Tracking frigid temps back into the region

Good Tuesday, everyone. After a small break in the arctic air, it is ready to settle back into the Bluegrass State in the coming days. This will lead to the coldest air of the season and the potential for some winter precipitation.

Before the arctic front arrives Wednesday, we have a sneaky little system zipping from west to east across the state on Tuesday. This will bring a very light mix of rain and snow to the south, and some fine light snow to the north.

The arctic front moving in Wednesday should also provide a little ribbon of light snow and flurries. Then, the frigid air drops in. Lows by Thursday morning make a run toward the high single digits in the north and 10 to 15 degrees elsewhere. Highs Thursday range from the upper teens to low 20s in many areas, but it will never feel that “warm.” Check out the wind chill numbers from the NAM:

nam

This will set the stage for Thursday night to be absolutely frigid, with widespread single digits if skies are clear. That arctic air is likely to beat the numbers on lows, just as it did a few days ago. The dew-point temperatures are forecast to minus-10. Wow: That’s one dry air and a number-busting cold air mass.

So, that’s the air mass in place as our next system moves in by late Friday and Saturday. It’s the first of two that might affect our weather over the weekend. The first probably works into the Ohio Valley, meaning a wintry mix to rain as temps spike very briefly.

An arctic front moves in Saturday night and Sunday, with low pressure along it. That probably means a rapid temperature drop to go along with increasing chances of sleet, freezing rain and snow. Here’s how the GFS sees both systems:

gfs

The Canadian continues to see the same thing:

canadian

The European model is on the same weather train. Watch that rapid temperature slide that can lead to an ice-up on its own:

euro-5

So, we have the “big three” of my modeling world all singing the same tune on the evolution of the weekend forecast. That doesn’t mean they are putting out a Grammy-worthy performance, but it does get your attention.

A recap of the weekend potential:

  • A wintry mix possible Friday afternoon and night
  • Saturday should see rain take over as temps spike and winds increase
  • Arctic front arrives Saturday night with a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow possible through Sunday.
  • The rapid drop in temperatures could be enough to freeze things up, with or without a ton of winter precipitation.
  • Arctic cold then settles in for Sunday and Monday.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments