Tracking weekend changes and Hurricane Matthew

Good Wednesday, everyone. Fall break is here for a lot of students across our part of the world, and the local weather is looking good for the next few days. If any of these fall breakers booked a trip to the beach, things are turning ugly as Hurricane Matthew comes calling.

I will get to Matthew in a moment. First, let’s concentrate on the weather here.

Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be near 80 with a mix of sun and clouds. There is just the smallest chance of a shower to pop on a gusty wind:

The opening day for the fall meet at Keeneland is Friday, and the weather looks really good. Highs should be in the 70s with a mix of sun and clouds.

A cold front arrives Saturday with a gusty shower or thunderstorm, but this is not a big signal for much rain. Winds will crank up as highs stay in the 60s but fall quickly toward the upper 50s by early evening.

Sunday’s weather looks good, with highs in the low 60s with gusty winds and partly sunny skies. Temps by Monday morning could make a run toward the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Hurricane Matthew is going to have a huge impact from Florida to the Carolinas. Here’s where the storm is now:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

To complicate things even more, you will notice that Erica has formed northeast of Matthew, and there could be another named system developing behind it.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center includes hurricane warnings for the Southeast:

The east coast of Florida is likely to take a pounding Thursday and Friday. This will be a major hurricane as it hugs the coast all the way toward the Carolinas.

For more than a week, I have used the word extreme to describe this setup, and Matthew continues to go above and beyond that. As a matter of fact, there is even the potential for this storm to get even wilder.

Some of the recent models have Matthew missing the trough to the north and looping back toward the Bahamas and Florida for a second time. The European started this idea Tuesday, and the overnight GFS went ballistic with it. Watch this loop and notice the times and dates:

gfs

That loop starts Thursday and goes through Oct. 16. This is absolutely nuts and would be catastrophic if it were to play out that way.

The Canadian model is similar with the initial track, but it shows Matthew getting picked up by the trough and carried away after the weekend:

gfs

Have a great day and take care.

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