The tropics could send rain into Kentucky

Good Thursday, everybody. We have a weak front dropping into the region, but the main focus of the forecast is on the tropics. Another system is heading toward the Gulf of Mexico and could throw rain into the Bluegrass State this weekend.

Before we get to that mess, we have a small chance of isolated showers and storms across the north. Here’s regional radar to track the action:

Friday looks dry and warm for the opening of the fall meet at Keeneland. Highs hit the low 80s.

Tropical depression 16 has developed off the coast of Nicaragua and will lift northwestward toward the Gulf Of Mexico:

This is likely to become tropical storm Nate and then Hurricane Nate once it gets into the Gulf to start the weekend. As expected, the projected track from the National Hurricane Center bends to the east after Saturday:

cone graphic

A few thoughts:

  • The prime time for our heavy rain threat is late Saturday through Monday.
  • How much rain depends on exactly where Nate makes landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • A landfall west of Florida has a greater chance of bringing heavy rain to Kentucky.
  • Nothing is set in stone with this setup.
  • If Nate does bring rain to Kentucky, it would be the fourth tropical system of the season to do so.

The GFS continues to show a cold front on top of our region, as tropical moisture is drawn northward late Saturday and early Sunday. What’s left of the Hurricane then moves right on top of us:

That would bring a lot of heavy rain into our region, if it works out that way.

The European model was east of all this over the past few days, probably because it’s having problems with a trough out of the west. The latest run is coming west with a big interaction with the front:

That would bring heavy amounts of rain to Central and Eastern Kentucky, followed by a big outbreak of chilly air:

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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