A wild setup on the way

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a few milder days ahead of us, but some dramatic changes are on the way later this week into the weekend. That’s when we see another extreme-looking pattern settling into the region. This could bring everything from thunderstorms to snow.

Before we get to all that, we have some ugly weather out there Tuesday. Fog and low clouds will be stubborn, with areas of drizzle hanging around.

A few showers will then develop Tuesday night, as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Here’s regional radar to track whatever is out there:

The setup for later this week into the weekend continues to look pretty awesome for weather nerds. We have a significant trough digging through the region Friday and Saturday. Check out the negative tilt on this trough:

That setup will spawn a major temperature gradient and will fire up a big Ohio Valley winter storm.

Here’s the GFS for Thursday afternoon:

Temps then crash from west to east Thursday night into Friday. Here’s the GFS by Friday night:

That’s a 40- to 50-degree swing in roughly 24 to 30 hours.

This gradient is showing up along a modified arctic front, with low pressure developing along it. That low is likely to target the Ohio Valley for a winter storm Friday and Saturday. The exact track of this low will determine what happens in your backyard, and it’s too early to know how that plays out.

The latest GFS has a nice hit for our region:

The European model is the most wrapped up with this storm; therefore, it’s a little slower and farther west. However, we are seeing the model trend farther east with this storm.

If we look at the individual members of the GFS ensembles, we find many of them targeting the Bluegrass State:

It’s too early to tell just how much of an impact this will have on the weather where you live, but it’s not as if we are talking about a system a week away. This could begin as early as Thursday night.

Bitterly cold air comes in behind that system, with single digits possible again. That sets the stage for another possible system to throw some winter weather at us early next week:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments