Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain are finally arriving across the region, and this will carry us through the final few days of November. Many areas might pick up more rain in the next three days than we have had in the previous two months combined!
The first round of rain arrives in the west early Monday and rolls east through the evening. The heaviest totals with this round will be across the central and western parts of the state:
Winds will also be very gusty late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Gusts of 40 mph will be possible in a few spots.
I have you all set to track the soaking drops:
The next system develops and moves across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. This time, the heaviest corridor of rain will be across the eastern half of the state:
Now, all those lines aren’t totally set in stone, because the weather doesn’t follow borders. This is a general 1 to 3 inches of rainfall coming to the entire region from Monday through Wednesday. Locally higher amounts are very possible.
Seasonally cold air filters in behind this second system as we roll into the first few days of December. Some low clouds could spit out some rain or snow showers if we get a true northwesterly flow for a time by the end of the week.
The next system cutting off across Texas and the four corners is truly an enigma for the models. With a developing -EPO, systems like that usually get kicked east, and that’s exactly the trend of the day. The European model brings a ton of rain in next weekend, with a threat of wet snow on the back side of the system:
If that system works out like the Euro shows, high water problems would be possible. Taken verbatim, the European model shows 5 inches of more of rain over the next week.
The GFS is a littler slower and weaker with that system, but also kicks it out:
The repercussions of that system kicking east, instead of hanging in the west, is for the much colder look to take over behind it. Watch the systems diving in on the GFS:
The past few runs of the GFS are now locking into what the ensembles have been showing: arctic air getting into the country:
Of course, we take time and numbers with a grain of salt from a week or two out. But the arctic air getting into the country fits the pattern and fits my winter forecast. December 1983 and December 1962 show up as some of the main analogs on the GFS. Both of those featured temps going well below zero during the month and led us into harsh winters. The winter of 1983-84 was my personal top analog for the winter forecast.
Have a great Monday and take care.