Rounds of snow continue

Good Tuesday to one and all. Snow showers and squalls continue to push across the region and should continue through Wednesday. Arctic cold air pours in during the same time, adding another layer to our winter weather woes.

Temps Tuesday will be much lower than what we were seeing Monday with highs only in the 20s. That means we won’t see much melting. Roads will be slick and, in some cases, partially snow-covered.

The future radar from the NAM shows how the northwesterly winds keep the snows going into Wednesday:

NAMI will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Highs on Wednesday will hit only the upper teens to near 20. Winds will make it feel much colder than that. Thursday morning lows will drop into the single digits in some areas.

A weak clipper could bring a few flurries or snow showers to the region Thursday.

A more important system moves in Friday with a greater threat of accumulating snows. Here’s the European model:

Friday night:

EuroThat unleashes another round of arctic cold for the weekend. The European isn’t as strong as the Friday system and goes back to showing a stronger Sunday and Monday system:

Euro 2

The Canadian model still shows it:

Canadian

The European ensembles average snowfall over the next week likes our region:

Euro 4

Here are your Tuesday winter weather trackers:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Winter weather advisory for many areas

Good Monday, everyone. Winter weather is quickly returning to Central and Eastern Kentucky. This is just the beginning of what looks like a harsh winter weather pattern.

Our day starts with a mix of light rain and some light snow as system number one moves in. System number 2 arrives later Monday into the evening with crashing temps and widespread snow showers and squalls.

The squalls from late afternoon evening will pack a punch. There will be blinding snows at times, and those could drop a quick inch or two in some areas. Winds will be very gusty as temps drop. Believe it or not, some thunder is even possible.

Widespread snow showers and squalls carry us through Tuesday into Wednesday. For that reason, a winter weather advisory is out for much of the region during this time:

Another system moves in Thursday with the possibility of another light snowfall. All told, a few to several inches of snow will be possible from late Monday through Thursday. The GFS continues to indicate some significant totals:

GFS 2

Slick travel conditions are likely during this time.

Bitterly cold air also will show up, with highs Wednesday and Thursday struggling to get out of the teens. Wind chills will be near zero and could drop below zero during the morning. That’s when lows could hit the single digits.

The European model continues to go crazy with the potential for a major arctic outbreak this weekend. It’s also ramping up the potential for several inches of snow when the arctic front and low pressure move in late Friday:

Euro 2That essentially brings the polar vortex into the eastern part of the country:

Euro 4 Euro 3That would be absolutely brutal if it happens like that.

I leave you with your regional radar to track Monday’s action:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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A lot of winter for the week ahead

Good Super Bowl Sunday, everyone. We have big changes blowing into central and eastern Kentucky later tonight. These changes will lead us into a prolonged period of winter weather across our part of the world.

Winds and clouds will increase this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This will have a band of rain and snow with it later tonight into Monday morning.

After a midday break, widespread snow showers and squalls will kick  Once they kick in, they may not stop for a while. A strong northwesterly wind flow will combine with several upper air systems and the warm Great Lakes waters, to create some decent snows.

This is a setup that will basically “nickel and dime” us to death over the course of several days. Each system that passes through here will drop some accumulation that can add up to several inches for some. The GFS snowfall forecast through Friday night:

GFS SnowThat does NOT all fall at once. Instead, it shows the cumulative totals for our daily chance of snow.

This is also a VERY cold setup for much of the country. Check out this absolutely Frigid pattern on the European Model…

Euro

The Friday-Saturday maps basically show the Polar Vortex dropping toward the Great Lakes and northeast with even colder air moving in here. That is introduced by another potential light snow maker.

The GFS during this same time is showing some single digit lows:

GFS Temps 2

Winter still has a lot left in the tank!

Make it a great Super Bowl Sunday and take care.

