Derby week weather

Good Monday everyone and welcome to Kentucky Derby week. The eyes of the world will slowly turn toward the commonwealth this week, and everyone is hoping those eyes find some nice weather. Let’s see what kind of weather image we can paint for them.

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Highs will reach about 70 degrees for much of the region.

Current temperatures

Tuesday and Wednesday look like gorgeous spring days, with highs rising toward 80 degrees with partly sunny skies.

Thursday looks to be the day of change, as a big dip in the jet stream works our way. That dip will develop into a slow-moving low-pressure front that cuts off from the main flow. That will meander around here through Kentucky Derby weekend and bring unsettled weather.

Tracking exactly where this low sets up is crucial in determining how much of the nasty stuff we see. Here’s where the GFS takes the upper low:

GFS

That scenario would bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms our way from late Thursday into Friday. Showers would then continue into the weekend as colder air moves in. Take a look at the massive temperature drop on the GFS for Friday afternoon:

GFS 2

If this upper low decides to slow down or set up in a different region, that would mean a big change in the weekend forecast.

As of now, plan on the possibility of some ugly stuff and hope for the best. Make it a great day and take care.

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