A soggy weekend setup

Good Friday, everyone. Our big shopping day isn’t looking as bad as once feared. The rain rolling into the area has slowed a bit and that means another nice day out there for many. The rest of the weekend continues to look as wet as advertised.

Highs today should hit 60 degrees as clouds increase and thicken. Western Kentucky gets in on some showers by the afternoon and those may advance into central Kentucky this evening.


The best rains arrive on Saturday with a pipeline of moisture from the Ohio Valley back to Mexico:

NAMWaves of rain come our way through early next week as the front stalls across the region. Rainfall totals of 1″-3″ through Tuesday still looks likely for much of the bluegrass state:

EuroMuch colder air finally pushes in here by the middle of the week with another system or two trying to scoot through here. This could give us a better shot at some wintry weather. That all depends on just how much cold air we can produce in a pattern that’s skewed warmer than normal at the moment.

I leave you with your regional radar to track the rain into western Kentucky:

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Rain for the weekend

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving! The weather for our big day couldn’t be any better with mild temps and some sunshine. Enjoy this good stuff because rainy changes move as we head into the traditional weekend.

Highs today will be in the upper 50s and low 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be rather gusty and could reach 35-30mph at times.

Black Friday shoppers should be ok for the first half of the day. Once into the evening hours, rain arrives from the west.

That rain then really kicks in for Saturday and Sunday. Here’s the simulated radar for Saturday afternoon:

NAMThe rain will come at us in waves through the first half of next week. A general 1″-3″ rainfall looks to be in the making:

uring this time…

EuroColder air wraps in behind the final wave of low pressure late Tuesday into Wednesday…

Euro 2That could produce a few flakes in doing so.

There is still a good signal for another big storm late next week into the following weekend…

CanadianHave a wonderful Thanksgiving and take care.

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The winter forecast

Good Wednesday, everyone. The long holiday weekend is now off and running with nice weather. That all changes with a lot of rain moving in from Friday into next week.

Since things are rather quiet Wednesday, it’s a good time to offer the winter forecast. Buckle up and let’s roll.

The past two winters here in Kentucky have been about as harsh as they come. From historic cold to historic snowstorms, we had it all. Can we make it three years in a row with brutal winters? That hasn’t happened here since the late 1970s, but it has an outside chance of happening with this winter.

Let me be upfront and clear about something: At this time, I don’t think this winter will be as bad as the past two winters. That doesn’t mean I’m right, but I see several factors working against that.

The two main players I’m watching this winter are both in the Pacific Ocean. The first is a raging El Niño:

WinterTo my eyes, this El Niño is in a class all its own, and that makes for a difficult forecast, because I don’t have years to look back on for guidance.

The warm pool of water off the West Coast has been there since fall 2013:

Winter 2That has been the driving force to our back-to-back harsh winters, but El Nino might mute some of the impact this winter. Might is the key word.

Here’s my month-by-month breakdown:

Winter 4Winter 5Winter 6As you can clearly see, I’m expecting another winter that’s backloaded with the most likely chance for snow and cold:

Winter 8The first half of winter from December into early January is likely to be dominated by a lot of back and forth with the temperatures. Some very mild days and some very cold days will try to balance one another out during this time. Snowfall should be about normal.

Mid January through early March is likely to see the coldest weather relative to normal and the most snow.

One thing to watch for this winter is an increased chance of a wind-driven winter storm.

So what does all this mean for snowfall? The numbers are likely to be much lower than last winter, but they should be normal to a little above normal:

Winter 9All it takes is for one storm to bust those numbers.

Here’s hoping you get all the cold and snow that your little heart desires!

Have a great day and take care.

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Changes by Thanksgiving weekend

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have some very nice weather that carries us through the next few days. That bodes well for all the holiday travelers. Unfortunately, things change in a big way as we get into the weekend.

Highs Tuesday will reach the upper 40s and low 50s in much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Skies will be mostly sunny with just a few clouds streaming in.

