A colder-than-normal holiday week

Good Monday, everyone. We have made it to Thanksgiving week, and our weather pattern continues to look colder than normal. I’m tracking two shots of cold that try to bookend the long holiday weekend.

Our Monday is a chilly but dry one. Morning lows are in the 20s, with a wind chill in the teens. Afternoon readings will rebound into the 40s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Another cold front arrives Tuesday night, bringing a blast of cold for the busy travel day Wednesday. The European model even shows a slight chance of a rain or snow shower behind the front in Northern Kentucky:

The air behind this is much colder than normal for Wednesday. Several models keep the highs in the mid- and upper 30s:

Winds will be gusty, so it will feel quite a bit colder than that,

Thanksgiving looks mainly dry, with lows in the 20s in the morning and afternoon temps from 40 to 45. Winds will still be rather gusty, adding a bit of a chill to the air.

Temps for Black Friday shoppers will be in the 20s for the wee hours of Friday morning.

The numbers briefly return to near normal to start the weekend, but another cold front moves in from the northwest. The GFS ensembles have done a fantastic job showing our “bookend” cold shots for the long Thanksgiving weekend. You can see both showing up on this animation:

The operational models continue to be confused by exactly how to handle those shots, so you’re going to get some big swings. I recall saying the same exact thing a week ago about the big storm system that just moved through here. Remember how many of them lost the intensity of the storm and the cold coming behind it? You just have to realize operational models are going to do that. It’s the nature of the beast, and that’s why it’s so important not to waffle with each run.

Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

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