Pattern changes brings storms and cooler temps

Good Monday, everyone. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorm working across the state today ahead of a cold front. This front will usher in cooler and drier air for the middle of the week, but another wet weather maker is on the way later this week.

All of this is part of a very active and cooler pattern taking control of our weather.

Highs today are generally from 80-85, but the humidity remains high. This will help aid in the development of locally heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms. Track all the Monday action:

The actual front sweeps through here later Tuesday with more showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Temps  and humidity levels will tank behind the boundary for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Check out the mid-week highs:

Another system drops in by later Thursday into Friday, and should hang around through the weekend. This is likely an anomalous cutoff low pressure spinning right on top of us:

The end result is unsettled and wet weather:

Temps will continue to run below normal during this time, with a few days coming in WELL below normal:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Storms usher in a big change in temps

Good Sunday to one and all. Showers and storms continue to increase across the land, but our temps are about to go the other direction. This is a cooler than normal pattern taking shape for the week ahead and it may stick around for a while.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. As mentioned, showers and storms will increase during the afternoon and evening, with some of the storms possibly being strong. These storms may also produce torrential rains from time to time.

I have you all set to do some Sunday storm tracking:

Those showers and storms continue on Monday and into Tuesday, with more heavy downpours a good bet. This is ahead of the first cold front dropping in from the northwest:

Much cooler than normal air settles in along and behind the front. Highs on Wednesday may not get out of the upper 70s for some.

Another system then digs in by the end of the week into the weekend, leading to unsettled weather:

GFS

Canadian

That would keep the cooler than normal temperatures going. The shots of cool don’t end there and could grow even cooler against the averages for the following week.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Storms slowly increase

Good Saturday, everyone. Hot and humid weather is back in the bluegrass state to kick off the weekend, but storms are about to crank back up. These boomers will increase ahead of a cold front, bringing a much cooler pattern for the week ahead of us.

Highs are mainly in the upper 80s and low 90s today, with a  heat index hitting the middle 90s. A storm or two may increase this afternoon and evening:

Scattered showers and storms will increase for Sunday as steamy temps roll on. A few of the late day storms may be a little on the strong side, and those strong storms return on Monday. Some heavy rains will be noted with this action along and ahead of a cold front dropping in:

Cooler air shows up along and behind that boundary:

Another system then develops and works in here by Thursday and Friday, bringing more showers and thunderstorms. There is some indication of a system trying to close off near us:

That would certainly keep the below normal temps coming. As a matter of fact, the CFS continues to see the cooler than normal rest of July:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Big changes on the way

Good Friday, folks. Our weekend is kicking off with some very steamy mid-July temps and that looks to roll on through the weekend. Thunderstorms will eventually join the mix, ahead of a major pattern change moving in next week.

Highs today will range from the upper 80s to near 90 for most of central and eastern Kentucky. Skies stay dry, but humidity levels inch up just a bit.

Saturday should see many areas in the upper 80s and low 90s, with a heat index making it feel a few degrees hotter. This is nothing like our 4th of July week

Scattered showers and storms will increase by the afternoon and evening:

Showers and storms become likely Sunday through Tuesday as a strong cold front dives in from the northwest:

Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread Sunday into early next week ahead of our first cold front dropping in:

Strong storms are possible in that type of a setup, but the cool shot coming in behind it will be pretty awesome:

Another system will then dive in behind this by the end of the week, bringing more showers and storms and a bigger push of cool.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Summer sizzle to storms

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s a much better feeling day across central and eastern Kentucky, but that’s not going to last very long. A little sizzle is back in the weekend forecast as we get set for bigger changes showing up next week.

Highs today are in the low and middle 80s in much of the area, with lower humidity giving the air a comfortable feel. Friday will find some steamy stuff slowly returning. Highs range from 85-90 in most areas. Skies should stay mostly sunny.

Saturday will turn even hotter with upper 80s and low 90s showing up. A few storms may also pop during the afternoon and evening. Storm chances will then rapidly increase from Sunday into early next week. That’s when a strong cold front starts to impact our weather.

Check out the increase in stormy weather during this time:

This action is ahead of the first of two cold fronts set to impact our weather next week. The second front arrives late next week into the following weekend. Watch the waves of below normal temps take over:

Both of those will knock the numbers down, but it’s a fundamental shift in the overall pattern that’s very common during a developing El Nino.

Everything from the operational models to the ensembles are locking in on this change taking place. I’ve also posted several seasonal models showing the transition and we can add the CAS to the mix. Here’s the model forecast for August-October:

Have a good one and take care.

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Nice temps before some more sizzle

Good Wednesday, everybody. We have a weak cold front working across the state today, bringing a better brand of air and some scattered storms. This brand of air isn’t going to last very long, with steamy conditions blowing back in by the weekend.

Highs today are in the low and middle 80s with humidity decreasing from north to south. The slow movement of the front will keep a few showers and storms around, with the greatest concentration showing up across the southern half of the state:

Thursday looks like a very nice day with highs in the 80s and low humidity levels. That changes on Friday as highs reach the upper 80s to around 90 for many, with low 90s west. Humidity is also on the increase. That may fire up isolated storms here or there.

