Watching for the return of winter

Good Sunday to one and all. Some better weather is blowing into the region today, but it’s Old Man Winter who is getting ready to steal the show. Snow chances are on the way for the week ahead.

Today starts with rain holding on across the east and southeast, but that should quickly push away by afternoon. Skies will become partly sunny with upper 40s and low 50s:

Another cold front is on the way by early Monday and will bring light snow and snow showers back into the region. Some light accumulations are possible by Monday night and early Tuesday, especially across the north and:

European

GFS

Some cancellations and delays are possible Tuesday, especially in the east.

I have no changes to the thoughts on the late week system. The pattern appears to be setup for a potential significant winter weather event across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  As with any system, the devil is in the details, especially from several days out. You could get only get a little snow, or you could get quite a bit more. It’s just too early in the game.

Here are the determining factors on how much winter weather we get:

  • Much depends on where the front is as the wave of low pressure develops along it.
  • Areas along and north and west of the track of the low would have the best chance for accumulating snows.
  • How strong does this wave of low pressure get?

We still have a few days before those details are ironed out, so let’s just sit back and track how it all unfolds. As I always say, never get caught up in any one model run, especially in this time frame. Models in that 3-6 day window seem to lose their way a little, only to find it again within the 3 day window.

The European Model shows a healthy hit for our region:

The GFS has a similar idea to what it’s been showing for many days now:

The Canadian Model has a slower frontal passage, leading to a slightly farther north low. It is currently an outlier amongst all the models:

Make it a great day and take care.

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