A busy pattern ahead of Christmas

Good Monday to one and all. We have a very active setup taking shape, with all weather eyes focused on Christmas weekend into Christmas week. It’s one that may provide us with wintry weather for the big day.

Let’s get started with today’s weather then roll ahead.

Lots of clouds will be noted today with a scattered of showers. Overall, it’s another gloomy day with temps likely staying in the 40s.

Here’s your regional radar to track the light showers:

Tuesday should feature more of the same with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

I’m watching a stronger system rolling our way for Wednesday. The models are split on just how much of an impact this has on our weather, with the European Model giving us the best chance for rains. The NAM is also spitting out rain, especially across the southern half of the state:

The GFS wants no part of bringing rain into Kentucky:

The GFS Ensembles don’t even agree with the operational GFS, instead, they look more like the European and NAM for Wednesday:

I’m showing all this because, even in the shorter term, we are finding the models having a tough go at figuring out what to do. If we can’t get them to agree on the Wednesday system, how on earth do we expect them to figure out Christmas weekend and Christmas week? The answer to that is… I don’t.

The European Model continues to bounce back and forth between extremes. The last run had the cold overwhelming the pattern, killing any kind of storm system. The new run holds some energy back, leading to a prolonged period of heavy, overrunning precipitation:

That’s likely keeping the cold too far to the west, but still results in this for Christmas Night and Tuesday:

The low-level cold air is typically shown too far west on forecast models.

Regardless, you’re seeing the back and forth on all the models as they continue to try and figure out exactly what to do.

I will keep with my original thoughts that are now a week old: Every mode of precipitation is on the table for Christmas weekend into early Christmas week. Rain, snow, ice or a combo of the three are all possible. Your Christmas may be wet or it may be white, or you may get both. It’s still way too early to tell.

I’m still riding this one week old map and think it’s in excellent shape:

Looking farther down the road… The CFS 5 day temperature anomaly maps (In Celsius) show one heck of a push of cold that hangs tough into January.

Here’s the period for Christmas week:

Here’s the 5 days around the New Year:

It stays cold deep into the New Year:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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