A heck of a Christmas weekend setup

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have some rain impacting parts of Kentucky, but it’s the Christmas weekend getting all the attention, and for good reason. Two systems will affect our weather with a ton of rain to start, and the potential for some white to end it.

Wednesday’s rain is mainly across the southern half of the state, with just a shower or two across the north. Regional radar tracks the action:

Highs range from the upper 40s to low 50s.

Thursday looks good, with a mix of sun and clouds, and highs hitting the low and middle 50s. Make sure to enjoy this, because things are going to take on a much different look for Christmas weekend.

Here’s a preview of how things are looking at this point:

  • Heavy rain and some thunder is likely to start the Christmas weekend. This could bring a local high-water threat to Central and Western Kentucky  on Friday and early Saturday.
  • Winds could be a big player, with gusts of 40 mph or greater.
  • Temps crash Saturday, with a chance of a mix or some light snow showing up at the end of the day.
  • A wave of low pressure develops and brings the chance of snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The extent of this is a long way from being determined. That said, we have a real chance for, at least, some light snow for the big day.
  • Arctic air comes in behind all this for Christmas Day and beyond.

Our Friday cold front marches slowly across the state, allowing for low pressure to develop along it. This brings heavy rainfall into our region, with the potential for local high water problems. The European  model shows some very amped-up rain totals through early Saturday:

The GFS is finally correcting toward this same idea:

Wind also will be a big player as the cold air surges in Friday night and early Saturday. Gusts of 40 mph or greater will be possible. Thunderstorms could flare up, too.

Temps crash from west to east on Saturday, with that first round ending as some mix or light snow.

That front then stops just to our east on Sunday, allowing for another wave of low pressure to develop and roll northeastward along it. The European model continues to get a littler snowier around here for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day:

Let’s watch that trend and see if the models continue to get a little stronger with that wave. Here’s the snow map from that run:

The new GFS has: nothing. Literally, nothing anywhere in the east:

Is that possible? Only if the polar vortex moves in and absolutely crushes everything with bitter cold. As of now, it’s the GFS verses the other models.

 

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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