All eyes on storms for Memorial Day Weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. As a cold front works to our east today, it’s bringing a much better brand of air to our region. This means a few days of nice weather, but that won’t hang around into the big holiday weekend ahead of us. Rounds of showers and storms look to return.

Highs today will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The day may start with a shower or storm in the east, but skies become partly sunny:

Lows by Thursday morning drop into the 50s for the first time in a long, long time. The rest of the day looks really good with temps back into the upper 70s and low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Memorial Day Weekend will kick off with isolated showers and storms developing on Friday, with highs in the 80s. From there, things only look to go downhill.

The unofficial kickoff to summer is Memorial Day weekend and everyone is hoping for nice weather. Pools open, backyards fill with the smell of burgers and dogs on the grill, and lakes are generally packed. None of that may be true this weekend as our pattern looks very active.

For a while, I’ve talked about the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting this region for potential development over the next few days:

As that system works across the Gulf, we will be dealing with a front slowing down across the Ohio valley, setting up a pipeline of tropical moisture from the Gulf into Kentucky. That would lead to rounds of showers and storms starting as early as Friday and continuing into the weekend. What happens with the Gulf system? That may get drawn northward and impact our weather:

With or without the actual remnant low moving over us, plenty of tropical moisture will be around to bring rounds of showers and storms.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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A few storms for Election Day

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s Election Day in the Commonwealth with storms and steamy temps on the weather ballot. The two are running neck and neck entering today, with storms likely coming away with a small victory.

Those scattered storms may, just like the past week, be locally strong or severe. Here’s the updated Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Heavy rains may also cause a few high water issues to develop from time to time. That said, it’s not going to rain all day.

A cold front pushes east of us on Wednesday, allowing for a much better brand of air to slide in here for a couple days. Temps and humidity levels both come way down through Thursday, so let’s soak that up.

Another system dives in here by the weekend, bringing the potential for more showers and thunderstorms. At the same time, a tropical system is trying to develop in the Gulf of Mexico.

Another system approaches the region from the northwest by the Memorial Day weekend. That will bring an increase in showers and storms, as we watch the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where something tropical is likely to develop and it may directly or indirectly influence our weather.

Watch how the models are very stormy and unsettled all the way through next week:

Canadian

GFS

Our incredibly soggy 2018 shows no signs of letting up!

Here are your Election Day tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Happy Election Day and take care.

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More storms start the week

Good Monday, folks. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Rounds of showers and storms are pushing across the region. A few of these storms my be a little on the strong side. As we track the action today, we are also looking ahead toward the long Memorial Day weekend that’s ahead of us.

As always, we start with what’s going on out there today. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s with very muggy air in place. That muggy air will help fuel the fire for showers and storms to go up. Locally heavy rains will be the main player, bringing a renewed high water threat.

Some of the storms may also produce small hail and gusty winds. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Additional showers and storms will be around on Tuesday, with locally heavy rains the main threat. Local high water issues ma be noted at anytime today through Tuesday.

We may actually catch a break in the storms by the middle of the week.

The storm threat increases again as we head into Memorial Day weekend. This is also when something tropical may get going down in the gulf of Mexico. Whatever happens with that system could impact our weather for the big weekend and into next week.

The Canadian Model has a developing storm that heads toward the central Gulf Coast states, then actually takes a ride into Kentucky. It does so by swinging a deepening trough into our region, picking up whatever is down there:

The European Model has the tropical system missing the trough, leaving the system to meander around for days:

The Icon Model looks to be taking a similar route:

I leave you with your Monday storm trackers:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the severe potential

Good Sunday to one and all. We have the potential for strong to severe storms across the region today.  This continues our recent trend of stormy weather, that looks to continue into next week.

One cluster of storms may move in early today, with another possible late this afternoon into the evening. That’s the one that may bring the severe threat to our region. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and large hail are the main players. These storms will be heavy rain makers and may cause additional high water issues.

Additional rounds of storms will be sweeping in here on Monday, potentially bringing another severe weather threat. Here’s the latest from the SPC:

More rounds of storms will likely hang tough through Tuesday, but a little break in the action is possible for a few days after that. Temps will continue to average well above normal, in what is likely to be one of the warmest Mays on record.

By later this week into Memorial Day weekend, a lot of what happens will likely be dictated by what happens in the tropics. Some early season development is possible around Florida or into the Gulf of Mexico. Take all models with a big grain of salt, but it’s fun to see how they handle any POSSIBLE system.

The Canadian takes it into the central Gulf and actually has some impact on our weather:

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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More storms for the weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumble on across Kentucky this weekend, bringing the threat for additional high water issues. This stormy setup appears locked in through next week, at least.

Today’s storms won’t be constant, but will be putting down enough rain to cause local flash flooding problems. A few of the storms may be strong or even severe in the east. This is the area under a minimal severe risk from the Storm Prediction Center:

Another surge of very warm and humid air is pushing in here on Sunday and may be accompanied by some storm clusters rolling in from the west and northwest. A few of these may be strong or severe:

These storms are in response to another low moving in from the northwest, and that will keep rounds of storms going into Monday. Some of those could again be strong or locally severe.

