Active weather for the last week of October

Good Sunday, folks. One cold front is working across the region today, and that’s just the beginning of a very active pattern. This isn’t the best of news for the week leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, but there is some hope for better weather by the start of the big weekend.

Today’s front is slowly working across southern and eastern Kentucky with gusty showers along and ahead of it. Cooler air moving in behind the front will bring some better weather in as the day wears on.  Still, the threat for showers will be there for a few areas.

Track away:



Highs today will be in the 60s.

I have no changes to the forecast for the big storm system heading our way. Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico lifts northward into our region Tuesday and Wednesday. That means our first taste of rain from this storm reaches us by late Monday.

Here’s how the GFS sees the whole mess playing out…

GFSInitially, that’s a chilly rain with some embedded rumbles of thunder Monday night and Tuesday. Warmer and more unstable air lifts through here by Tuesday night and Wednesday. That should give us a good shot at showers and stronger thunderstorms. Notice the line of storms showing up late Tuesday night into Wednesday. That could be a low-topped line of high wind producing showers and storms.

As he low bombs out across the Great Lakes, our winds stay very gusty through Thursday as colder air sweeps in.

What about Breeders’ Cup/Halloween weekend? It looks like we get a break in the action Friday into early Saturday, but another storm is going to try and push in here before Saturday is over. This one comes courtesy of a cutoff low developing just to our southwest. That could mean an extended period of rain and storms for our region…

Euro 3Again, much of that would come AFTER Saturday, but it’s going to be a close call and one we will really need to watch in the coming days.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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