Good Monday, everyone. We are rolling our way toward the big Memorial Day holiday weekend, and our weather pattern looks very active. This comes with some big temperature swings and more in the way of … wait for it … wait for it … rain and storms.
Highs Monday are in the upper 60s and low 70s, with a mix of sun and clouds. The lower-than-normal temps will make for a great-feeling day.
Highs quickly rebound for Tuesday as the numbers approach 80 on a strong southwesterly wind. This is ahead of a storm system working in for the middle of the week. This might have strong storms ahead of it and cool showers behind it:
How cool can things get for Thursday? Here’s hoping the GFS is just messing with our emotions:
Temps will surge again by Friday into the start of the big weekend. That might come with a stormy price, with rounds of showers and storms showing up:
Another system can bring some storms early next week, followed by another shot of below-normal temps.
Let’s take a look way down the weather road and see what one of the seasonal models has to say. The JAMSTEC model has had a pretty decent track record in recent years, so I wanted to see how it was looking for the rest of the year.
It has a warm look for June through August:
You can see a small area of normal temps from the Midwest into the northern Ohio Valley, but’s that’s a pretty warm signal.
That warm signal then begins to really cool by fall. Take a look at the September-through-November temps:
What about the winter ahead? A very cold signal is showing up on the model for December-through-February:
The progression of the seasons above is typical of an emerging weak El Nino, which looks likely to develop this year.
As mentioned, the JAMSTEC has been on a “hot” streak and correctly nailed this past winter’s warmth. Here’s the forecast issued from last May:
Not too bad.
Have a great day and take care.