The cold takes hold

Good Monday to one and all. In the final days of 2014, the cold air is finally winning the weather battle. It’s been a milder-than-normal December, but the overall pattern is undergoing a major change that leads us back into colder-than-normal weather.

Monday will feature more clouds, but with some breaks trying to show up. Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Current temperatures

Some flurries will be possible Tuesday as even colder air sweeps in. A period of light snow might develop across far eastern and southeastern Kentucky during this time.

The final day of 2014 will be a cold one, with highs in some areas struggling to get out of the 20s. The temperature should be in the upper teens and low 20s as the ball drops on 2015.

A weekend storm system continues to show up clearly on the models, and we are seeing them finally sensing the arctic air. How are they doing that? By no longer cutting a storm all the way to Chicago and, instead, pushing it much farther south and east. That’s obviously a colder scenario for our part of the world.

The European Model continues to indicate a swath of winter precipitation for much of the state on Friday:


Again, that’s showing where a mix of precipitation falls on this particular model. The European Model then shunts the system eastward with a switch to cold rain, then back to some snow to end things late Saturday.

The Canadian Model offers a similar solution, with a mix of precipitation Friday, then to rain and then some snow late Saturday:


The new version of the GFS is trending in a similar direction:


As the models continue to finally catch on they are leaning way too warm on temps across North America, can that system wind up more south and east than the current model forecasts? That’s something to watch for in the coming days.

Whatever happens with that system, a true arctic front looks to sweep in behind that and could develop a wave of low pressure along it:

GFS 3I want to emphasize that individual storm systems and arctic blasts will differ on timing and impact. But this overall North American pattern is a complete reversal of the one we had for most of December.

Make it a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments