Good Monday to one and all. 2017 is off and running and Mother Nature is bringing it in terms of the weather. This is a very busy week with thunderstorms on the move today, and arctic cold and snow threats later this week.
Today will be very windy with temps making a run into the 60-65 degree range. As low pressure works in from the southwest, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Some of these can be strong this evening with a greater severe weather threat to our west and south:
An arctic front moves in here Tuesday night with the possibility of some snowflakes just behind it. This sets the stage for a very cold stretch of weather and a good chance for, at least, a light snowfall. As expected, each model run handles the Thursday through Saturday systems differently.
The GFS had lost the late week system for the past several days. All of a sudden, it found it again last night:
Here’s the snowfall map from that particular run (it will change many times):
At least for one run, the GFS fits the “lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley” setup the pattern has been suggesting for a while now.
The individual members of the GFS have several members showing a healthy system:
The GFS and its Ensembles have a friend in the Japanese model:
The Canadian Model has a light snowfall Thursday into Thursday night:
It then follows that up with a suppressed system, bringing a snow swipe to southeastern Kentucky later Friday:
The European Model has a similar look with the Thursday system:
It also shows a suppressed solution for the Friday storm:
Have a great 2nd day of the year and take care.