Our busy pattern gets started

Good Wednesday, folks. The active weather pattern we’ve been touting, gets started with a cold front moving in. This looks to be the appetizer to a much bigger storm system rolling into town this weekend.

As our cold front moves closer Wednesday, rain will arrive from west to east. The greatest chance of rain comes in the afternoon and evening, along with very gusty winds. Temps could spike into the 50s ahead of the rain, then drop into the 40s as the drops kick in:

Thursday finds us fighting lots of clouds with a chilly wind blowing. Temps could struggle into the low and middle 40s in many areas.

That brings us to our weekend storm system.

This will be a very strong storm system, but it’s not looking like the powerhouse it was a few days ago. Winds are going to be the main problem around here, with gusts of 40 mph or greater from Friday evening through Saturday morning. That’s when the front slams in with showers and some low-topped thunderstorms:

That strong northwesterly wind really kicks in for a very cold Sunday. Depending on the exact direction of that wind, a few flurries will be possible, especially in the east:

Wind chills with this could drop into the teens at times late Sunday and Monday morning.

Another cold shot then shows up by Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day of next week. We are about a week away from that cold shot, so the delivery method of that cold will change. The latest GFS shows some cold turkey:

This particular model run has some frigid wind chills to start the big holiday:

I mentioned earlier how the European model seems to be having trouble in how it’s handling the pattern over the next week or so. It was a model that was the first to show the upcoming cold shots, then all the others came aboard. Now, the Euro has really scaled things back.  Normally, I side with the European, but drastic changes in a model family tend to make me a little skittish. Plus, the troughs ejecting from the southwest would seemingly play into the bias of the model.

To illustrate the point, compare and contrast the snowflake potential from the ensembles over the next 2 weeks:

GFS

European

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments