High winds for the final post of the blog

Good Saturday, everyone. After a nearly 10 year run of posting here on Kentucky.com, today marks the end of our run. Blogs are being phased out from the corporate level, so this is where we part ways.

I’m thankful for each and everyone of you who have clicked on this blog through the years. It’s been a pleasure to log daily weather updates for the fine folks at Kentucky.com and the Lexington Herald Leader.

For those of you who may or may not know, I’ve always had another site that’s fully my own and it predates the blog you’re reading now. If you want to continue following my weather updates, give it a look: https://kyweathercenter.com/

As we put a close on this site, we are doing so on an appropriate note with the winds of change blowing into the region. As a matter of fact, these winds could be rather high tonight and early Sunday.

Winds will increase from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening. The initial wind direction is coming from the south and southwest, then switches to the west and northwest behind the front. Gusts of 50mph or higher will be possible and the models are in remarkable agreement with one another…

EURO

NAM

GFS

Some damage is possible with those kinds of gusts, so let’s baton down the hatches… or Christmas decorations… Or lawn furniture. 🙂

A few showers will show up across the west on Saturday, but the majority of the action sweeps in along the front Saturday night and Sunday morning. This line is working through quickly with almost full sunshine behind it Sunday afternoon…

Another front slams through behind this by late Monday and early Tuesday and that brings highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s into the middle of next week. Temps should recover behind this, but the pattern looks to turn very active as we head into next weekend and through Thanksgiving week. You guys know I’ve been talking about this setup for days now and how I think it can bring winter weather into the eastern half of the country.

The models continue to go in this direction. If we look at the latest EURO, we find a colder look next weekend with overrunning rain and snow just to our north with a potent storm developing to the west of us…

Taken verbatim, that would roll through here with crashing temps and likely rain ending as some flake action to start Thanksgiving week. That said, don’t take any model verbatim… Ever. 🙂

The Canadian has a similar overall thought process, but differs in the placement and details…

Here’s the GFS into the first half of Thanksgiving week…

The same model runs shows another system to end the holiday weekend…

Again, folks, we are only looking at trends here and these runs aren’t to be taken verbatim.

For the final time, I leave you with your rain tracking radars:

Once again, thank you for being along for this decade long ride. As always, have a great day and take care.

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Gusty winds this weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have another seasonally chilly November day in the making, but it’s all eyes on a strong cold front this weekend. Gusty winds, showers and a blast of cold will accompany our front.

Winds will begin to gust on Saturday as our cold front approaches from the west. Those winds will absolutely crank Saturday night and Sunday as the front slams in here. Gusts may top 50mph at times. There’s some nice agreement among the models…

EURO

NAM

GFS

A few showers show up ahead of the front later Saturday, but this action becomes widespread as we go into Saturday night and early Sunday. From there, colder air moves in with another front pushing in behind this one…

I continue to think temps moderate quickly by the end of next week into the start of the weekend. But, the trend continues to be for another push of cold air to dive in here from the northwest to kick off Thanksgiving week. Can this setup have a storm system with it?

The Canadian says yes…

The EURO is slower but you can see low pressure coming out of the southwest on the final day of the model run…

The GFS sees the cold shot coming, but is always showing a progressive look…

So, my idea of Thanksgiving week giving us something to watch out for seems to have some merit. At least it does for now. 🙂

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Normal November temps

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a much better looking day taking shape, but our temps are back to the normal range. This looks to carry us into the weekend before another cold front does a number on the temps by early next week.

Here’s the temp forecast from the NAM starting at 7am today and ending Saturday at 7pm…

As ETA gets out of the way, here comes a colder pattern taking shape as we roll into next week into Thanksgiving week. The trend of the models continues to point in this direction and that’s something we talked about for a while now.