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Rounds of snow start Monday

Good Saturday, everyone. We’re in the middle of a very nice weekend of weather across central and eastern Kentucky. This nice weather isn’t going to last very long as Old Man Winter returns by Monday. Once he gets into town, he may be in no big hurry to leave.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s to around 50 in many areas. Our skies will feature some sun and a few clouds hanging out together.

Super Bowl Sunday looks similar in terms of temps and sky conditions. Winds will increase a bit as we get ready for our first system to impact to impact the region. A line of rain and snow showers moves through Sunday night into Monday morning.

Additional systems then dive in here from the northwest from Monday through Wednesday.

This deep trough will allow for numerous upper air systems to work in here on a strong and cold northwesterly flow. Throw in some moisture from the Great Lakes and you can see the snow numbers add up.

The latest GFS snow forecast for Monday-Wednesday…

GFS 3

The European Model uses a 10-1 ratio so it will show slightly lower totals…

Euro

The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL…

Euro 4

Moral of the story… the stage is set for multiple rounds of snows that can put down several inches over a three to four day span. Arctic cold and gusty winds will also be noted.

Another surge of arctic air arrives by late Friday and could bring more snow. Here’s the European model…

Euro 2

In my last update, I mentioned the potential for a big overrunning system around the middle of the month. The European Model says Happy Valentine’s Day…

Euro 3

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter fights back next week

Good Friday to one and all. We have a nice-looking and nice-feeling weekend taking shape across our part of the world. This is good timing for all those folks heading out to Super Bowl parties.

Once beyond the weekend, winter surges back into the Bluegrass State in a big way.

Highs Friday will be in the low and mid-40s in many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs for Saturday and Sunday will top out between 45 and 50 degrees. Winds will be a little breezy under a mix of sun and clouds.

We’re going into a pattern that will feature a 3- to 4-day period of snow showers and squalls across our region. That starts Monday morning and runs through early Thursday. Northwesterly winds coming across the warmer-than-normal Great Lakes will combine with several upper-air systems to create the widespread snow showers and squalls.

The GFS snow forecast through Wednesday:

GFS

Keep in mind, it’s forecasting that to fall collectively over three days. You might never see those totals on the ground at any one time.

How do you know these snow squalls mean business? When I look at the raw output for Lexington and see the model showing the threat for thundersnow:

GFS 2The Canadian Model is similar to the GFS with this setup. This snowfall map is only for a 10-1 ratio…

Canadian

Our ratios are likely to be quite a bit higher. That’s the “fluff factor” I often talk about.

The European ensembles show another system to watch next weekend and early the following week. Here’s the two-week snow forecast from that model:

Euro 2

Make it a great Friday and take care.

Euro

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Winter gets ready to return

Good Thursday, everybody. Much colder air is back in the Bluegrass, and this is a sign of things to come. Old Man Winter appears to be mounting another attack, with the potential for some harsh weather moving in next week.

Thursday’s weather will feature some low clouds and flurries this morning before skies break some this afternoon. Highs will mainly be in the 30s:

For the past week, I’ve been highlighting the period of Feb. 7-11 for harsh winter weather to return to our region and the eastern part of the country. The upper-air charts have been all over this and continue to be. You can’t get a trough of this depth without some harsh stuff:

GFS 2

The surface charts are slowly catching on to all this. The latest GFS suggests waves of windy snows as bitterly cold air sweeps in. The below maps are for Monday through Wednesday:

GFS

With such low temperatures, it doesn’t take much moisture to produce snow, and those temps are brutal. Over the course of three days, that’s a setup that can potentially deliver a few to several inches of snow in some areas.

The air coming in behind the snow squalls is absolutely frigid:

GFS TEMPS 1

That could bring single-digit lows our way by Wednesday and Thursday.

Another blast of winter weather is possible by Valentine’s weekend.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Much colder times ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. We’re coming off a wild Groundhog Day, with many areas hitting record highs. Strong and severe storms rumbled across the state as high winds took center stage. From here, we start to focus on much colder weather on the way.

