Fall starts with some sizzle

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s the first full day of fall, but it feels more like the dog days of summer. Highs are deep into the 80s and this is a trend that continues for a few more days, before chilly changes move in next week.

With today’s warm and muggy air mass, I can’t rule out isolated showers and storms going up:

This steamy setup will then continue into early next week.

Hurricane Maria continues to churn away east of the Bahamas. Here’s the latest on the still major storm:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

cone graphic

Back here in Kentucky, we are tracking a fall cold front our way for the second half of the week. This front arrives on Wednesday with a broken band of showers and storms. This may be followed up by another storm system next weekend:

Chilly temps will then sweep in behind the initial cold front.

With fall underway, it’s time to start thinkin ahead to later fall and winter.

While I keep looking over the analogs and data, I’m also looking at some of the seasonal forecast models. While I don’t put a ton of stock in these models, they can offer some clues at where things are headed.

The CSA Model comes up with a forecast based purely on soil moisture. Here is the month by month breakdown from November through January:

 

That model would make for a very fun winter around here!

The CFS Model changes a gazillion times a week, and I’m really not a fan of the model data beyond one month. Still, the latest update had a cold November and December:

Have a great day and take care.

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