Good Sunday, folks. We are dealing with another warm day, but massive changes are blowing in for the week ahead. A heavy rain maker will help unleash a much colder pattern that carries us through the rest of the month into early November.
Let’s start with today and roll forward. Clouds will thicken up with mainly dry skies through the afternoon. We will be watching the western sky for a shower or thunderstorm sneaking in before the day is over:
Low pressure develops to our southwest on Sunday and rolls across the state Sunday night and Monday. This will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and gusty winds:
The rainfall potential from this system is impressive. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall to much of the state, with locally higher amounts possible. The GFS is showing enough to cause some local high water issues:
Cold air crashes in behind the departing storm with temps falling all day Tuesday. Strong northwesterly winds will create numerous showers:
Temps by Wednesday stay in the 40s for highs. Lows drop into the 30s and should go below freezing by Thursday morning.
Winds will be gusty as temps recover some by Thursday and early Friday. This is ahead of a colder push of air arriving for the weekend. It’s likely to be accompanied by some decent rains along and ahead of our front:
Can the cold air catch up to the back edge of the rain shield and produce some flakes across the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains? Hmmm
The overall pattern continues to show similarities to November of 2014. A few days ago, I outlined the super typhoon connection from that year to this year as a potential indicator of where this setup may lead us.
Just take a look the endless troughs digging in here through the first week of November…
That spells COLD:
If the pattern plays out as it appears to, it would be hard for us not to get the first flakes of the season at some point by the first few days of November.
Have a sensational Sunday and take care.