Good Thursday, everyone. While we are flirting with record highs out there today, a winter storm is brewing and it is rolling our way in less than 24 hours. This setup goes from mild to wild in a hurry late Thursday night and Friday morning.
Here’s a quick breakdown:
- Highs Thursday reach the middle 60s, potentially setting another record high in Lexington. 66 is the number to shoot for.
- Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder will be possible.
- Friday morning gets the winter party started. Cold air surges in from the west, with a 20- to 30-degree temperature drop in less than an hour.
- Rain quickly changes to sleet, freezing rain then snow from west to east.
- Significant amounts of snow and ice are possible from midday Friday through Saturday morning.
Here’s my current call for ice and snowfall:
Those numbers will be updated later Thursday, as I continue to get a better handle on how the storm looks to behave.
As far as models go, I like what the European model is doing. Watch the quick transition to ice and snow starting early Friday, with snow going through Saturday morning:
The freezing rain forecast from that model is impressive, especially across the west:
Here’s the snow forecast that comes on top of the freezing rain:
The NAM is similar to that, but isn’t as enthusiastic with the snow band in central Kentucky, The model is still spitting some hefty amounts:
The high-res NAM goes only through 7 a.m. Saturday, but you can see it picking up on the heavy snow band, but just a bit west of the European model and the map from above:
That run of the NAM is trending eastward with that main snow setup.
Frigid temps come in behind this system over the weekend, with another snow maker quickly moving in Monday and Tuesday:
I will have another update later Thursday, so check back. Have a great day and take care.