good one and take care.

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All eyes on the weekend

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another cloudy and cold day with a few flakes flying across central and eastern Kentucky. As we roll into later this week and into the weekend, things ramp up in a hurry with another winter storm targeting the region. This may bring a lot of different precipitation types our way.

Let’s begin with today. Temps are hanging in the low 30s with some flakes or patchy freezing drizzle. In the overall scheme of things, this action is pretty light.

A weak cold front drops in Wednesday with a light shower of rain or snow.

Another system then zips across the state on Thursday, bringing light rain to many. This may actually begin and end as a touch of frozen precipitation.

How far south does the boundary behind that set up? That’s the big question over the next few days because the weekend winter storm is going to ride that boundary. The models go back and forth on the exact placement of the front and subsequent storm track.

Regardless, this storm is going to produce a lot of precipitation in our region. Anything from flooding rains to significant snow and ice, or all three, are possible Saturday and Sunday. It’s simply way too early to get more specific than that.

This weekend’s winter storm is going to be headline making system for a significant portion of the country. An arctic boundary sags into the Ohio Valley by Saturday as a couple of lows ride northeast along it. Exactly where that boundary sets up won’t be known for a few more days, but that’s the key player in determining the weather in your backyard.

All modes of precipitation are on the table this weekend, but the early signal is for heavy rain and local high water issues giving way to the potential for freezing rain and snow as arctic temps crash in.

The European Model continues to show this well…

As I’ve mentioned for the past few days, the most awesome part of this setup for me is the temperature swing. 60 to single digits in less than 24 hours? That’s certainly a possibility. Watch the bottom drop out…

In addition to the potential for freezing rain and snow Saturday night into Sunday, that quick of a temperature drop following that much rain could lead to a big time ice up. It’s been a while since this region experienced a true flash freeze.

Another aspect of this setup… The wind. Gusts of 40mph or greater may show up as the cold crashes in…

Many of you are just want snow and I totally get that. But, if you’re a true fan of weather like myself, all the action packed into this weekend is pretty awesome to see. Oh and you may even get some snow out of it if you play nice. 😉

Here’s a little looksee at some of the other models:

New GFS

Canadian

Areas getting snow and ice on the ground have a legit shot at zero by Monday morning with a wind chill even colder than that.

Another storm system will try to develop behind that one a few days later. This could also unleash another round of arctic air. Some of the model numbers later in the month are way, way down…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Active weather rolls on

Good Monday, folks. Our super active weather pattern continues across the region, with the increasing threat for another big system this coming weekend. Between now and then, temps take a little ride with a smaller system zipping in.

Let’s start with our Monday and roll forward.

The day is starting with a touch of light snow and freezing drizzle. This may cause slick spots on area roads as temps are in the 20s. Leftover flurries hang around this afternoon with temps around freezing.

Here’s regional radar:

Seasonally cold temps are with us over the next few days, then a quick hitting system zips across the state by Thursday. That looks like a mainly rain maker, but it may be close:

Our weekend storm system continues to look like a monster system, capable of producing all modes of precipitation across the bluegrass state. The European Model continues to look like February 2003 storm that hammered Kentucky:

Here’s hoping the European is wrong on all fronts because it’s cranking out a ton of precipitation.

That’s a lot of arctic air coming in with this storm system. For areas having snow and ice on the ground, the numbers may tank. The European temps:

The GFS is more progressive with this system and spits out less precipitation:

That would be basically rain to snow with bitter cold coming in. The GFS suggests temps go from the 50s to near zero in roughly 24 hours:

Another system tries to follow that up a few days later:

Rounds of arctic air keep diving into the country as our southern stream remains active:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Winter Weather Continues

Good Sunday, folks. Our nasty weekend of winter weather rolls on with more rain and some snow out there today. We’ve had every form of precipitation this weekend, so what’s another day or two with more?

