From frost to a freeze

Good Thursday, folks. Chilly air is about to turn rather cold on us as we head into the weekend. That will set the stage for the first hard freeze of the fall by Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Highs Thursday will be in the 50s with mostly sunny skies. That nice weather holds into Veterans Day, with highs in the middle 50s and a gusty wind kicking up. That wind is ahead of a cold front that will drop our temps for the weekend.

Saturday will find highs in the upper 40s to near 50 with a mix of sun and clouds. The day will start with lows in the upper 20s and low 30s. Widespread lows in the 20s are a good bet for Sunday morning. That is welcome news for fall allergy sufferers.

The pattern becomes much more active next week. There’s a small chance of some sprinkles Monday, but a greater chance of some chilly showers late Tuesday and Wednesday:

euro-2

The next system is forecast to become the biggie of the bunch by the end of next week. Here’s the European model:

euro-3

The GFS is just a bit more progressive with it but sings a similar song:

gfs

To fully understand how active that pattern is, take a look at the daily 500 mb height anomalies on the European model:

euro-gif

That’s a look that can produce a big winter storm across the country.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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