Active winter pattern ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Old Man Winter came roaring back into the bluegrass state and it appears he’s gonna stick around a while. We are beginning a very active period of winter weather as we close out January and say hello to February.

The snow from Friday night was impressive and has actually put Lexington into the above normal category on the winter. Here are some stats I shared on twitter:

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Lexington officially recorded 5″ of snow last night. Puts above normal for January and near normal for the winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

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Since November 1 Lexington has had 6.6″ of snow. Almost 1″ above normal and .1″ above this same time last winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

Where do we go from here? I have a whole lot of model maps to break things down for you.

The first set of maps deal with a clipper working in here later today into Monday. There continues to be a slight adjustment to the south on the track of this clipper. The GFS…

GFS

The NAM…

NAM

While the track on both models is a bit farther south, we would still need that to drop a littler farther south for the best snows to fly across Kentucky. As of now, showers develop Sunday with a quick switch to light snow Sunday night into Monday. Some accumulation can’t be ruled out. That’s also a very windy system that blows up into a monster as it turns the corner up the east coast. We may see a blizzard develop in the northeastern part of the country.

A weak system dives in behind that Monday night into Tuesday…

NAM 2

That won’t show up well on the models, but you can see the NAM is spitting out a stripe of snow from working in from northwest to southeast. Those can sometimes bring sneaky snow accumulations.

Things turn quiet by Wednesday before another clipper moves in late Thursday into Friday. The GFS…

GFS 2

The European Model…

Euro 2

That may bring another chance of showers ahead of it and light snow behind it.

That leads us into the weekend and several models continue to indicate the potential for a much bigger storm system impacting our region. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 3

That’s a week away and a lot can change, but the models have been showing the storm signal for several days in a row.

Storm or no storm… arctic air sweeps in during this same time and that’s how we open up the month of February.

Make it a  great day and take care.

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