Gusty winds ahead of another front

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s another super windy day taking shape, as we track another clipper across the Ohio Valley. This all comes from an active pattern that’s threatening to get super active as we inch closer to Christmas.

Highs today may hit 40 on a gusty southwesterly wind. Those gusts may reach 40mph at times by this evening:

Our clipper brings accumulating snows to our north into Indiana and Ohio, but could bring some flurries or snow showers in here early Thursday:

A system moving across the region on Friday tries to get going, but appears to be having trouble getting its act together. This may be because of a bigger system pushing it along. That rolls in by Saturday night and Sunday with rain:

This takes us into the week leading up to Christmas. The overall pattern across North America is one that is going to try to take temps to the extreme. Bitterly cold air is going to move into the country by Christmas weekend, while the far southeast sees toasty temps. Given the extreme temps, forget about using operational computer models. They may show us at zero on one run then 60 for the following run.

Let’s try some good old fashioned pattern recognition and see how things evolve. Here’s the possible setup for the long Christmas weekend into early Christmas week:

We will continue to watch that as we get closer. Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking a light snow system

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a quick-hitting light snow maker zipping across the region early in the day. This can drop some light accumulations as thermometers drop all day long.

The radar to our northwest won’t look very impressive, with the light snow and snow showers developing on top of us in the morning. Northwesterly winds will then kick in, helping fuel some additional snow showers across Eastern Kentucky.

This is not a lot of snow and might only cover the ground in some areas. But these smaller systems can sometimes have a big impact on traffic. We saw that this past weekend, so just be careful.

The most likely chances of accumulating snow are across the east and southeast:

Temps drop through the 20s Tuesday, with wind chills deep into the teens. Bundle up!

Another system then shows up Wednesday night, but the track on that is all over the place. It might try to bring a band of light snow across the northern half of the state.

The more interesting system comes Thursday night and Friday. Another northern branch system digs in across the lower Ohio Valley, spawning another low to our southeast. That system then tries to ride the East Coast. That scenario would bring more light snow across our entire region.

Here’s the GFS:

Will we see that East Coast system trend farther west in the coming days? We shall see, but it’s an interesting look.

Let’s get back to Tuesday’s light system. I have you guys all set to track the light stuff:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 36

Make it a great day and take care.

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Another light snowmaker ahead

Good Monday, folks. We are coming off a rather wintry weekend in the Commonwealth, and we have more winter on the way. Another light snowmaker rolls into the region later Monday night and Tuesday, with a few more possible later this week.

Highs on Monday hit the 40s as winds gust up ahead of a cold front. That front moves through in the evening, with colder air coming in on a strong northwesterly wind. That same northwest wind will create light snow and snow showers late Monday night through Tuesday.

You can see all that showing up on the future radar from the hi-res NAM:

That’s a stronger northwest flow than what we had Saturday evening, and it might even contain some true snow squalls. Local snow amounts could hit 1 inch or a littler more if some bands set up.

Here’s what I’m expecting:

 

Winds will be super gusty as temps crash all day long Tuesday. The same hi-res NAM has single digit wind chills by evening:

Another system rolls in late Wednesday and early Thursday, bringing the potential for some light snow:

That is being pushed by a potent upper-level system that takes on a bit of a negative tilt by Friday. Watch how the trough axis leans backward by Friday:

That suggests that this system has room to grow stronger in future runs. As it stands now, light snow and snow showers look common Thursday and Friday:

I’m watching the trends for Christmas weekend, and I’m seeing the potential for a lot of cold flooding the country. Don’t get caught up in individual runs of the operational models from this far out. The ensembles are the way to go.

The European ensembles show a massive cold-air outbreak as Santa arrives:

The control run of the European is even colder looking:

If you want a white Christmas, you have to start with the cold and go from there. The cold is showing up strongly from this far out. Any snow chances will be ironed out as we move forward.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Light snow chances for the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Our light snowfall on Saturday caused some big time travel problems across Kentucky. While most areas picked up an inch or less, the roads were an absolute mess, with black ice the main culprit.

Some of the black ice will still be noted early today, so slow down and take it easy if traveling this morning.

As we look toward the week ahead, it continues to be a full blown winter pattern, with several more light snow chances coming our way.

The next one arrives Monday night into Tuesday and may put down another light accumulation of snow:

Much colder air presses in through the day, with temps dropping through the 20s. Roads could again slicken up.

Two more clipper systems then impact our weather from Wednesday through Friday. The GFS shows a nice little system on Wednesday, followed by the next one Thursday and Friday:

The Canadian Model tries to get just a little deeper with that late week clipper:

We will need to watch and see if one of those clippers can dig in much deeper than the models currently suggest. Regardless, snow chances are with us from Monday night through Friday. Our first snow days of the season may show up at some point during this time.

The pattern tries to relax some next weekend, but the Ensembles go right back into developing another huge trough engulfing the eastern part of the country early next week:

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking light snow across Kentucky

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s a wintry day taking shape across the region, with cold temps, gusty winds and light accumulating snows. This is in response to a clipper diving in here from the northwest, and is one of several we will see over the next week.

Light snow moves in from northwest to southeast today. As this moves through, northwesterly winds kick in, adding a little extra moisture from Lake Michigan. This means snow showers and flurries kick in late today into this evening.

What about actual snowfall? This is not a big system, but it can cover the ground in many areas.

Light is the key word with this, but some accumulation will be possible…

I wasn’t going to make a first call, but work wanted one so I thought I would share it with you guys.

Winds will be very gusty in from tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with gusts making a run at 30mph:

That’s going to make those temps feel much, much colder right on through Sunday.

Clippers then dive back in here next week, with the next coming Monday night and Tuesday:

With another following that up:

Let’s get back today’s flakes. I have you all set to track the winter weather:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 36

 

Enjoy whatever snow falls where you live and take care.

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Some light snow for the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have a very active winter setup across the eastern half of the country. It’s producing a major deep south snowstorm and will bring some light snow into Kentucky this weekend.

Our southern snowstorm might put snow down all the way to the Gulf Coast on Friday and Friday night. Some of this could brush the southeastern part of the state by Friday evening. The GFS shows some snow getting into our Virginia border counties:

Here’s regional radar to see just how close those snowflakes get to the region Friday:

Our weekend clipper dives into the Ohio Valley on Saturday, bringing light snow to Central and Eastern Kentucky. Light is the key word here:

That might put down some very light accumulations in the afternoon and evening hours, especially across Eastern Kentucky. Give the very light nature of the snows, I see no reason to even put out a First Call For Snowfall. 🙂

Winds will be very gusty, blowing the flakes around. Wind chills by Saturday evening drop to 10 to 15 degrees:

A few single-digit wind chills then show up as we roll into Sunday morning. Sunday is another very windy and cold day, with wind chills staying in the low and middle 20s.

Beyond this weekend, arctic shots and clippers dive in with snow chances beginning as early as Monday night. You can see the additional cold blast showing up:

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Snow chances showing up

Good Thursday, folks. We continue to track a full-blown winter weather pattern settling in across Central and Eastern Kentucky. For fans of this kind of weather, the upcoming pattern has to be to your liking.

There’s a small threat of a few snowflakes out there, especially across the northern half of the state. This comes from a weak front crossing the state:

Highs will be in the 30s Thursday, with temps struggling to get to freezing Friday.

The clipper for the weekend is now within the time frame of the NAM. That model shows our potent upper level energy diving right on top of Kentucky:

That will bring a period of light snow, with wraparound snow showers and squalls getting a little kick from Lake Michigan:

That’s a light snowfall across much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. I still want to see how the models look with this as we get within 48 hours. Winds will be very gusty during this time and could reach 30 to 35 mph at times.

The individual runs for the GFS ensembles are also picking up on this well:

The next snow system arrives Monday night and Tuesday as arctic air surges in from the northwest. Here’s the European model:

The GFS is very similar:

The European model shows another potent clipper Wednesday:

By the end of next week, the models try their best to get incorporate something from the southern branch of the jet stream. Here’s the European:

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Tracking a weekend light-snow threat

Good Wednesday, folks. The big change blew into town Tuesday, and now we get ready for true winter weather to take control of the pattern. It grows colder over the next few days, but the focus is on the increasing snow chances, with the first coming this weekend.

Let us begin with Wednesday. Highs will be in the 40- to 45-degree range for many as winds make it feel even colder.

A weak cold front drops in on Thursday, knocking highs down into the low and mid 30s. Wind chill temps will be deep into the 20s for most of the day. There isn’t much moisture with this system, but I can’t rule out a few snowflakes flying around.

