Winter weather settles in

Good Thursday to one and all. We have arctic cold settling in across the state. This action kicks off what appears to be a very wintry setup for much of the country over the next couple of weeks.

The really cold air is lagging behind this just a bit and filters in later Thursday. After a brief taste of the sun, clouds will quickly fill in again on a northwesterly flow. Low-level moisture into Friday can spit out some snow flurries.

You can see all the widespread moisture courtesy of this relative humidity map at 925 mb:

nam

Highs will be in the 20s, but it will never feel that “warm.”

The late weekend system continues to look like a winter weather-maker for our region. The European model has gone back to a scenario of a very strong storm system over our heads. I don’t think that’s correct, as the Euro has had a rough go of late in overdeveloping these kinds of systems.

Still, if it is correct, things would start getting wintry before going to rain and then ending as snow.

The Canadian model also has gone to a stronger storm system, but it’s keying more on the southern side of things. Instead of showing a potent low cutting into the Great Lakes, we have a Tennessee Valley system bringing snow to our region:

canadian

If we take that verbatim, the Canadian shows a big snowfall for Kentucky.

The GFS is more of a compromise with a weaker system:

gfs

Odds favor the greatest chance of snow across northern parts of the state, with rain and a mix elsewhere.

Next week will feature a major arctic attack for much of the country:

euro-2

That is one ugly-looking air mass that is likely to be introduced by a snowfall across our region.

Speaking of snowfall, the GFS ensembles continue to have “that look” over the next two weeks:

gfs-snow-2

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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