The first cold front arrives on Sunday with gusty showers increasing out ahead of this. Some of those showers show up as early Saturday. Behind the front comes a big blast of very cold air with flakes flying not to far away from us…

CANADIAN

EURO

Notice how the EURO is trending colder later next week into the following weekend…

I’m still watching the setup as we roll into into Thanksgiving week as I think it has a shot at some winter weather across the eastern half of the country. The EURO Ensembles go through Thanksgiving Day and are, at least, seeing the chance…

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Seasonal temps return

Good Wednesday, everyone. Today is a special day… The day we honor all those who have served our amazing country. All I can say is a heartfelt thank you for everything you’ve done for us as a nation!  On this Veterans Day, we have a cold front plowing across the state today and it’s bringing wet weather with a big time temperature drop compared to where we’ve been. This actually kicks off a pattern skewed normal or a little below normal for the rest of the week. Once into the weekend, a stronger cold front will usher in well below normal temps into the first half of next week.

Today’s front slows down as it gets into the eastern part of the state as a weak wave of low pressure develops along it. That will throw a round of heavier rain across the southeast and we will need to keep a close eye on that setup. Farther west behind the front, showers persist across much of central Kentucky as temps stay seasonally chilly.

Here are your radars for the day…

Temps are now much more normal for November as we roll through the rest of the week and into Saturday. Here’s an animation of the forecast temps from the NAM starting at 1pm today and ending Saturday morning at 7am…

Let’s move on to Tropical Storm ETA down in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is a small storm, but it started looking healthy again last night…

It now appears we are back to where we started a few days ago with ETA hugging the Florida coast before making landfall tomorrow. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

If in fact we can go ahead and get rid of ETA a little quicker, then we will likely see the overall pattern skewing colder. You guys know my thoughts on all this from numerous prior posts about how the tropics can slow things down, so I won’t rehash.

The computer model forecasts are now taking on a much colder look over the next few weeks. We see a system rolling in here over the weekend with a spike in temps ahead of it and a big drop in temps behind it.

Here’s the EURO from Saturday night through Tuesday…

The Canadian actually locks the colder look in for all of next week…

Look at those temperature anomalies…

For the record, I don’t think it plays out quite like the Canadian shows. We get our cold shot through the middle of next week but eases off late in the week into the following weekend. From there,  we are likely to see a colder, and perhaps wintry, trend as we work into Thanksgiving week. Wait… Are we really 2 weeks away from Thanksgiving? Time is flying by, so do whatever you can to slow it down and enjoy the ride!

Once again, thank you Veterans!!!

Have a great day and take care.

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Warm temps before big changes

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a super-duper warm weekend across the region as temps flirt with record highs. These numbers will take us into early next week before big changes move in here next week.

It’s one heck of a weekend kicking off as temps soar deep into the 70s and may flirt with records in a few spots. The pattern after that continues to look super active as the pattern cranks out several systems rolling our way.

Highs over the weekend and into Monday is in the 70s. That much we know, so soak it up.

Tropical Storm ETA continues to spin toward Cuba then toward the Florida Keys this weekend. From there, this looks to get into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and slow down. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

The trend among the Hurricane Models is for this system to hang toward the Florida Gulf Coast then move inland…

The operational models continue to show a little different look from run to run. They all agree we get a front in here with showers and storms later Tuesday and Wednesday with a follow up system or two after that as the pattern turns colder.

Here’s the latest EURO…

The Canadian…

And the GFS…

It’s interesting to see recent runs of the GFS going toward a similar pattern to what we had for much of September. A ridge in the west and a trough in the east show up once into the middle of the month…

We will see if we can fully get there or not. I still think November as a whole winds up above normal for temps around here, but a few of my updated analog years suggest a sharp turn to cold toward the end of the month.

Have a great day and take care.

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Warm for the weekend

Good Friday, folks.

We’ve made it to the end of a long week and I think we deserve the nice weekend ahead of us. Temps are going to be on the warm side as our big blue sky returns to the Commonwealth. Once we get into next week, we will be seeing this pattern cranking it up a bit. This will lead to some hefty changes to our weather by the middle of the week.