Wednesday is a huge travel day, and things look great across our entire region. Highs will be in the 50s with winds and a few increasing clouds. Overall, we really can’t complain.

Thanksgiving Day finds readings in the upper 30s to start and upper 50s to near 60 to end. Clouds will increase later in the day, and winds look rather gusty.

Things turn much more active during this time and that will affect holiday weekend travel. A cold front moves in later Friday and early Saturday, with heavy rain:GFSTemps really drop Saturday as our front slams the brakes on. Low pressure then swings our way from the southwest late in the weekend and early next week:GFS 2How that works exactly remains to be seen, but the potential is there for more heavy rain and some wintry weather. Speaking of heavy rain, the GFS shows that well:GFS RainMake it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Thanksgiving week starts pleasant

Good Monday and welcome to Thanksgiving week. After a wintry weekend in our region, things are looking much better over the next few days. That bodes well for early-week travelers. I cannot say the same for Thanksgiving weekend.

Our Monday is started with mainly clear skies and about 20 degrees. Afternoon highs hit the 40s with fair skies.

Travel weather from Tuesday through Thanksgiving day looks good in much of our region. Temps will become milder as clouds slowly work in. Those clouds are ahead of a slow-moving system that brings heavy rain into the state for Black Friday and Saturday:

Canadian 4

That will knock temps way down compared to what we feel ahead of the front. This is a moisture-rich system with heavy rain from the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley:

Canadian 3

There is a good possibility of seeing an upper-level low cutting off in the west, then rolling our way a few days later. You can see what I’m talking about on the upper-level charts:

Canadian 2

That’s a very strong upper level system showing up. The Canadian Model has this look at the surface:


One could extrapolate that southern low then working up the east coast. That’s the next system to keep a close eye on.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

CFS Euro 2

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Talking turkey week weather

Good Sunday, everyone. A blast of cold air has invaded the bluegrass state on a gusty northwesterly wind flow. This is the coldest air of the season, so far. Is this a sign of things to come for our big Thanksgiving week ahead? Let’s get into it.

Highs on this Sunday will only hit the mid and upper 30s for many areas. Gusty winds will make it feel colder than that. Skies will be partly sunny, but the day can start with a few snowflakes. That’s especially true across the east and southeast:

The holiday week gets started out on a very nice weather note. Monday and Tuesday will feature dry conditions with morning lows in the 20s with afternoon highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

The big travel period starts Wednesday with some clouds increasing. Those clouds are ahead of a big storm developing across the plains states. There could be a stray shower or two blow in late in the day for the western part of the state.

The storm system in the plains is going to slowly push our way late Thanksgiving Day into the long holiday weekend. This is a fairly expansive system that can cause some travel issues for a large part of the country:

Special 2

That’s likely to mean a period of heavy rain on the front end, with the potential for some winter weather as much colder air swings in.

That’s something to keep a close eye on going forward. Make it a great day and take care.

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First flakes possible late Saturday

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a very interesting weather day taking shape across Central and Eastern Kentucky. A powerful cold front sweeps in late in the day with our first real brush with winter weather.

Here’s a breakdown of the day:

  • Partly sunny skies and gusty winds will boost early-afternoon highs in the 50s. A high of 60 is possible in the east.
  • The cold front arrives late in the afternoon with a 20-degree temperature drop coming in behind it.
  • A band of rain and snow showers follows the front into the evening.
  • This is really nothing more than the possibility of seeing the first snowflakes of the season. If you’re looking for anything to stick, keep looking.
  • Leftover snow flurries will be possible Saturday night and Sunday morning, with lows in the low 20s.
  • Highs on Sunday will reach only the 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel colder than that.

I have you all set to track Saturday’s action:

amburg Area from WKYT Studio

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
I-64 @ I-264

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

The Thanksgiving week starts clear and chilly, but it could end with a big storm system affecting our weather. The models are all over the place with how that system works out, but the GFS shows a little of everything:

GFSWe have a lot of time to see how that one plays out.

