Tracking the change to winter

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a very busy day of weather across the Bluegrass State as a cold front slams through. This begins the transition to a wintry pattern that kicks into high gear later this week into the weekend.

Our day is starting with gusty winds near 40 mph at times, with highs near 60. Showers and thunderstorms are rolling through ahead of a strong cold front. As the front passes through, temps take a big tumble into the upper 30s and low 40s by late afternoon:

This brings in a seasonal brand of cold for Wednesday, with temps in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The air grows colder as we head into Thursday, with highs in the low and middle 30s. The stage is set for the possibility of some light snow or flurries late in the day.

The main systems arrive over the weekend, with the models having the usual timing and intensity problems. That always seems to happen in the three- to five-day window from an event.

The European model shows snows along the East Coast from a couple of systems late in the week and the weekend. It has our clipper moving in Friday night and Saturday:

The model keeps trending a little stronger with it.

The European model then brings another clipper in Sunday night and Monday:

With a much stronger system following that by Tuesday:

That’s being pushed by bitter cold air pressing into the eastern half of the country. Guess what’s behind that system? Another clipper:

Let’s check in to see what the GFS is showing for these same systems. The model is beginning to see the east coast snows, while trying to figure out the impact it has on our Thursday-Sunday pattern:

We won’t see the models fully understand this setup until we get to Wednesday or Thursday.

The individual members of the GFS ensembles show the spread for the weekend snow potential:

Several runs are impressive with the snow, but others show some very light stuff. We shall see.

Here’s what I can say: This setup is likely to deliver our first light accumulating snow of the season at some point from Friday through early Sunday. Arctic cold winds blow behind that for Saturday and Sunday, with temps tanking.

The GFS also shows a small clipper by Sunday night, and it goes toward the bigger system idea early next week:

Like the European, it’s showing bitterly cold air invading the east and has more action following that later next week:

As I have been saying, we will have lots of snow chances between now and Christmas. I cannot tell you anything more beyond that, but the pattern has a lot of potential!

Have a great day and take care.

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