Heavy rain threat this weekend

Good Friday, folks. Our weekend is starting out on a very nice note, but that changes in a hurry later Saturday and Sunday. A potent setup is likely to bring rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms across our part of the world.

Before we get to the bad, let’s focus on the good. The weather for the first day of the fall meet at Keeneland looks awesome. Highs will be in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.

A cold front approaches the state Saturday, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will spawn an increase in showers and storms late in the day and in the evening.

Tropical Storm Nate is heading into the Gulf of Mexico and is part of a convoluted tropical mess in the Caribbean:

Nate will work past the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico later Friday, probably becoming a hurricane as it does. The track from the National Hurricane Center has finally caught up to reality, focusing more toward Louisiana than Florida with landfall.

The track then brings Nate into Kentucky:

cone graphic

Cold fronts meeting up with tropical systems really up the ante for heavy rainfall. The front itself is likely to have tropical moisture to work with well before Nate arrives. We will need to watch for a band of very heavy rain to develop along this front Saturday night and early Sunday. Then, the rain from Nate arrive later Sunday into Monday.

Several inches of rain will be possible, giving us a flood threat across parts of the state. The European model has an area of 5 inches or more on the latest run:

Which area of the state has the greatest risk? It’s too soon to tell, but I will hone in on that later today and into Saturday.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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