Friday is a cold day with upper teens to start and upper 20s and low 30s for highs.

The Saturday clipper is likely to be a light snow maker to much of our region. The European model continues to get a better handle on this feature with each run:

That can put down an inch or two into parts of our region. The same can be said for the GFS:

I will be curious to see if this trends a little stronger as we get closer… That’s usually how the models handle clippers. All I can say is, we have the potential for a light accumulation of snow Saturday into Saturday night. 🙂

Gusty winds and a blast of cold combine to produce single digit wind chills beyond this by Sunday morning:

I haven’t been shy about beating the winter weather drum from this weekend through next week and beyond. This is a deep trough with several snow systems working through here next week:

I fully expect our first snow days to show up next week.

It’s amazing at how consistent the pattern continues to show on the models. This is just a harsh stretch of winter weather for the eastern half of the country:

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Tracking the change to winter

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a very busy day of weather across the Bluegrass State as a cold front slams through. This begins the transition to a wintry pattern that kicks into high gear later this week into the weekend.

Our day is starting with gusty winds near 40 mph at times, with highs near 60. Showers and thunderstorms are rolling through ahead of a strong cold front. As the front passes through, temps take a big tumble into the upper 30s and low 40s by late afternoon:

This brings in a seasonal brand of cold for Wednesday, with temps in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The air grows colder as we head into Thursday, with highs in the low and middle 30s. The stage is set for the possibility of some light snow or flurries late in the day.

The main systems arrive over the weekend, with the models having the usual timing and intensity problems. That always seems to happen in the three- to five-day window from an event.

The European model shows snows along the East Coast from a couple of systems late in the week and the weekend. It has our clipper moving in Friday night and Saturday:

The model keeps trending a little stronger with it.

The European model then brings another clipper in Sunday night and Monday:

With a much stronger system following that by Tuesday:

That’s being pushed by bitter cold air pressing into the eastern half of the country. Guess what’s behind that system? Another clipper:

Let’s check in to see what the GFS is showing for these same systems. The model is beginning to see the east coast snows, while trying to figure out the impact it has on our Thursday-Sunday pattern:

We won’t see the models fully understand this setup until we get to Wednesday or Thursday.

The individual members of the GFS ensembles show the spread for the weekend snow potential:

Several runs are impressive with the snow, but others show some very light stuff. We shall see.

Here’s what I can say: This setup is likely to deliver our first light accumulating snow of the season at some point from Friday through early Sunday. Arctic cold winds blow behind that for Saturday and Sunday, with temps tanking.

The GFS also shows a small clipper by Sunday night, and it goes toward the bigger system idea early next week:

Like the European, it’s showing bitterly cold air invading the east and has more action following that later next week:

As I have been saying, we will have lots of snow chances between now and Christmas. I cannot tell you anything more beyond that, but the pattern has a lot of potential!

Have a great day and take care.

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A change to winter this week

Good Monday, everyone.  We have one more mild day and then the bottom drops out. A major pattern change is taking place, with Old Man Winter taking control of the pattern for the eastern half of the country.

Highs out there Monday should hit the 60s with an increase in clouds and winds. This is ahead of our strong cold front blowing in with showers and storms late Monday night and Tuesday.

Winds are going to be a big-time player along and ahead of this front. Look at the wind gust forecast during this time:

Wind gusts of 40 mph will be common for many areas into the first half of Tuesday.

The cold air continues to try and catch the back edge of the rain shield Tuesday night and very early Wednesday morning across Eastern Kentucky.

The NAM:

The GFS is also showing a few snowflakes flying Tuesday night in the southeast:

Northwesterly winds bring in colder air Wednesday and Thursday, with the upper levels sending a lot of energy southward into our region from late Thursday through Saturday:

That brings light-accumulating snow potential with it, but the details are far from being known. All I can continue to say is, we have the chance to put a little snow on the ground Friday and Saturday. Arctic air comes in behind that setup. Gusty winds will send wind-chill levels way down.

Following that will be another big shot of arctic air. This should also bring snow chances back to the region:

GFS

European:

The cold shots are lined up to invade the eastern half of the country over the next few weeks. The ensembles have not budged in showing this:

With the cold will come several chances of snow. That’s about as specific as I can get on the snow possibilities. 🙂

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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