Heavy rain and gusty winds ahead

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s another chilly and dreary day across our part of the world, but the focus continues to be on the second half of the week. That’s when moisture from Hurricane Zeta meets up with another storm system to bring heavy rain and gusty winds in here.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs range from the upper 40s to middle 50s for most of the state as clouds hang tough. A few showers will also be noted from time to time:

Hurricane Zeta is still on a collision course with Louisiana later Wednesday. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Notice the cone is a little farther south, but that’s only tracking the center of circulation. Actual tropical rains will be well out ahead of this and should arrive in Kentucky on Wednesday.

At the same time, we will watch our storm system rolling in here from the southwest. That tries to absorb what’s left of Zeta or, at least, pulls in a lot of the moisture from it. The end result would be rounds of heavy rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds around here through Friday.

Here’s how the models handle it:

The NAM only goes through Thursday evening…

The GFS continues to be the most progressive:

The Canadian is steady as she goes:

The EURO looks a lot like the Canadian:

That turns into a big northeastern snowstorm. Here’s what it means for us…

  • Rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.
  • Rainfall amounts of a few inches will be possible.
  • Wind gusts of 30mph or a little greater may also show up.
  • Temps will spike during this time, but come crashing down for Friday. Highs then are only in the 40s.

Another cold front follows that up for Sunday with even colder air to kick off November. The EURO is close to spitting out some flakes on a northwest flow:

Enjoy your  day and take care.

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Chilly temps start a busy week

Good Monday, everyone. We are coming off a weekend more typical of late November than late October and that chill remains out there today. This kicks off a week full of action, including moisture from a soon to be hurricane making it all the way to Kentucky.

Temps today range from the upper 40s to middle 50s for many, with the southeast seeing temps a little milder. Those areas can reach the 60s again. Clouds will be common to go along with scattered showers working through the entire region. This doesn’t look terribly heavy, but you will have to put the umbrella to use from time to time.

Here are your radars for the day:

The NAM is absolutely smoking the other models with temps. Models like the EURO are garbage with temps to begin with, but the GFS is now running too warm. The NAM keeps today’s temp gradient going through Tuesday:

Gusty showers will also be noted from time to time over the next few days. We may see the western part of the state seeing some heavier amounts compared to everybody else.

Tropical Storm Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico, taking a very familiar track this season:

cone graphic

Notice how Kentucky is in the track cone once again. Did you know Kentucky has been in the tropical track cone more this season than Florida?  Check out this map from @splillo on Twitter:

Image

We are adding to that right now. Can we garner anything from this? My only take is we have had an exceptionally stable pattern this fall and that looks like it continues.

The remnants from ZETA are likely to impact our weather by late Wednesday and Thursday. To what extent remains to be seen and will depend on the exact track of the center of circulation and how much of it gets pulled into the storm coming from the southwest. The models have the same general concept, but still vary from run to run:

GFS

CANADIAN

EURO

Here’s the wind gust map from the EURO:

It will be interesting to see how all this plays out in the coming week, but quite a bit of rain and wind may impact the state later in the week.

BTW, I don’t think the tropics are finished, yet. Watch for another storm or two during the first half of November.

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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Much colder weather returns

Good Saturday, folks. It’s a totally different temperature world out there today as November air returns to the region. This continues into Sunday before we get back into another very active setup for the closing days of October.

Temps out there today are generally staying in the upper 40s to low 50s for most of the day. Clouds will hang tough, making for a dreary day overall. Some lingering showers will continue to show up across central and eastern Kentucky:

Sunday is a day that’s trending colder and many of us likely stay in the 50s. Farther south and southeast, the temps should rebound into the 60s. Isolated showers and storms may also show back up.

The numbers should bounce up on Monday, but come right back down starting Tuesday and then go well below normal for the rest of the week/month. Waves of rain will be noted Monday and Tuesday before a break by Wednesday. A bigger storm system then moves in by the end of the week and that one is trying to tap even colder air to our northwest:

GFS

Notice all that early week winter weather just to our west and northwest? Notice how close that second system is to some flakes around here? Interesting.

