All eyes on the weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a much better weather day taking shape out there, but it’s all eyes on the weekend forecast. A developing storm system might bring a round of winter weather our way by Saturday and Sunday.

In the short term, things look really good Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Skies will stay partly cloudy.

Thursday looks even better, with highs hitting the 60s. Winds will be gusty ahead of a system zipping quickly across the region by Friday. That’s mainly a chilly shower-maker, but it does usher in much colder air.

That is on the leading edge of an arctic air mass spreading out from west to east across the northern half of the country. At the same time, very warm air is taking up residence across the South and Southwest. That leads to a storm system to develop across the Plains states, along the boundary:

That system will then roll eastward by Saturday and Sunday. The exact path of that low will, obviously, mean all the difference in the world for our weather.

If this thing takes a track across the Tennessee Valley, look out. That could deliver a big winter storm for our region. If it comes farther north and right across the state, that winter storm is off to our north. There’s also the chance the cold is stronger than the models show, crushing the storm system into something rather wimpy.

The European model shows a farther south and slightly weaker scenario:

The snowfall map from the European model shifts the focus on snow potential into the southern half of the state:

The average snowfall from 21 different members of the GFS ensembles:

So, let’s slow our roll a bit and wait to see the path of the low become better defined. That will be the difference between zero snow or a lot of snow where you live. Both extremes are, at least, a possibility.

Have a great day and take care.

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