I’m not going to even bother rehashing the weekend forecast because you guys know how nice it is and will be. I will say one thing… It might be a good weekend to go ahead and get those Christmas lights and decorations out and up! 🙂

Tropical Storm ETA is firing back up in the Caribbean and will roll across Cuba and toward the Florida Keys this weekend. From there, it goes right back to where all the action has been this hurricane season… The Gulf of Mexico. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Outside of a few rouge members, the Hurricane Models strongly agree with that forecast…

I’ve been talking about this wild pattern taking shape across the country during this time. It’s essentially similar to what we had a week or two ago when the west had all kinds of winter as a hurricane was coming ashore in the Gulf. This go around, it looks like we have the potential for a full-blown blizzard in the northern Rockies as a tropical system works across Florida then takes aim at the Gulf.

The western winter will be sending systems our way next week and they try to pick up ETA from the Gulf. The first front arrives with showers and storms late Tuesday into Wednesday and some of those storms may be strong.

It’s likely that we get some offshoot tropical moisture from ETA, but the storm stays in the Gulf and waits for the next system late next week into the weekend.

Here’s how the models see it all playing out…

GFS

The Canadian looks better to me because I do expect this to kick off a stream of southern stream systems rolling in from the southwest…

The EURO looks to have the same idea…

I think this active southern branch of the jet stream is a sign of things to come for the winter ahead. There should be no shortage of precipitation this winter and that’s likely to take on all forms as we should find ourselves riding the fence in many occasions.

Have a great day and take care.

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Warm temps through the weekend

Good Thursday, folks. It’s been very mild across the region for the past several days, but the next several days will be even warmer. Readings are likely to reach the 70s for the upcoming weekend in what’s a gorgeous stretch of fall weather.

Temps out there today are in the mid and upper 60s with more clouds rolling through compared to the past several days. No worries, those clouds will not be producing rain.

Highs from Friday through Monday will hit the 70-75 degree range across all of central and eastern Kentucky. If you’re not making outdoor plans… Get after it! 🙂

ETA continues to weaken over Central America, but this will emerge back over water late tomorrow or Friday. From there, this storm will then strengthen as it works toward Cuba and Florida this weekend. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

You can see how that forecast is fairly in line with what the Hurricane Models are suggesting:

The GFS continues to show a Florida hit as it crosses west into the Gulf and hangs out for a few days. From there, it waits for the second front to pick it up:

That scenario means a round of showers and storms for us with the first front early in the week as colder air crashes in. Those numbers drop even more after the second system works through here later in the week into next weekend.

The Canadian has a little different look:

So does the EURO:

Again, such an extreme pattern means the models will change a lot over the next several days.

While the overall pattern looks much different next week, it doesn’t change my mind that November is likely skewed warmer than normal. That’s a big change from the past few years.

Enjoy another fine weather day and take care.

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Much milder days kick in

Good Wednesday, everyone. We continue to see a gorgeous string of very nice weather here across the Commonwealth. This looks to roll on through the rest of the week into the weekend, but big changes are showing up for next week.

Highs today are deep into the 60s with a mostly sunny sky. We will notice a few more clouds in here on Thursday, but highs are back in the 60s. We will see temps around 70 for the upcoming weekend.

Hurricane ETA was one of the strongest November hurricanes ever recorded as it hits Central America today. This storm then moves over land for several days before emerging back over the water and lifting northward toward Cuba by the weekend. Here’s the current outlook from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

We are seeing more and more of a trend to track this toward Cuba then toward Florida. The Hurricane Models are just starting to trend strongly in this direction:

The operational models have a lot to deal with over the next week and change. Not only to we have this historic hurricane, but we also have another huge blast of winter invading the west. That will then roll eastward this weekend and early next week. Can we get the winter trough to do a little dance with ETA? That’s something to watch for next week, but the models will show some very wild swings in the coming days.

The latest GFS is now much faster with ETA hitting the US and even has it being absorbed by the trough coming east and bringing rain to Kentucky:

The Canadian is strikingly similar to that run:

The EURO has a similar idea, but it’s likely too slow with the system moving in from the west:

One wonders just how much of an impact this tropical system can have on the overall pattern coming in behind it. Can this help to carve out a deeper trough than the models are seeing in the medium range for the middle of the month? That’s certainly possible.

Have a great day and take care.

