A few thoughts about winter

Good Tuesday everyone. Very warm air has surged into the Bluegrass State and is going to hang around for the rest of the week. Although things will be awfully toasty this week, I wanted to talk about what might be ahead.

This is the time of year when everyone starts asking about winter. Will we see snow and cold or have a repeat of last year’s warmth? I’m still early in the process of gathering information, but I do have a few goodies to share with you.

The fine folks at NOAA are out with their official winter forecast. Here ya go…

They are basically telling us we have a 50/50 chance of seeing everything. How on Earth is that a forecast?  It’s not, but let’s not beat that dead horse again. ;)

One of the seasonal forecast models I have been studying recently comes from Japan. This has been fairly consistent and has a decent track record dating back to last year. The latest forecast from it is out, and it looks like this…

It’s saying much of the country will be colder than normal, with a storm track up the east coast and along the Appalachian Mountains. To be perfectly honest, this is what a lot of the things I’ve been looking at lately suggest. If I were putting out a winter forecast today, it might look similar to the model above.

So there you have it: some initial thoughts on what could be ahead of us. There’s a shot that some winter weather wil come our way over the next few weeks. I will touch on that with the next update.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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