From thunderstorms to arctic cold and snow

Good Monday to one and all. 2017 is off and running and Mother Nature is bringing it in terms of the weather. This is a very busy week with thunderstorms on the move today, and arctic cold and snow threats later this week.

Today will be very windy with temps making a run into the 60-65 degree range. As low pressure works in from the southwest, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some of these can be strong this evening with a greater severe weather threat to our west and south:

Today’s Risk Area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current Watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas
Current MDs

An arctic front moves in here Tuesday night with the possibility of some snowflakes just behind it. This sets the stage for a very cold stretch of weather and a good chance for, at least, a light snowfall. As expected, each model run handles the Thursday through Saturday systems differently.

The GFS had lost the late week system for the past several days. All of a sudden, it found it again last night:


Here’s the snowfall map from that particular run (it will change many times):


At least for one run, the GFS fits the “lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley” setup the pattern has been suggesting for a while now.

The individual members of the GFS have several members showing a healthy system:


The GFS and its Ensembles have a friend in the Japanese model:


The Canadian Model has a light snowfall Thursday into Thursday night:


It then follows that up with a suppressed system, bringing a snow swipe to southeastern Kentucky later Friday:


The European Model has a similar look with the Thursday system:


It also shows a suppressed solution for the Friday storm:


Have a great 2nd day of the year and take care.

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