Saturday looks steamy with highs in the low 90s for many across the state, but with isolated  boomers blossoming. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will really increase late Sunday into early next week ahead of a big push of cooler air:

The air behind this front will knock the numbers way down for much of the country. It’s not just the operational models showing this, the Ensembles continue to be locked in. Here are the European Ensembles 5 day average:

The evolution of this pattern continues to be one toward a cooler than normal second half of summer for much of the region.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Tracking another cold front into Kentucky

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s all eyes on another cold front dropping into the region from the north. This boundary is bringing an increase in the threat for storms and will bring a decrease in the temps behind it.

Highs today are generally in the upper 80s with scattered storms going up. As the front nears by evening, a broken line of storms will drop in from the north. A few of those storms may be on the strong side. Here’s your regional radar to track the action:

Slightly cooler than normal air blows in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday with skies staying in pretty good shape. There is still a slight chance for a shower or storm early on Wednesday, especially across our southern counties. The same front is helping steer Chris away from the east coast:

cone graphic

Temperatures by later this week will toast back up with some scattered storms joining the party by the weekend. The stormy action looks to increase next week as temps decrease.

The European Ensembles are also locking in on this cool shot showing up next week:

It’s the time of year I start to really take a look at the overall setup leading up to fall and winter. The first place I look to is the Pacific Ocean. You often hear me talk about El Nino or La Nina and the impacts they can have on our weather. El Nino is abnormal warming of the waters around the equator, while La Nina is abnormal cooling of those same waters.

The mistake many folks make when talking about El Nino or La Nina is by not looking at the placement of each event. In many cases, placement often plays a bigger role than strength. The Nino regions are broken up into 4 areas:

This year, we are seeing the seasonal models pointing toward a weak El Nino developing in region 3.4. You can see this spike in the tri-monthy forecast through the winter:

Region 1+2 is forecast to be much cooler compared to normal and compared to region 3.4:

Why is that important? History tells us that when region 3.4 is warmer than region 1+2, it increases the risk for colder winters across the eastern half of the country. When 1+2 is warmer than 3.4, our winters have a greater chance to be warmer than normal.

What do all those squiggly lines actually look like on a map? Here is the December-February Sea Surface Temperature anomaly forecast from the CFS:The boxed area shows the greatest anomalies showing up in region 3.4. You will also notice the warmer than normal water along the west coast of North America leading to our infamous warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska. That warm pool can be a big driver to help pump a ridge into Alaska and western Canada, forcing a trough into the eastern part of the country.

So, as I start my preliminary look into the upcoming fall and winter, those two things really stand out in a big way. Winter weather lovers should like the sound of that.

 

 

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Changes for the week ahead

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off an absolutely gorgeous weekend of weather for central and eastern Kentucky. This nice air is about to muggy up a little, with an increase in showers and storms to follow.

You will notice an increase in humidity today as highs reach the mid and upper 80s. Scattered showers and storms will go up this afternoon and evening, especially across the central and west. Track away:

A cold front drops in from the north late Tuesday, giving us a better threat for showers and storms:

That front may slow down just to our south on Wednesday, keeping isolated showers and storms going for some. The air behind this boundary is cooler and drier than what we have now:

 

Temps rebound by the end of the week and into the coming weekend. The seasonal numbers will help fuel scattered storms developing during the same time.

There are signs of a deepening trough trying to take over the pattern later next week or into the following week:

If that’s the case, it would send much of the country into a cooler than normal setup for a spell. This is actually common for developing El Nino summers.

Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.

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Showers and storms start to show back up

Good Sunday, folks. Our weekend has been nothing short of amazing, but an increase in thunderstorms is slowly returning. A few of those storms will fire up later today, with much better chances coming in the days ahead.

Highs for your Sunday will generally be in the low and middle 80s. Watch for an increase in scattered storms this afternoon and evening, especially across the western half of the state. Here are your Sunday storm trackers to follow the scattered stuff:

Showers and storms will increase on Monday, with the potential for a few strong storms and torrential rains:

You can see Chris spinning off the east coast at the same time. That system should get shunted to the north and northeast:

cone graphic

Guess what is pushing that away from the coast? Another cold front dropping into the eastern half of the country. This front slides in here late Tuesday with strong storms ahead of it and pleasant air behind it:

Wednesday and Thursday are likely below normal once again.

Seasonal temps return for next weekend, but there continues to be a strong indication of a deepening trough taking control of much of the country after that:

If that’s the case, below normal temperatures would become more common for a lot of real estate:

That’s a pattern the seasonal models have been signaling for a while now and fits the analog years of a developing El Nino.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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A much better feeling weekend

Good Saturday, folks. The weather today is MUCH better than what we have been dealing with over the past few weeks. You can actually breathe outside as the heat and humidity finally move away. Even in this different temperature pattern, we can’t shake the risk for a few showers and storms.

Highs on this Saturday will be in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity levels are way down there, giving us that comfortable feel to the air. That said, there is still the threat for a shower or storm going up, especially across the south:

A little better risk for a shower or storm will be with us on Sunday as our moisture plume increases just a bit. Here’s where the GFS thinks will see, at least, some rain through Sunday night:

Additional showers and storms will be around early in the week, with another weak front dropping in from the north:

That system off the east coast bring me to my next subject… The tropics.

Things are all of a sudden becoming very active. We have a tiny little Hurricane Named Beryl that has developed and will work toward the Caribbean and should eventually weaken:

cone graphic

Chris is forming off the Carolina coast and is expected to meander around for a few days:

cone graphic

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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