Interesting forecast taking shape

Good Thursday to one and all. Things continue to progress toward a major East Coast event late this weekend into early next week. Hurricane Sandy and a deep trough could hook up and create some wild weather for a lot of people, and some of that might spill into Kentucky.

The trend among the models continues to be toward a huge, possibly historic, event. The European Model continues to be steady in slamming Sandy into the east coast:

That track on Sandy is a bit farther southward into the Mid-Atlantic states. That’s about as wild as you can get, with heavy snow on the backside and a hurricane on the east side.

The GFS came around to this line of thinking earlier, then lost its way a bit. Still, it split the storm and ended up with a similar end result into the middle of next week. The GFS Ensembles Mean looks threatening:

What does all this mean for us? Here’s a breakdown:

– This is a very cold pattern, even colder than I originally thought.

– Winds are going to be a big player for us from Sunday through the middle of next week.

– There is the possibility that the East Coast storm works far enough west to give us some moisture. That could be in the form of rain or snow or a combo. Could is the key word.

– The strong northwesterly wind flowcan produce precipitation by itself. Lake-effect rain and snow showers might be possible.

While there is the potential for the first snowflakes of the season next week. It’s still a long way from becoming a certainty. A lot can change, but we do have a chance to get an early season taste of winter, and that’s something I will closely follow in the days ahead.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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