Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a very active and cold pattern taking shape for the final week of October, and it is likely to carry us into the start of November. Several cold shots are lined up, ready to take aim at the Bluegrass State.
Let’s start with the shot of cold arriving Tuesday. It’s behind a front, touching off scattered showers as it swings in from the northwest:
Highs on Tuesday hit the 50- to 55-degree range early on, then drop into the upper 40s behind the boundary. That sets the stage for a relatively cold day Wednesday. Much of the region should top out with highs from 45 to 50, but the NAM keeps coming in under than that:
Gusty northwesterly winds will make it feel much colder than what your car thermometer shows. That same wind could also produce a few more showers and low clouds.
Thursday starts in the low 30s, with highs hitting the 60s by afternoon. This will be ahead of a strong cold front showing up by late Friday. It will have a stout temperature drop of 20 to 30 degrees behind the front:
You can still see how the GFS is trying to get the cold to catch some of the precipitation shield, giving parts of the Ohio Valley a shot at a few snowflakes:
We know temps are going to be cold this weekend as a deep trough digs in:
Notice the storm system along the east coast. That’s from the GFS, and it sometimes is too far east with this type of system. This system might have a bit of a tropical connection from a disturbance coming from the Caribbean and up the East Coast.
The trend on the European model is for much more interaction between the cold trough and that system coming up the East Coast:
The European model would be a very nasty weekend, with low temps, gusty rain and the potential for some snowflakes to fly … especially in the mountains of Eastern Kentucky. That could be a big high-mountain snow maker across the Appalachian Mountains. We will need to watch for a western trend in the coming days.
You can see a similar trend on the Canadian, which is more wrapped up and farther west with it than the GFS:
Have a great Tuesday and take care.