Tracking a winter storm toward Kentucky

Good Tuesday to one and all. Another winter storm is getting ready to slam the Bluegrass State over the next couple of days. This continues to look like a heavy rain-to-snow and sleet setup across our part of the world. Throw in the potential for record cold to follow, and you have one harsh first week of weather for March.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– A warm front lifts northward across the state Tuesday and will bring a brief spike in temperatures. A light mix and some light rain will be possible early Tuesday before the milder air gets in.

–  A few gusty showers will be possible into the evening as temps rise well into the 50s.

– Our arctic front drops into the region late Tuesday night, with some heavy rain ahead of it early in the day. That could lead to some local high-water problems. This doesn’t look like a major flood.

– Arctic air oozes in from west to east, changing the rain to heavy sleet and snow during the day into the evening. Significant accumulations are likely through Thursday morning. Here’s my latest forecast:

SPECIAL

– With the combination of sleet and snow falling, it will be tough to pinpoint exact amounts. Areas that are mainly snow will push double digits. Areas with more sleet than snow will wind up on the low side of the scale. Either way, this is a very high-impact winter storm.

– The cold coming behind this for Thursday and Friday is nothing short of amazing to see on the models. Single-digit lows are almost a given, with many models showing zero or below. The GFS goes crazy with Friday morning lows:

GFS Temps

– That is probably overdone, but it’s an indication of just how crazy this setup is over the next few days.

Here’s your daily dose of tracking tools:

I will have updates as needed later Tuesday. Make it a good one and take care.

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