Good Wednesday afternoon. I continue to track the potential for winter weather blowing in for Halloween on Friday. The models continue to be supportive of the first snowflakes of the season, and even the potential for sticking snow in some areas.
The new GFS continues to drop a potent upper-level system into the region Friday and Friday night:
That type of system is very dynamic and creates a ton of rising air in the atmosphere. I’ve seen similar systems produce thunder and lightning as they pass through. The air associated with this originated in the arctic and will probably bring colder air than the computer models suggest. That would be saying something, because the models are plenty cold enough.
The GFS shows the change from rain to snow working in from the west and northwest later Friday:
The latest snowfall forecast from the GFS continues to show the potential for some sticking snow:
The most likely chance to pick up accumulation would be across the mountains of Eastern and southeastern Kentucky. That said, I could see some spots in Central Kentucky getting some slush Friday night. That’s when temps drop below freezing across the entire region. Lows will be in the upper 20s to about 30.
Winds will be very gusty and could top our between 30 mph and 40 mph at times. Those gusty winds combined with air below freezing could give us wind chill numbers like this by Saturday morning: