Patchy frost possible by Tuesday morning

Good Monday, folks. The chilliest air of the young fall season has invaded the bluegrass state to start the week. This air may be cold enough to deliver some patchy frost by Tuesday morning.

I’ll focus on the frost potential and a much ¬†colder look taking shape for the end of the month.

Firs up… The frost potential. With clear skies and highs in the upper 50s today, the stage is set for cold air to spill in overnight. Many areas will drop into the upper 30s, but the Hi Res NAM continues to show much colder readings:

That may be a few degrees too cold, but you get the idea, Tonight is a cold one. A kiss of frost on the pumpkins is possible by Tomorrow morning.

The rest of the week looks amazing with temps in the 60s through Wednesday, then 70-75 from Thursday into the start of the weekend. Things look mainly dry during this time.

A cold front may bring some showers and storms in here by Sunday or Monday, and this sets off a much colder look for the final week of October.

Check out the deep dip in the jet stream being forecast for later next week:

That happens as a ridge goes up the west coast of North America, while blocking develops near Greenland. That pushes cold air into the eastern half of the United States and can sometimes be introduced by a big storm. The GFS has been pointing toward this for a while:

This kind of setup has, at least, a chance to bring some flakes into the Ohio Valley and into the Appalachian mountains. The GFS:

GFS Ensembles:

That’s still a long ways away, so take the flake threat with a grain of salt. Still, similar patterns have been able to produce some pre-Halloween flakes around here. October 2013 comes to mind.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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