Milder temps start the week

Good Monday, everyone. The first half of the week continues to look pretty mild across the region, but major changes are lurking as we head into next week. It’s a wild look taking shape as we head into December.

In the short-term, temps are generally in the 50s for highs, with a shot at a 60 through Wednesday. That’s just ahead of a late week system that will bring an increase in gusty rains by Thursday.

The models are going back and forth on just how much cold air can come in behind this for Friday. Some of the recent GFS runs are able to tap enough cold air for a flake to mix in with the rains:

The first week of December is when we continue to see massive oveall changes showing up. I’ve highlighted the battle between the cold signals and the mild signals over the past week. The blocking is going to win this battle, sending much of the country into a deep winter setup by late in the first full week of December. That’s a setup that should hang through the holidays.

The Ensembles have been showing this for a while, and now we have the operational models showing the same thing. The GFS shows a major storm that unleashes the cold:

Those maps for December 6-8.

This is EXACTLY when ALL Ensembles have been showing the winter pattern surging into much of the country. The AVERAGE of 51 members of the European Ensembles is crazy cold for almost the entire country:

The control run of the European is brutal across the land:

The blocking forecast to set up is straight out of the playbook of some of the more extreme winters across the country.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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