Temps Wednesday will slowly drop from west to east. We should see them settle into the 30s settle Wednesday evening, with the potential for a snowflake or two. Highs Thursday will generally stay in the 30s.

Seasonal temps move back in for Friday to start the weekend. All of this gets ready to change in a big, big way next week. The jet stream is ready to take a huge dip into the central and eastern sections of the country:

EuroThat setup can spawn snowmakers for our part of the world and is a rather extreme look. Much colder air also gets involved in the pattern. Look at the forecast departures by next Tuesday:

GFS 2That pattern is forecast to grow even colder as we head into Valentine’s weekend:

GFS 3

Winter isn’t over by any means!

I leave you with your Wednesday weather trackers:

Make it a great day and take care.

Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

 

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Tracking the severe storms threat

Good Tuesday and happy Groundhog Day. We have a very busy weather day taking shape across our part of the world. A strong cold front brings the potential for record highs and severe weather to Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Here’s a breakdown of the day:

– A warm front lifts northward across the state and could produce a shower or two.

– Record highs will be possible, with many areas flirting with 70 degrees before the afternoon wraps up. Temps will stay in the 60s through the evening.

– A line of strong to severe storms develops across Western Kentucky by late in the afternoon or early evening. That line works eastward into Tuesday night.

– Damaging winds continue to be the main threat. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, Especially across south Central Kentucky.

– With or without thunderstorms, high winds are going to be a problem. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible with such a strong system. With a soggy ground from recent snow melt, some trees could come down.

– I’m a little more concerned about the local flash-flood potential. A 1- to 3-inch rainfall will be possible with these storms in a short time.

I have the blog all set for you to track Tuesday’s active weather:

Wednesday’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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A very active start to February

Good Monday to one and all. February is off and running with some showers and thunderstorms working across the state. This might be the appetizer to the main course of storms that arrives late Tuesday. This could make for some bumpy times for the groundhog, because some of the storms could be severe.

Monday’s action becomes more scattered as the day wears on and comes to an end in the afternoon. Highs will be much lower than where we’ve been and where we’re going. Look at the bounce-back for Tuesday:

NAM

With enough sunshine, highs could hit 70 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Record highs for Groundhog Day would be blown away if that happens. 67 is the record for Lexington for Feb. 2, from 1893.

With the warm weather comes the potential for severe thunderstorms as a powerful cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon through the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Here’s the future radar to time the storms across the region:

NAM 2Colder air slowly swings in behind that system from west to east Wednesday. That cold gets bolstered by another arctic front that arrives over the weekend. That might have a band of light snow with it.

The longer-range models continue to pick up on a bigger signal for winter weather across the eastern half of the country early next week. Many of the models forecast several pieces of upper-air energy to come together and form a big system:

GFS 2

I leave you with your first day of February tracking tools:

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Warm weather leads to a big storm system

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another very mild day in store for central and eastern Kentucky. Above normal temps this time of year can often be accompanied by the threat for thunderstorms, and that’s just what we have in the days ahead. Some of those boomers could even become severe.

Temps today will be back into the low 60s for many areas with clouds slowly increasing. Showers develop and move in this evening and carry us into Monday morning. That action is along a weak cold front that quickly lifts back to the north as a warm front.

This sets the stage for a wild Groundhog Day Tuesday. Near record highs are possible on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Those winds will really crank by late in the afternoon and evening as a powerful storm develops to our west.

Sever thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Watch the explosion of storms showing up on the models.

GFS

GFS 2

The Canadian…

Canadian

Please keep a close eye on this setup as we get closer.

Cold air presses in behind this front for the rest of the week into Super Bowl Weekend. In my last update, I said to watch the period from February 7-11 or a possible big winter weather system developing. The GFS must have been reading that post…

GFS 3

The stage is setup for wicked weather over the next few weeks, and the blog will keep you updated along the way.

I leave you with your Sunday tracking toys:

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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