The best chance for additional accumulating snows early today will be across northern parts of the state. Here are the current Winter Weather Alerts:

As that pulls away, one small disturbance is leftover for late Sunday into Monday morning. This will be a light mix and light snow maker than can put down light accumulations across, especially southeastern Kentucky:

Temps rebound quickly by the middle of the week before another system moves in with rain by Friday. That takes us into next weekend and another potent setup. The European Model presses arctic air in here with a storm system developing along the boundary:

That’s a snow signal from the lower Mississippi Valley through our region and into the Mid-Atlantic.

The Canadian has a similar look:

The new version of the GFS is also similar but has two storms:

The GFS has the same look, but is, predictably, farther east:

The model does follow that up with another potent storm that unleashes brutal cold on the country:

The funny thing is… Something like that is totally plausible in the pattern taking shape. It’s uncanny how this is evolving in relation to the winter forecast and my analog years.

You’re really going to be hard pressed to ever find a colder look on the Ensembles than what they’re giving us over the next few weeks:

I leave you with your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking winter weather

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s a wicked weather day across central and eastern Kentucky with accumulating snow, rain and a mix of rain and snow impacting the region. This action looks to take us all the way through Sunday and Sunday night.

Here are a few thoughts to begin the day:

  • This band of snow is lifting into northern Kentucky through the morning.
  • Snowfall with goes from very little in the south to higher numbers in the north, especially areas of east-central Kentucky and north.
  • Some snow covered roads are likely early on.
  • As that band lifts our. temps rise above freezing for areas along and south of Interstate 64 by early afternoon.
  • Light rain takes over for the southern half of the state as the next wave moves in later today into tonight. This rain continues for areas south of 64 with rain and snow along the 64 corridor. More snow falls in the north.
  • Where does the evening and overnight band of accumulating snow set up across the northern half of the state? That may be a constant nowcast.
  • Most areas should see whatever is left switching to a little light snow on Sunday.

I have you loaded with Saturday snow tracking toys:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Have a great day and take care.

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Winter storm update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on the winter storm pushing into the region from the west. Things remain on track for a decent snowfall for many areas to start the weekend, with more of a messy mix later Saturday and Sunday.

Here’s a look at the current snowfall forecast through Saturday morning:

The current Winter Weather Alerts:

The forecast for Saturday through Sunday still appears to feature accumulating snow in the north with rain for much of the southern half of the state. That snow line may dip into the Interstate 64 corridor Saturday evening and night and that’s something to watch for:

A lighter brand of snow and rain will be with us later Sunday into Sunday, but I can’t rule out some light accumulations:

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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Winter weather rolls in tonight

Good Friday to one and all. Our winter storm is working toward the region, bringing a round of snow to much of the area tonight and early Saturday. From there, we see a nice battle setting up between rain and snow.

Snow should develop across western Kentucky by late afternoon and will roll toward central Kentucky by late evening or into the wee hours of Saturday morning. This will bring a wet snowfall to much of the area, with the greatest amounts across the northern and western sections:

Here’s my latest call for snowfall through Saturday morning…

Will that be perfect? Nope, but it’s a rough estimate of how this may play out.  Again, those lines may go a bit north or south depending on how the day plays out. I will update that map a little later on.

Here’s a look at the current Winter Weather Alerts:

A quick check on what the models are showing through around noon on Saturday, finds some impressive numbers.

Here’s the Hi Res NAM

The NAM

Short range Canadian

Canadian

European

GFS

For the rest of the weekend, my thoughts remain pretty much unchanged. The best chance for snow is across the northern parts of the state, with rain across the southern half and a buffer zone in the middle. That’s the zone that could go either way from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday:

A degree or so will make a big difference in where the rain vs. snow line sets up.

I leave you with regional radar to track the snow from the west:

Make it a good one and take care.

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A wintry weekend ahead

Good Thursday, folks. Winter is back in the bluegrass state as cold temps and snow flurries continue. These flurries are the opening act to a much bigger system arriving this weekend, bringing accumulating snow and a messy mix to the region.