Next week continues the steamy and stormy pattern in our part of the world. If you’re making plans for Memorial Day weekend, much of what happens with our weather may depend on the tropics.

Several models develop some kind of system near Florida:

That’s nothing more than a model signal for now, but it’s interesting to see for the month of May.

Here are your Saturday tracking toys:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking another heavy rain threat

Good Friday, everyone. We are ending the week with additional rounds of showers and storms moving across the area. Just like in the previous days, these storms will put down very heavy rains that can lead to local high water issues.

Today’s storms may have a little extra to work with as low pressure moves in from the southwest. That spin in the atmosphere will combine with a deep inflow of moisture from the south to give us a better shot at heavy rain.

Given how much water has fallen in recent days, we will need to be on heightened alert for the potential of flash flooding.

Here are your high water tracking toys for the day:

Additional showers and storms come our way through the weekend, with strong storms a real possibility. Additional rounds of boomers sticking around through next week. Check out this one week animation from the GFS:

You can also see some kind of tropical system developing near Florida next weekend. The models have been suggesting this for a long time now. The pattern actually favors something there.

Regardless, for us, it’s a lot of rain over the next week:

Remember, those numbers really don’t take into consideration totals you can get from individual thunderstorms.

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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More storms rumble through

Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to target the bluegrass state, with each round bringing heavy rainfall. These additional rounds can put down enough rain to cause local high water issues.

A stationary front continues to wander about the region, helping fire up these storms. As moisture from the south continues to stream in, that ups the ante for locally heavy rain numbers showing up.

Similar to what we have seen over the past few days, local flash flooding issues may develop. Here are the tracking toys for the day:

A disturbance that started in the Gulf of Mexico will influence our weather on Friday. That may bring a slightly better chance for high water producing showers and storms:

The models are spitting out some general 1″-3″ rains, but really don’t take into account local amounts from thunderstorms:

The stormy setup is likely to continue into next week. Watch how the total rain numbers continue to climb:

Again, this is a setup primed to deliver additional flash flooding issues to our part of the world.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Showers and storms increase

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s the middle of the a steamy week, with showers and storms on the increase. As our rain chances come up, our temperatures are going down to more seasonal levels for this time of year.

Today’s storms come at us in a few waves, with dry times in between. Any shower or storm that goes up can be strong and put down some heavy rainfall. As a matter of fact, a local cloudburst can’t be ruled out in this type of setup.

Here are your tracking tools for the day…

With a boundary stalling across the region, this will continue to be the focusing mechanism for additional showers and storms to go up for the rest of the week. There’s also some tropical moisture streaming our way from the Gulf:

Locally heavy rains continue to be the primary player. Some areas can easily pick up 1″-3″ of rain through the upcoming weekend.

Keep in mind, it’s not going to rain all the time and this doesn’t mean it will rain at your house each and every day. It does mean we are in a fairly active pattern that can produce periods heavy rain making thunderstorms.

Next week looks to see a continuation of the stormy setup:

Make it a wonderful day and take care.

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Rounds of storms kick in

Good Tuesday to one and all. The muggy factor is really coming into play out there today and that will lead to some storms going up. This kicks off a very active weather pattern featuring rounds of showers and storms. These boomers can put down some very heavy rains this week.

Highs today generally run in the middle 80s, but the humidity will be way up compared to recent days. Some late day showers and storms will develop, with the potential for a line of storms to drop in from the north by evening.

Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Rounds of showers and storms will continue to come at us for the rest of the week and those may have a tropical influence. We continue to watch a system down in the Gulf:

Watch how the GFS keeps the rounds of storms coming at us:

Locally heavy rains are possible, with some ‘cloudbursts’ possible.

My concern is that this wet pattern is locking in for the early part of summer, at least. Look at the super wet setup on the European Ensembles for the next 6 weeks:

Here are your tracking toys for this Tuesday:

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Storms increase this week

Good Monday to one and all. Our sizzling temps area about to give way to a fairly stormy setup across much of the region. Rounds of showers and storms increase as the week wears on, as we hang on to above normal temps.

Highs today are generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds. A few record highs may be broken.

Some afternoon and evening storms will try to go up, especially across the northern half of the state. Whatever is out there will show up on your radars:

The storm threat will increase starting Tuesday and will take us through the rest of the week. A front stalls across the Ohio Valley, with moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where a tropical system may be developing:

 

Can that become a classified system? That’s certainly a possibility. From there, the European takes the low into eastern Kentucky later this week:

Some heavy rains are likely in that type a setup.

It’s a setup that should continue through next week, too. The rainfall forecast through then shows a very active pattern, with the tropical connection:

That overall precipitation pattern matches up well with the long range European that goes toward the end of June. Check out the expansive area of above normal rains:

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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