Good Tuesday afternoon. It appears to be a wicked Halloween in the making for our region as we track a wintry blast.
The GFS now matches the European Model in showing the potent upper level system diving on top of us Friday and Saturday:
If the models are accurate with the intensity and track of that system, it could be pretty wild around here. That would create a tremendous amount of wind and crashing temperatures to go with rain and some snow. I’ve even seen similar situations produce thunder and lightning.
The GFS shows no shortage of precipitation across the region:
If things work out like that run suggests, rain would mix with and change to snow in many areas Friday evening and Saturday morning. The models continue to target the mountains of southeastern Kentucky with the best chance at seeing flakes and some accumulations:
None of this is set in stone by any means, but my confidence in a taste of winter is increasing. Odds favor the first flakes of the season, at least, falling in our region Friday night and Saturday morning. Can it turn into something a little more? That’s possible and something for us to continue to track in the coming days.