Good Sunday, everyone. We have a weak system rolling into the region later today. This will mainly be a rain maker into Monday, but winter returns for the rest of the week. We are tracking more arctic cold and winter weather chances.
Clouds will continue to thicken today as temps begin to slowly climb. Most areas should hit 40 this afternoon. Rain will develop later in the day, and with dry air in place, could begin as some sleet in the north.
Chilly rains then carry us into Monday before some of that tries to end as a flake Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Arctic air then seeps in here from the north late Tuesday into Wednesday. This should be accompanied by a streak of fast moving light snow heading from west to east:
That will be falling into arctic air, so we will have to watch for a nice little fluff factor. With very little moisture needed, these systems can sometimes overachieve. Just look back to the snows we had Friday. Zero models showed flakes because they missed the arctic/dry nature of the snow.
That arctic air then settles in for the rest of the week as it spreads out in a west to east fashion. That type of a setup can sometimes lead to trouble when the next system moves in, and that appears to be the case by the end of the week.
Shallow arctic air in place with overrunning moisture can lead to a wintry mess or ice. Here’s the Canadian:
That shows has an ugly look and is backed up by the European Model. Notice how cold the surface temps are compared to the thickness values on the left:
Warmer air aloft, cold air at the surface as precipitation moves in. That can spell some nasty stuff, and certainly bears watching. Here’s hoping for a warmer trend and rain or a colder trend and snow.
Have a great Sunday and take care.