A very active start to February

Good Monday to one and all. February is off and running with some showers and thunderstorms working across the state. This might be the appetizer to the main course of storms that arrives late Tuesday. This could make for some bumpy times for the groundhog, because some of the storms could be severe.

Monday’s action becomes more scattered as the day wears on and comes to an end in the afternoon. Highs will be much lower than where we’ve been and where we’re going. Look at the bounce-back for Tuesday:

NAM

With enough sunshine, highs could hit 70 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Record highs for Groundhog Day would be blown away if that happens. 67 is the record for Lexington for Feb. 2, from 1893.

With the warm weather comes the potential for severe thunderstorms as a powerful cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon through the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Here’s the future radar to time the storms across the region:

NAM 2Colder air slowly swings in behind that system from west to east Wednesday. That cold gets bolstered by another arctic front that arrives over the weekend. That might have a band of light snow with it.

The longer-range models continue to pick up on a bigger signal for winter weather across the eastern half of the country early next week. Many of the models forecast several pieces of upper-air energy to come together and form a big system:

GFS 2

I leave you with your first day of February tracking tools:

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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