Let’s begin with today. Wind chills are frigid with high single digits to low teens to start the day, and low 20s to end it. Snow showers are putting down light accumulations across central and eastern Kentucky and that could cause a few slick roads early today.

Here’s your regional radar:

This is the opening act to our weekend winter storm. I’m still rolling with this general theme:

Again, all of that is subject to be moved a little farther north or south with future updates today and Friday.

Here’s a breakdown of how things stand:

  • This is a Friday night through Sunday night event that may actually include 3 different waves of precipitation.
  • The first wave arrives from west to east late Friday evening into Saturday morning and is mainly in the form of snow. This likely delivers accumulations to areas of western, central and northern parts of the state. Some of that may make it into the east and southeast.
  • That Friday night/Saturday morning setup has a chance to overachieve.
  • There may be a lull in precipitation for a time Saturday afternoon and evening, with mainly rain falling across the southern half of the state. That rain line may get as far north as the Interstate 64 corridor for a time.
  • As the second low passes to our southeast Saturday night and early Sunday, the next wave of precipitation really kicks in. This may still be in rain form across the southern half of the state, with snow across the northern half.
  • A third, weaker, system develops Sunday night into Monday with light snow across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Given the fact this will be a roughly 3 day event, snow depth may never actually match snowfall. I haven’t even mentioned any kind of totals at this point, but should have a First Call For Snowfall around noon or so.
  • Moral of the story, the farther north you go in the state, the better the chance for several inches of snow. The farther south, that potential goes way, way down.
  • NONE OF THIS MEANS YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WHERE YOU LIVE. 🙂

Let’s do a quick check of what the various computer models are showing. The European Model keeps spitting out a decent hit for much of the region, with the emphasis on the northern half of the state. Here are two different snowfall maps from the same run. One uses the standard 10 to 1 ratio while the other uses the Kuchera ratio:

10-1

Kuchera Ratio

Keep in mind those are snowfall numbers through Monday.

The Canadian Model is in very good agreement with the European:

The NAM is a funky model with snow setups like this because it loves to overdue warm air advection, which leads to anomalously high precipitation totals. The run only goes through Sunday morning, but fell in love with north central Kentucky:

Again, the NAM is VERY likely overdoing things and is the model voted most likely to have wild swings from run to run. 🙂

That brings us to the GFS, which seems to be having issues of the opposite kind. It continues to run much drier with this storm than every other model. It’s snow shield looks undercooked in all areas on the map:

Have a great day and take care.

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The cold leads to weekend winter weather

Good Thursday, folks. Old Man Winter has rolled back into the bluegrass state, bringing cold temps and a few flurries. As we head into the upcoming weekend, it’s all eyes on a developing winter storm that will likely bring snow our way.

Before we get to that system, let’s concentrate on what’s going on out there today. Highs are hanging in the low 30s, but gusty winds make it feel closer to 20 degrees. I can’t even rule out a couple of flurries or snow showers, especially across the east:

Thursday looks like another cold and windy day with highs around freezing and a wind chill down in the low 20s. The day may actually start with a wind chill around 10 degrees.

Our weekend winter storm system starts to impact our weather Friday night and looks to continue through the weekend.

  • This system is different than the systems we’ve had over the past month. It has cold air already in place and a cold high to the north.
  • The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.
  • This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.
  • Still, the southern half of the state may see this switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.
  • All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.
  • For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.

Here’s a map of my current line of thinking:

Keep in mind those lines may shift north or south over the next few days. An upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT may come later today if confidence comes up just a bit.

As far as the forecast models go, we see them with the same general idea, but they are vastly different with the amount of precipitation across the region.

The European Model isn’t holding back:

The government shutdown is negatively impacting the American models like the GFS and NAM. There’s no one around to maintain these models, so the skill scores are apparently dropping off. So, I guess we have to take them with a grain of salt.

Anyway here’s the GFS:

The average snowfall map from the 21 member GFS Ensembles looks like this:

The Canadian

Have a good one and take care.

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