Active pattern in the run up to Christmas

Good Sunday to one and all. It’s a very active pattern settling into our region, with all eyes on the wintry potential by Christmas weekend. The models continue to struggle with how it all plays out, but the potential is there for winter weather.

In the short-term, we have some light showers moving across the region today. This is not much rain at all, but it should dampen the ground in many areas before the day is over:

Additional light showers will be possible through the middle of the week, with temps running a little above normal.

Last Monday, I put together a map to show the potential pattern I was seeing two weeks in advance:

Since then, the computer forecast models have been going back and forth on how to handle the pattern. Now that we are a week away, the GFS is trying to show a little consistency in the overall look of the setup. It continues to press a strong cold front through here on Friday, then slowing it down to our south and east with waves of low pressure working along it. With such a strong temperature gradient present across the country, the possibility is there for a ton of moisture to develop.

The new GFS continues to be all about that significant winter weather threat setting up right on top of us Christmas weekend into Christmas week:

Here’s the snow forecast from that particular run:

The potential for freezing rain:

None of the above maps are a forecast from me, I’m simply giving you a look at what the models are showing. Please keep that in mind. I continue to maintain that all modes of precipitation are possible during this time, but it’s too early for anyone to get more specific than that. Your Christmas could be as white as it is wet or vice versa. There are a lot of variables at play, and we are still a few days away from having a better handle on how this all plays out.

Regardless of which precipitation scenario plays out, there is an increasing threat for the frozen tundra to engulf much of the country right after Christmas:

Make it a great day and take care.

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