Winter gets ready to show up

Good Friday to one and all. December is off and running with a seasonal chill in the air, but milder days are on the way for the weekend. This air won’t last very long, because Old Man Winter is ready to crash in early next week.

Highs on Friday are in the upper 40s to low 50s with mostly sunny skies. The rest of the weekend will feature seasonally chilly mornings and mild afternoons.

The changes start later Monday and Tuesday. That’s when a powerful cold front enters the picture. Temps ahead of this front will be in the 60s, but with a 30- to 40-degree drop behind it. Widespread showers and thunderstorms might give way to a few snowflakes:

The GFS keeps with the theme of heavy rain and storms Tuesday, with a major drop in temps Tuesday night and Wednesday, with some snowflakes showing up:

Here’s the model showing the switch from thunderstorms to snow in just a few hours:

I’m not sold on that exact scenario playing out, but there is certainly a possibility.

The European model is giving me a different look with each run. I expect all the models to do just that in the coming days, because this is a pretty extreme pattern shaping up.

The European model takes the front through a little quicker Tuesday night and brings in some light snow for Wednesday:

The model then doesn’t know what system to focus on from Friday through Sunday, but produces some rounds of light snow in that deep trough:

The GFS keeps putting more emphasis on a potent clipper diving in:

And keeps showing another right behind that:

If we get true clippers in this type of pattern, those things can really overachieve.

As the blocking pattern continues into the middle of the month, watch how the arctic cold keeps reloading and diving in:

Extreme options in all modes are on the table.

It took until just hours before December starts, but the CPC is finally on board with a colder-than-normal month:

Have a great Friday and take care.

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