Tracking Christmas weekend and beyond

Good Thursday, everyone. Christmas is getting closer and closer, and things continue to look rather wet and mild. This pattern hangs around into next week, but colder changes show up as we close out the year.

Highs Thursday will be in the mid and upper 30s, with just a slight chance of a few snow flurries.

I have no changes with the Christmas weekend Grinch storm. The first surge of rain from that moves in Friday night and Saturday, Christmas Eve. Locally heavy downpours are possible, with the heaviest in the west and south. The NAM is spitting out some big numbers for some areas:

nam

Temps surge on Christmas Day and Monday ahead of a cold front. That front arrives late Monday with gusty showers. Seasonally cold air comes in behind that to set the stage for another system to move in here by next Wednesday or Thursday:

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The European model has a nice shot of cold coming in behind that and would indicate some snow showers and flurries to end 2016.

You can see that shot of cold going all the way into the Deep South:

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The European ensembles agree with the deep trough:

euro-4

I’m watching the first week of January for the pattern to try to reload with arctic air. The models are forecasting a big ridge to develop across Alaska. For the past three winters, that has been the signal for some harsh winter weather into our region. I’m not ready to say that’s real just yet, but the GFS Parallel has a frigid look again:

gfs-gif

We shall see what happens, but that 1983 analog of mine has been a good one across the country, so far. It had a cold December, but not much snow, … just like this December. It did take a harsh and snowy turn in January before breaking mild in February.

Have a great day and take care.

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