Snow squalls coming for Monday

Good Sunday to one and all. January continues to look much, much different than what we had back in December. As a matter of fact, we have the possibility of some harsh winter weather taking shape over the next few weeks.

The action gets started as we roll into the first full week of the new year. A strong cold front drops in tonight and unleashes a strong north to northwesterly wind flow. The stage is set for snow showers and squalls to kick in across central and eastern Kentucky. Bursts of snow will likely reduce visibilities and can cause slick travel to develop.

I’m not talking about a lot of snow, but the potential for local 1″ amounts will be there for some areas…

Special 2

Can we get a few overachieving snow squalls? Yep, and that’s something to watch for on Monday. Winds will also be very gusty with temps in the upper 20s and low 30s. Wind chill numbers will be in the teens.

Tuesday starts with some flurries and wind chills dipping into the single digits.

That brings us to the transition into a VERY cold pattern for much of the country. That transition starts late next week into the weekend with a couple of storm systems to impact our region. I don’t know exactly how these will play out, and I suspect the models won’t know until a few days before each of them. You guys have heard me talk about this many times before… When you’re getting true arctic air diving into the country with an active southern jet… It’s just too much for the models to handle.

That said, if you know what you’re doing, you can still get a good idea on the overall pattern and setup. This setup and pattern is screaming COLD!!! The European Ensembles show the core of the cold right on top of us in week two of the month…

Euro 2

Talk about a serious pattern flip from December! For more than a month now, I’ve thrown out the winter of 84/85 as an example of how a super warm December can flip straight into a harsh winter pattern across our region and the country. Unfortunately, many now in the weather business have no historical perspective of the actual weather.

So, how do we get to that DEEEEEEP trough across our part of the world? The models still spin up a storm system with arctic air coming in behind it. They just differ from run to run and model to model on what to do with it. The latest GFS sticks it right on the east coast…

GFS

That run shows a mega-snowsquall event for our region that carries on for several days as bitterly cold air moves in…

GFS 2

Look at the amount of cold pushing the squalls on that run…

GFS Temps

Make it a great day and take care.

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