Tracking A Big Holiday Weekend Change

Good Monday everyone and welcome to Thanksgiving week. Our weather through the big week looks pretty good for this time of year. I cannot say the same about conditions for the upcoming weekend as much colder air invades the bluegrass state. All of this will likely lead us into a wintry pattern for the final week of November into early December.

Let’s start with the weather. Our pleasant stuff continues with a mix of sun and clouds and temps warming into the high 50s and low 60s. A weak system moves in for Tuesday and this may bring us an isolated shower or two. What about the “big 3″ later this week? Here ya go:

Black Friday will see a cold front diving in from the northwest and this will cause our temps to drop quickly during the evening. Some very cold air moves in behind this front for the weekend and that shows up nicely on the European Model:

Saturday’s temps may struggle to get to 40 degrees on a strong northwesterly wind. That same wind has a chance to deliver a few flurries to central and eastern Kentucky.

The pattern will then head toward a very wintry look by later next week into early December. I’m seeing some impressive signals for cold and snow across much of the eastern half of the country as we move into the new month.

One of the seasonal models I’ve been watching closely this fall comes from Japan. This model has had a pretty good track record of late and this was what it was forecasting for last winter…

The model nailed last winter’s massive warmth across the country. This same model has a MUCH different look for the winter of 2012-2013…

The drumbeat toward a colder than normal winter grows louder.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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