Another stormy week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. We are putting the wraps on a typical hot and humid July weekend in the bluegrass state. Upper 80s to low 90s have been common of late, but this is something we see MANY days every summer.

Temps out there today will be back into the upper 80s and low 90s. Humidity levels will make it feel hotter, and we could see scattered showers and storms going up.

Showers and storms increase as we roll into Monday and Tuesday. A few of the storms can be strong with heavy rainfall a possibility.

Showers and storms will increase as the week wears on. This action could REALLY ramp up as we inch closer to next weekend as a storm system develops across the Ohio Valley. Here’s the GFS:

GFS

The Canadian Model is very similar:

Canadian

Temperatures will come down during this time.

Looking forward to the fall and winter, yet?

This is the time of year I start to focus on some of the large scale signals forecast to show up for the fall and winter. We are coming off a super El Nino and many of the seasonal models have been forecasting a La Nina to develop this year. So far, the La Nina is REALLY struggling to get started, and those same seasonal models are now backing off on it.

The latest JAMSTEC seasonal model shows a neutral signal to, perhaps, weak La Nina forming this winter. It does so in the middle of a very warm Pacific. Here’s the December-February look at ocean temps:

Japan Model

Two things I’m watching. The potential for a low end La Nina, and a continuation of the very warm water off the west coast and into the Gulf Of Alaska. This +PDO signal has been one there for the majority of the past 3 winters, and is showing up very well for the winter ahead. As you know, I have maintained that signal has been the driving force for our past three wild winters around here. Last year’s super Nino muted the signal to a point, but it still produced another historic snowstorm with several other good snows.

Can we make it 4 in a row with memorable winter weather? The same run from the JAMSTEC shows colder than normal weather for much of the country from December-February:

Japan Model 2

While all of this is obviously VERY early in the ballgame, the forecast signals in the Pacific Ocean certainly argue for another fun winter.

Have a great day and take care.

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