Looking way down the weather road

Good Thursday to one and all. Fall arrives with summertime temps hanging tough across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. This will roll on through the weekend, before some big changes show up next week.

Highs Thursday through Saturday will generally range from 85 to 90 degrees, with morning lows about 60. Skies stay mostly sunny.

Change starts early next week with the potential for a big upper-level low to cut. The models always struggle with placement and timing of these things, but the signal for something has been there for a long time now.

The GFS starts things with a strong cold front passing through late Monday and Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms abound:


The European model is just a littler slower with this big system, with the bulk of the action arriving from Monday night through Wednesday:


As the upper low closes off and slows down, the European brings that right on top of our region for the second half of next week.

In recent weeks, I have been showing the warm pool of water across the Gulf Of Alaska and how it is still going strong. I first talked about this in the fall of 2013 and then homed in on it as the likely driving force for a harsh winter. That same warm pool was there for the following harsh winter. It was there last year, but was the super el nino muted it’s potential.

That warm pool continues to show up on the seasonal models for the winter ahead:


The latest temperature run from the WeatherBell CFS goes cold:


While that model does show some pretty big changes from day to day, I have noticed more and more days showing a colder look. Again: Take it with a grain of salt, but also as something of a learning tool.

In addition to the past few winters, other analog years showing up: 1983-84, 1995-96 and 2000-2001.

Have a great day and take care.

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