A busy pattern before Thanksgiving

Good Monday to one and all. We have a very busy pattern taking shape this week, and that’s likely to roll into Thanksgiving week. This setup take on more of a winter look before the big day arrives.

Lots of clouds will be with us Monday with highs on the seasonal side. That seasonal brand of chill carries us through the middle of the week, when another shower-maker arrives. The greatest chance of rain is on Wednesday.

All eyes continue to be on a potent storm system rolling our way for Friday and early Saturday.

This one has the looks of a big-time wind maker across our region, and it might even throw some strong storms our way:

A big temp spike ahead of that front will be followed by a big temp drop behind it. The real cold lags just behind the front and arrives Saturday night and Sunday:

If a true northwesterly wind develops Sunday or Sunday night, then some snowflakes will be possible. Some of the recent models have been showing this possibility:

That might be a huge lake-effect outbreak following this storm.

The various operational models will have the usual wild swings on how the pattern looks. You will see big changes from run to run, because that’s what operational models do from this far out. The ensembles are made up of dozens of individual runs, spitting out the average from each. Granted, the data is smoothed out, but it’s a good indication of where the pattern goes.

The GFS ensembles show a healthy cold shot late this weekend, with cold digging in for Thanksgiving week:

Those same “smoothed-out” ensembles are also showing snowflake chances late this weekend through Thanksgiving weekend:

Even individual runs of the operational members show the wintry potential from time to time. The GFS shows this for Thanksgiving:

The Canadian model also is showing some wintry potential in the lead-up to Thanksgiving:

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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