Until then, let’s see if we will get the first snowflakes of the year before Saturday is over. Take care.

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A touch of winter this weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We have a big blast of cold air coming for the weekend, and this blast is likely to produce the first snowflakes of the season. This isn’t a big deal, but there’s always something exciting about seeing those first flakes fly.

Before we get to the weekend, we have a nice day going on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s with a partly sunny sky.

A strong storm system then moves into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. This is going to produce a major snowstorm for areas to our north through Sunday.

Highs ahead of the front on Saturday will hit the low 50s as clouds quickly increase. Winds will be gusty as temps crash once the front sweeps through. A 20-degree drop in just a few hours is a good bet. Much of the precipitation falls in the colder air behind the front. That means a period of rain and snow showers will be likely:

GFSThat’s a pretty substantial burst of snow showing up on the GFS early Saturday evening. Leftover snowflakes will carry us into Sunday morning in eastern Kentucky.

That’s a big snowstorm for areas to our north:

GFS 2Notice how the GFS suggests some accumulation across Kentucky. I’m not seeing that at the moment, but I can’t rule out a rooftop coating if it snows hard enough.

Wind chills hit the low and mid teens Saturday night and Sunday morning. Brr!

The long-range call for Thanksgiving week is for another storm system to affect our weather. This looks to be during the busy holiday weekend, and you’re now seeing the models going back to what they were showing up until a few days ago. Rain and snow are on the early Thanksgiving weekend weather menu.

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

Euro GFS Euro 3 Euro 2


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Here comes a weekend cold blast

Good Thursday, everyone. The heavy rain and high winds of Wednesday have pushed off to our east. Now we get some decent weather for a few days, but don’t get used to it. The coldest air of the fall season is on the way for the weekend.

Highs Thursday will reach the mid- and upper 50s in many areas with partly sunny skies. Winds will still be gusty as another weak front moves in. It will knock temps down into the low 30s by Friday morning. Afternoon highs will hit the upper 40s to low 50s.

Saturday finds a strong, winter looking, system diving in here. Temps will spike into the upper 40s to low 50s ahead of this front, then drop quickly into the 30s as the front sweeps through. Winds will be very gusty during the big drop.

Several models continue to indicate the potential for a band of rain and snow showers working in behind the boundary:

I have no changes on my Saturday thoughts. A strong cold front dives in from the northwest with a band of rain and snow showers along and behind it:


Temps continue to tank Saturday evening as a strong northwesterly wind kicks in. Throw in the wind and lows near 20, you can get some very cold wind chills showing up late Saturday night:

GFS TempsHighs Sunday will be in the mid- and upper 30s with a mix of sun and clouds, and with morning flurries possible.

Temps stay seasonally cold early next week, with mainly dry weather. That should change as we get into the Thanksgiving weekend with another storm system affecting our region.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking high winds and heavy rain

Good Wednesday, everyone. A powerful storm system is affecting the Bluegrass State. It is bringing heavy rain and high winds to much of our region. As expected, it’s also going to allow more of a winter pattern to unfold in the coming weeks.

Winds today could reach 40 to 45 mph at times ahead of our cold front. A band of heavy rain producing showers and storms works slowly through here from midday into the evening.



Temps start well into the 60s then drop behind the front.

Thursday looks much better, with highs in the 50s and partly sunny skies. Winds will continue to be gusty. Temps Friday will start in the low 30s and rise to the upper 40s by afternoon.

This leads us into a winter-looking system that drops in from the northwest on Saturday. This one is being pushed by a significant blast of cold air and might be introduced by a band of rain and snow showers:

EuroWinds will be very gusty as temps crash through the 30s behind the front. Temps could drop into the upper 20s by late Saturday evening and keep dropping from there:

GFS TempsAS I said, this is some cold stuff coming our way.

Thanksgiving week starts chilly and dry, but a late-week storm system might develop and work our way:

GFS 3We still have a week and change to figure out what happens with that system. For now, let’s take them one at a time.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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