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A very nice week of weather

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are all winning when it comes to our Election Day weather. Blue skies and pleasant afternoon temps rule the day and it only gets better from here. Temps turn milder as the week wears on.

Let’s review just how cold it was to start the week…

Folks, this has been a fall featuring some stout cold shots, the likes we haven’t seen around here in many years. This has been a totally different pattern from the past several years.

Temps for our Election Day will start in the upper 20s and end in the 50s under mostly sunny skies. Daily highs hit the 60s from Wednesday through Friday and may spike to 70 over the coming weekend. Again, this is the polar opposite of the past few Novembers when we didn’t hit 70.

Hurricane ETA is heading toward Central America as a rare Cat 4 November hurricane:

cone graphic

Notice how slow that system moves once it gets inland, but the forecast drifts it to the north by the end of the week. From there, we are likely to see this system drifting northward toward Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. As this happens, another big blast of winter weather invades the central and wester parts of the country.

These two extremes mean some wild model swings will continue as they figure out how to handle it all.

EURO

CANADIAN

GFS

Make it a very nice day and take care.

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Frigid start to a pleasant week

Good Monday, folks. The coldest air of the season is right on top of the region today, but the rest of the week looks fabulous. Big changes are on the way next week and we will take a look at that and take a look down the road to winter.

The day starts with readings in the low and middle 20s for most of the area and this could be within a few degrees of the record low of 22 in Lexington. Wind chills are in the upper teens. By the afternoon, highs range from the low to mid 40s with mostly sunny skies.

Election Day continues to look really good with upper 20s to start and 50s in the afternoon. This kicks off a pattern of AWESOME weather around here for the rest of the week into next weekend. Dry skies and pleasant temps in the 60s will be common. A few 70 degree high temps will also show up by the weekend. 70s in November are actually quite common, but I find it interesting that the past two November’s didn’t get to 70 in Lexington and the ensuing winters were mild with not much snow. I’ll get to more winter talk in a bit.

The pattern by the following week is likely to go back toward an extreme look with winter weather engulfing the west and plains and trying to roll back into the east. At the same time, we may have a tropical system lurking around Florida.

The models will exhibit wild swings with details, but they are consistent in showing a similar fight to what we just saw:

GFS

CANADIAN

EURO

You can clearly see how each model handles it all differently, but have an overall similar look with the trough coming east and a tropical system somewhere in the Caribbean/Gulf region.

Now that November has kicked off the cold weather season that runs through March, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the state of the Pacific Ocean. This is one of the biggest drivers of the weather across the country and water temp profiles can make a big difference in what kind of winter we have.

Here’s a look at the ocean temp anomalies across the globe:

First off, you will notice how much of the globe has water temps that are above normal. This has certainly been the trend of the past decade and this is making seasonal forecasting much more challenging because we really don’t have anything to compare it with.

If we purely focus on the Pacific Ocean, you notice the big blob of warm water off the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska and the increasing La Nina in the equatorial waters:

The location of that warm pool is the friend of anyone wanting a cold and snowy winter around here. Last year, it was there, but faded and pushed farther west, crushing our winter dreams. By this same point last year, it was already beginning to do just that. That’s not the case with this year… At least not now.

The La Nina continues to flex some muscle and should become moderate or even strong. The current coldest anomalies are showing up in a region known as 3.4. To see such a warm pool over top of such a strong La Nina isn’t very typical, so this will also lead to a limited number of true analogs from the Pacific.

So do both of these signals hold up through the winter? Here’s the new November-January forecast from the CFS V2:

Here’s the average for December-February:

The warm pool off the west coast and into the Gulf of Alaska holds tight as the La Nina becomes more west based in time.

Now, I have to digest all this and figure out where I think it means for our winter ahead. I should have the winter forecast out here in a few weeks, as usual. Some of my working analogs for the winter ahead are:

  • 2017/18
  • 2010/11
  • 2000/01
  • 1995/96
  • 1984/85
  • 1983/84
  • 1978/79
  • 1970/71
  • 1966/67
  • 1964/65
  • 1962/63

And NO, those are not solely based on how the Pacific Ocean looks.

Have a happy Monday and take care.

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