Active setup continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have some decent weather out there today, but this small break in our active pattern isn’t going to last long. As a matter of fact, it’s another heavy rain event targeting the region over the next few days.

Highs today will be in the 40s north, with 50s in the south and southeast. Even in a “break”, I can’t rule out a stray shower or two in the south and east:

The focus going forward is on a the potential for more flooding rains. The setup over the next few weeks looks to put Kentucky sandwiched between mild air in the southeast and cold air to our north and northwest. As these two air masses fight it out, that should lead to a very active storm track across our region.

While I expect some winter weather systems to try and sneak into the region, my concern is we end up with multiple heavy rain events. That would put our region right in the bulls eye of potential high water issues:

Given the flooding we are still dealing with in some areas, the bluegrass state (and some of the surrounding states) won’t be able to handle much more water. Unfortunately, more is on the way and it comes this week.

Showers increase on Wednesday, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms arriving Thursday into Friday. That’s when a cold front drops in from the northwest, with waves of low pressure along it. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall across much of the region, and this may lead to additional high water issues.

Cold air coming in behind this late Friday, could mean a bit of a mix.

Another storm will then target the region early next week, bringing more heavy rain. Check out the rainfall forecast from the GFS over the next week:

That can lead to some significant issues in our part of the world.

Make it a great day and take care.

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