Milder air brings the rain

Good Saturday to one and all. Old Man Winter is cutting us a bit of a break this weekend with some milder temps pushing in. This milder air will also bring an increase in rain and gusty winds before the weekend is over. That won’t last long as much colder air returns for Thanksgiving week.

A couple of showers will try to pop early today, but we should see a lot of dry weather. Highs today soar well into the mid and upper 50s as winds pick up from the southwest.

Current temperatures

A strong area of low pressure develops to our west tonight and Sunday. That will lift northward into the western Great Lakes by Sunday night. That’s a path that will bring a big increase in wind and heavy rain:

NAMMuch colder air will slowly filter in behind that system on Monday.

I’m also keeping watch on the upcoming busy Thanksgiving travel period. A lot is going on in the atmosphere and the models are responding in the way I said they would… with trouble. They are having a difficult time in determining which system to develop and which system blows up.

The GFS Ensembles show the possibility of a more phased system by late Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Check out how energy dives in from Canada and merges with a disturbance moving in from the south…

Euro

Some kind of system should come out of all that, but the details are still murky to say the least. Most models do agree that some snow will be possible on Thanksgiving…

GFS 2

As always, we shall see.

Make it a great day and take care.

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