Friday Evening Thoughts

Good Friday evening. Changes are brewing for the weekend with clouds and showers increasing and this leads us into an active pattern that features winter returning next week.

The models are actually starting to agree with one another to some degree. An area of low pressure should develop across the lower Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and lift northward. It should then spawn a secondary low to our east and northeast by early Tuesday. Even the 6z run of the GFS showed this scenario…

Of course the 12z run showed something different.. but it is the GFS. The GFS Ensemble Mean shows the low to our east by Tuesday morning…

The Canadian Model…

The look of those three models suggest to me that we have gusty rains around Monday with some snow mixing in Monday evening and night with wraparound light snow and snow showers into Tuesday with temps in the 30s.

I still say some pretty good model swings are in store this weekend.

The active pattern continues toward the end of next week as another storm works in Thursday with a powerhouse cold front. This is likely to be a massive cutoff trough across our region and much of the east and that means very cold air overwhelms us and snow chances will carry us from the end of the week through Christmas weekend.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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