Watching an active holiday pattern

Good Saturday, everyone. Our half and half weekend is here, with today being the better half. The milder winds will give way to showers for our Sunday, with a very active setup taking shape as we roll toward Christmas.

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs from 45-50 on a gusty wind. That wind will bring an increase in moisture for Sunday, resulting in clouds and some showers. This won’t be a lot of rain, but it may make for a damp day at times:

Temps will be in the low and middle 40s. Again, this is not going to be a washout of a day.

Temps bounce back to near 50 on Monday with more clouds and isolated showers. That shower trend will carry us into the middle of the week with a little dip in temps.

Thursday will find us ahead of a major cold front, with gusty southwest winds boosting temps deep into the 50s. That front moves in on Friday with gusty showers and crashing temps:

My thoughts continue to be the same as when I put them out on this map from Monday:

The potential is there for winter weather for much of our region, as arctic air collides with mild air across the southeast. Given the extreme nature of the setup, the operational models are struggling to get a grasp on the evolution of this.

The GFS continues to go back and forth on showing the potential for significant winter weather: Some of the latest runs have shown an impressive system:

The European Model is all over the place with what it’s been showing, too. One of the latest runs was even more impressive with the winter potential:

Folks, every single computer model run is going to change from run to run. That change may be quite dramatic, so do NOT get attached to any one solution. It doesn’t matter if it shows snow, ice, rain or absolutely nothing.

I’m going to keep saying the same exact thing: We have the potential for all modes of precipitation Christmas weekend into Christmas week. From rain to snow to ice to a combo of the three, everything is on the table. That’s about as in depth as I can get from a week away.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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