Another trough drops in here Halloween weekend:

Once again, much of what happens depends on how the tropics play out. Hurricane Epsilon is finally getting out of the picture in the Atlantic:

cone graphic

Now we have to watch for something going up in the Caribbean:

Some of the models do try to bring moisture from that system and combine it with the late week storm system working in here. One of those models is the European Model, but that’s one of the last models I trust with any system coming out of the southwestern part of the country in this type of pattern. Still, here it is:

We shall see how all that works out, but the potential for a lot of rain is very much likely next week.

Have a great day and take care.

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Strong storms usher in colder temps

Good Friday to one and all. It’s a busy day taking shape across the region as a powerful fall cold front drops in from the northwest. This has a line of strong storms ahead of it and a major temp drop behind it.

Scattered storms will go up as early as late morning and early afternoon, but the main line of storms arrives during the evening. This may very well impact some high school football games in central Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center also has this area in the low-end risk for a few severe storms:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/KY_swody1.png

Lingering showers will likely accompany low clouds on Saturday.

The temp drop will be the big story. Look at the dramatic day to day difference on the NAM:

Temps for Sunday will likely be all over the place with 50s north and near 70 in the south and southeast. Temps spike briefly on Monday, but come right back down as our next front moves in and stalls on top of the region. This will lead to repeat rain and some thunderstorm action into next week, but the models continue to differ on exactly how to handle it all:

Again, how all this works out is largely dependent on the how the tropics behave through the next week or so.

The potential for quite a bit of rain is there over the next week or so as the models continue to show several inches of rain:

We need the tropics to calm down and let the cold air win the battle or we could be in for some issues during this time. UGH.

Here are your Friday storm tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking a Friday cold front

Good Thursday, everybody. It’s another September-like temperature day across the state, but a cold front is ready to crash the party later Friday. That will bring an increase in showers and storms, and a big drop in temps to start the weekend.

Let’s start this off by talking about the weather out there today. It’s pretty darn awesome. ‘Nuff said. 🙂

Friday features an increase in showers and storms for the afternoon and evening as our front marches in from the northwest. This front will bring a fairly dramatic drop in temps as we go from the 70s on Friday to the 50s for Saturday. The NAM is actually even chillier:

Clouds and lingering showers will likely in what looks like a pretty ugly Saturday as of now.

Temps rebound a bit on Sunday, but this cold air in the plains is really going to try to press southeastward pretty quickly early next week. This highly anomalous cold is going to cause issues for the models and we’ve been seeing that already with wild swings from run to run. Just like what we are seeing with the air behind the Friday front, watch for the models to grow colder as we get closer to next week.

Regardless,  the models are still trying to figure it all out, but it looks very unsettled:

Enjoy this terrific Thursday and take care.

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Milder days settle in

Good Wednesday to one and all. We are finally getting a break in the rain as much milder air takes control of the pattern for the rest of the week. How long that lasts depends on two cold fronts on the way, with the first arriving by Friday.

Rainfall was beyond impressive since Sunday as some areas picked up close to 5″ of rain. You can also see the sharp cutoff to the rain on the Kentucky Mesonet totals through Tuesday:

That matched up very well with the map I made last week, though it wound up just a few miles farther south…

Not too shabby.

Let’s start with today and the 70s. Winds are coming from the southwest with a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity levels are up just a bit and I still can’t rule out an isolated shower going up, but most stay dry.

Thursday’s forecast is essentially today on repeat.

The next system arrives on Friday with some showers and storms that linger into Saturday. That knocks the temps down. Beyond that, rounds of showers and storms may target the reign early next week as we watch a heck of a fight take place across the country. The models continue to struggle with consistency in how to handle all the cold and storm systems ejecting from the southwest.

Here’s the latest GFS:

EURO

Given how much rain just fell into parts of the region, we don’t need that battle zone to set up over top of us. We need the cold to overwhelm the setup and win the battle.

Make it a great day and take care.

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More showers usher in milder air

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day of scattered showers and storms as a cold front slows down and gets ready to head back to the north. This will allow for better weather to blow in for the next few days, but another front is on the menu by Friday.

Temps today range from the 60s in the north to the 70s in the southeast today as more of those showers and storms rumble through. This isn’t all day stuff, but some additional heavy rains will be possible with the best chance in the north and west.

