A very active pattern takes shape

Good Friday to one and all. We have a weak front blowing across the region, but this isn’t bringing much more than  a few snowflakes and chilly air. The forecast from later this weekend to next week is ready to ramp it up a few notches. It’s an active setup as we roll into February.

Morning flurries Friday will quickly get out of town, with a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s, but gusty winds will make it feel colder.

Highs by Saturday soar well into the 50s and could tickle 60 to the south. Many areas will make a run at 60 on Sunday on a stout southwesterly wind. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and could produce a few showers by evening.

A much better chance of showers will be with us Monday:

Euro1

You can already see a  much bigger storm developing across the Southwest. That storm is going to crank into a monster in the Plains states by Monday and Tuesday. It will probably have a blizzard on the cold side and a severe weather outbreak on the warm side:

Euro

For us, that could mean record highs on Tuesday, Groundhog Day, as winds crank to 40 mph or higher. Strong to severe thunderstorms would then roll eastward that afternoon and evening.

Temps crash behind that and could be 40 degrees lower by late Wednesday as some wraparound snow showers fly.

This leads us back into a winter pattern that has harsh written all over it for much of the country. Look at the temperature behind that front on the GFS Ensembles from WeatherBell:

GFS TEMPS 1

Let’s look a little farther down the road. The average from the European ensembles for a five-day span in Celsius:

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To see those kinds of numbers from an ensembles run for a 5 day period is astounding.

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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