Breaking down the Christmas weekend pattern

Good Thursday, folks. We have a very, very busy Christmas weekend of weather across our part of the world. It’s a pattern that will produce heavy rainfall, a big temp crash, and the possibility of some light snow.

Let’s start with Thursdayd. A warm front lifts to the north and might give us a late-day shower or some sprinkles:

Temps will climb most of the day and hit the 50s. We could stay there all night into Friday. That’s when we find a strong cold front moving in. Low pressure develops along this front, bringing heavy rain through the region,

The potential is there for a general 1 to 3 inches of rain through early Saturday:

Locally higher amounts will be possible, raising the risk of some local high-water problems to develop.

Temps on Saturday will crash from northwest to southeast, leading to the potential for a mix of rain and snow to develop. The NAM shows the best chance across north-central Kentucky:

That same model is trying to show a little slush across far Northern Kentucky by Saturday afternoon:

From there, much colder air sinks in for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  The models have been all over the place with whether or not there will be some snow around here. The GFS indicates only some festive flakes:

Recent runs of the European model have been showing a much broader swath of light snow:

The flow looks increasingly faster into early next week, with another flurry or light snow maker trying to push in by Christmas night or Tuesday.

A bigger system is showing up on all the models for the end of next week.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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