Here are your Tuesday trackers:

As this is happening, the tropical system we’ve been yapping about since last week is finally developing in the Atlantic. Epsilon is on the way to becoming a hurricane as it heads to near Bermuda…

cone graphic

You can see what a slow-mover that is forecast to be through Saturday. It’s essentially causing a traffic jam with the pattern behind it across North America. When that finally decides to move away will be the determining factor on how the next few systems impact our weather.

By Friday, some moisture streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico and interacts with a cold front moving in. That leads to showers and storms that may linger into Saturday:

The models go back and forth on how fast that tropical system gets out of the way. The more resistance it offers to the deep trough moving east, the more of a threat there is for round of heavy rain and storms around here:

The broad view from the EURO for the same time period:

The faster the tropical system moves away, the colder it gets and would bring the opportunity for some late October flakes into our region.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Rain and storms for some

Good Monday, everyone. A cold front is dropping into the region and slowing down, leading to the threat for showers and storms. This action won’t impact the entire region, but it could mean heavy rain in the north and west.

Due to the sharp cutoff in the rain shield, we are likely to see a big time temp swing. Areas in the southeast won’t see as much rain, so your temps can spike to 70 or so today. Farther north and west, the rains will be steadier and that may mean we stay in the 50s.

In addition to the heavy rain potential north and west, the chance is there for a few strong storms. The Storm Prediction Center has a low-end risk for severe storms in some of the same areas:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/KY_swody1.png

The setup after this will be a battle between the tropics and full blown winter showing up across the country. Early season snows have been common already for a large chunk of real estate and I expect that to grow through the end of October. Can that include our region? Yes. Will it? That remains to be seen.

This makings of a very potent setup are coming together from late this week into the following week:

GFS

EURO

Again, as soon as whatever happens in the tropics can get out of the way, we see that deep trough come right back in here.

I leave you with your storm tracking toys for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Rain and storms set to increase

Good Sunday to one and all. Clouds are rolling into the region today and will bring rounds of showers and storms in here through the first half of the new week. Some areas across the north and west could get in on some big time rains before all is said and done.

Let’s kick things off with a look at this morning’s cold…

The cold in Lexington actually broke a record of sorts…

Essentially, this was the shortest growing season on record for the city of Lexington and those records go back to the 1870s. WOW. Think that stat will get any play in the local weather world? It’s not about heat or drought, so you already know the answer. 😉

Clouds roll in today as we get a cold front to edge toward the region from the northwest. This front will bring some showers and storms into western Kentucky by this afternoon then over the rest of the area tonight into Monday. This front stalls out and allows for a few more showers and storms to occasionally develop through Wednesday.

The setup is there for repeat strong storms and very heavy rainfall across the northern and western parts of the bluegrass state. Here’s the early look at the areas most at risk:

The models continue to show the heaviest rains the same areas of the state with very little in the south and southeast:

GFS

EURO

CANADIAN

NAM  (through Tuesday only)

Temps will be much warmer in the south and southeast during this time.

A few of the Monday storms may even be strong or locally severe. The Storm Prediction Center has the west in a low-end risk for severe weather:

Another cold front arrives Friday with showers and thunderstorms, but a lot of what happens from this point on may depend on the tropics:

The models all handle this differently and will be all over the place in the coming days. The latest EURO continues to try and hookup some tropical action with a deep trough working across the central and eastern part of the country:

That’s one heck of a look for late October, eh?

I leave you with your Sunday shower and storm tracking radars:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Cold temps before rains increase

Good Saturday to one and all. Our weekend is starting with frost and freezing temps and will end with an increase in clouds. Those clouds will be ahead of a rain maker rolling in here for the first half of next week.

The rest of Saturday looks awesome with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Clouds will increase Sunday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This has some very cold air with it, but it can only get so far south before throwing on the brakes. This means showers and thunderstorms develop on top of us Sunday night into Monday and would likely hang around for a few days:

Quite the temp swing shows up from north to south across the state during this time, but everyone will see a spike into the 70s by the middle of the week.

That spike is ahead of another front working in for Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. That ushers in much colder air behind it and sets the stage for a cold air outbreak across the central and eastern part of the country. This starts a few days after I had thought a few weeks ago… Thanks, tropics. Still, it has the potential to produce winter weather for areas that typically don’t see it this early in the season:

EURO

CANADIAN

GFS

Very interesting, eh?

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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