Old Man Winter arrives this week

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up the first weekend of December with plenty of sun and mild temps. This mild weather has one more day left in the tank, then Old Man Winter takes control of the pattern.

Highs today will be in the upper 50s and low 60s with mainly sunny skies. Temps on Monday may reach the middle 60s on a strong southwesterly wind. That wind is ahead of a powerful cold front that arrives on Tuesday.

Showers and storms will be along and ahead of the front:

The cold northwesterly wind flow then kicks for the rest of the week. That’s a much colder than normal setup that grows colder and colder with each passing front.

The Thursday-Saturday period has some potential to it. The European Model is keeping the initial front along the east coast, allowing for a storm system to develop along it late Thursday and Friday:

That particular run brushes eastern Kentucky with some snow. Is the European onto something or just on something? That remains to be seen. I suspect the bias of holding too much energy back is coming into play, leading to a semi-phantom system along the east coast. We shall see.

Regardless, the model has the strong clipper diving in here late Friday into Saturday:

That’s a snowmaker across our region and has shown up on every GFS model run for many days now, and it continues with the late afternoon run. The new GFS also shows some kind of system along the east coast, but is a little farther east then the European. It also shows one heck of a digging clipper into our region:

Again, that would be a snowmaker across Kentucky and much of the Ohio Valley. Very cold air swings in behind that as winds keep cranking. The wind chill numbers keep trending lower next weekend:

The GFS has not skipped a beat in showing another clipper and arctic air surge coming in behind that:

I’m beyond impressed with how consistent the GFS has been with the overall evolution of this pattern and how it’s handling each of these systems diving in. Of course, none of it has happened yet, but it really isn’t waffling much. I’m sure I just totally jinxed the model runs later tonight and Sunday. 🙂

The European Model has actually been the one playing catch up to the GFS, GFS Ensembles and even it’s own European Ensembles. It seems to have figured it out today. Watch the cold shots through the end of the run:

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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